Week 3 of the NFL preseason tends to be the most important, as final depth chart battles are generally sorted out. So let's try to make sense of the fantasy implications of Saturday's results.
Chiefs -- Tyreek Hill is in midseason form, while Pat Mahomes looks ready to be a mid-range QB2 (I'm simply not sold on him as a top-12 option with so many proven QB1s on the board). Spencer Ware played and didn't get hurt, which is the best he could have hoped for. As for Kareem Hunt, take note that Mahomes runs a lot more than his predecessor, Alex Smith, which could rob Hunt of a little value. Additionally, Hunt was last year's third best fantasy RB inside opponents' five-yard line despite touching the ball only 11 times (at least a dozen RBs earned more touches that close to the end zone). Hunt will be hard-pressed to replicate that efficiency, which reinforces why on my draft board he's ranked a few spots below his ADP.
Bears -- There was finally a Kevin White sighting, and this time he was in the end zone instead of writhing on the ground. The perennially injured former first-round pick made a great move to get wide open for a 29-yard score. Although it might be too little, too late to earn a spot among Chicago's top-3 receivers, White will start the season as one of the most physically talented players on the sidelines. Elsewhere, Chase Daniel threw his 10th and 11th preseason TD passes in the past five years. (Yes, sadly I researched that. Worth it? Probably not.)
Texans -- Deshaun Watson played terribly, but he appears to be healthy. Those who drafted him will take that combo over the alternative. And don't read too much into Alfred Blue's impressive 5/45/1 rushing line. In 56 career contests, his best YPC output was 7.6 (five rushes for 38 years). His career 3.65 YPC and minimal passing role makes him a bottom-half handcuff if D'Onta Foreman is shelved to start the season.
Rams -- In July I took chances on nine handcuffs in my deep-bench league. Two or three appear to be droppable at this point, but two (John Kelly and James Conner) are possible RB1s if their starter goes down. Kelly has been a workhorse in all three preseason contests: 46 carries for 197 yards (4.3 YPC) and three TDs. As a top-10 handcuff entering Week 1, his RB-75 ADP is insanely low. The Top 300 rankings spreadsheet subscribers received last night reflect this shift.
Titans -- Marcus Mariota, Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis, and Corey Davis have all looked ordinary at best in August, while Delanie Walker remains out. All summer I've viewed Mariota and Davis as tangible bargains at their ADPs. Despite these being mostly meaningless games, it's hard to maintain that thinking.
Steelers -- James Washington and Jesse James got hurt, though it's too early to know the severity. Elsewhere, James Conner was slightly outplayed by rookie Jaylen Samuels. But it's fair to say Conner is the more complete back, and he looked terrific in his past two preseason contests. His RB-69 ADP no longer makes sense, as he's played himself into a large role if Le'Veon Bell is sidelined. Draft him as a top-5 handcuff.
49ers -- Last year Alfred Morris looked terrific behind Dallas's exceptional offensive line; he picked up where he left off in yesterday's matchup and is a great bet to stick with the team well into the season. And Jimmy Garoppolo ends his preseason with a 305/1/1 line on 22-for-37 passing. Those like me who believe he's overrated feel smug about how right we are (well, I can speak only for myself). But seriously, none of these games matter, and what I say doesn't matter. Jimmy G. could go either way this season, and those who believe he's the real deal could very well win a title with him. Looking ahead to December, I can't wait to see how this all turns out.
Colts -- Indy's QBs combined for 43 rushing yards on eight carries. Their RBs combined for 37 rushing yards on 27 carries. If anyone knows who's going to lead this backfield, they're psychic. And if any of these backs rushes for more than 700 yards this season, I'll be shocked.
Ravens -- Is Alex Collins a regression candidate? I keep going back and forth in my head, yet he remains a mid-to-high RB2 based on anticipated volume in a run-friendly offense. With on three carries this preseason, he's a bit of an enigma heading into Week 1.
Dolphins -- Remember all the talk coming out of camp that Frank Gore will play a meaningful role alongside Kenyan Drake? Well, there's a reason Gore's been an RB7/8 on my draft board for most of the summer. Drake has looked outstanding this month. His 35-year-old backfield mate has looked out-of-place.
Falcons -- Tevin Coleman is a big reason why I don't like Devonta Freeman at his RB-12 ADP. This is one of those cases where past production isn't an accurate indicator of future production. Coleman is a steal at his RB-30 ADP.
Jaguars -- Probably the biggest news of the evening, Marqise Lee suffered a potentially devastating knee injury. If it's as bad as it looked, Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook, and Donte Moncrief will jump up draft boards, as Lee's expected WR4 production will need to be redistributed elsewhere.
Saints -- Given the chance to lock up a large role weeks 1-4, Jonathan Williams fell short last night with minus-3 yards on three carries. Keep an ear out on this one, because a 10-touch Williams to start the year could give deep-leaguers a cheap RB3.
Chargers -- Here's what I wrote last November: "Coming off a bye week, [Melvin] Gordon was abysmal yesterday, while upstart backup Austin Ekeler took a big step forward. As strange as it might sound, it’s entirely conceivable Gordon won’t be the Chargers’ Week 1 starter next season." On the one hand, man I was wrong. On the other hand, Ekeler's looked fantastic this preseason and is a near-lock for RB2+ numbers if Gordon gets hurt. And I still believe he's capable of cutting into Gordon's usage. We'll see what happens . . .
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Chiefs -- Tyreek Hill is in midseason form, while Pat Mahomes looks ready to be a mid-range QB2 (I'm simply not sold on him as a top-12 option with so many proven QB1s on the board). Spencer Ware played and didn't get hurt, which is the best he could have hoped for. As for Kareem Hunt, take note that Mahomes runs a lot more than his predecessor, Alex Smith, which could rob Hunt of a little value. Additionally, Hunt was last year's third best fantasy RB inside opponents' five-yard line despite touching the ball only 11 times (at least a dozen RBs earned more touches that close to the end zone). Hunt will be hard-pressed to replicate that efficiency, which reinforces why on my draft board he's ranked a few spots below his ADP.
Bears -- There was finally a Kevin White sighting, and this time he was in the end zone instead of writhing on the ground. The perennially injured former first-round pick made a great move to get wide open for a 29-yard score. Although it might be too little, too late to earn a spot among Chicago's top-3 receivers, White will start the season as one of the most physically talented players on the sidelines. Elsewhere, Chase Daniel threw his 10th and 11th preseason TD passes in the past five years. (Yes, sadly I researched that. Worth it? Probably not.)
Texans -- Deshaun Watson played terribly, but he appears to be healthy. Those who drafted him will take that combo over the alternative. And don't read too much into Alfred Blue's impressive 5/45/1 rushing line. In 56 career contests, his best YPC output was 7.6 (five rushes for 38 years). His career 3.65 YPC and minimal passing role makes him a bottom-half handcuff if D'Onta Foreman is shelved to start the season.
Rams -- In July I took chances on nine handcuffs in my deep-bench league. Two or three appear to be droppable at this point, but two (John Kelly and James Conner) are possible RB1s if their starter goes down. Kelly has been a workhorse in all three preseason contests: 46 carries for 197 yards (4.3 YPC) and three TDs. As a top-10 handcuff entering Week 1, his RB-75 ADP is insanely low. The Top 300 rankings spreadsheet subscribers received last night reflect this shift.
Titans -- Marcus Mariota, Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis, and Corey Davis have all looked ordinary at best in August, while Delanie Walker remains out. All summer I've viewed Mariota and Davis as tangible bargains at their ADPs. Despite these being mostly meaningless games, it's hard to maintain that thinking.
Steelers -- James Washington and Jesse James got hurt, though it's too early to know the severity. Elsewhere, James Conner was slightly outplayed by rookie Jaylen Samuels. But it's fair to say Conner is the more complete back, and he looked terrific in his past two preseason contests. His RB-69 ADP no longer makes sense, as he's played himself into a large role if Le'Veon Bell is sidelined. Draft him as a top-5 handcuff.
49ers -- Last year Alfred Morris looked terrific behind Dallas's exceptional offensive line; he picked up where he left off in yesterday's matchup and is a great bet to stick with the team well into the season. And Jimmy Garoppolo ends his preseason with a 305/1/1 line on 22-for-37 passing. Those like me who believe he's overrated feel smug about how right we are (well, I can speak only for myself). But seriously, none of these games matter, and what I say doesn't matter. Jimmy G. could go either way this season, and those who believe he's the real deal could very well win a title with him. Looking ahead to December, I can't wait to see how this all turns out.
Colts -- Indy's QBs combined for 43 rushing yards on eight carries. Their RBs combined for 37 rushing yards on 27 carries. If anyone knows who's going to lead this backfield, they're psychic. And if any of these backs rushes for more than 700 yards this season, I'll be shocked.
Ravens -- Is Alex Collins a regression candidate? I keep going back and forth in my head, yet he remains a mid-to-high RB2 based on anticipated volume in a run-friendly offense. With on three carries this preseason, he's a bit of an enigma heading into Week 1.
Dolphins -- Remember all the talk coming out of camp that Frank Gore will play a meaningful role alongside Kenyan Drake? Well, there's a reason Gore's been an RB7/8 on my draft board for most of the summer. Drake has looked outstanding this month. His 35-year-old backfield mate has looked out-of-place.
Falcons -- Tevin Coleman is a big reason why I don't like Devonta Freeman at his RB-12 ADP. This is one of those cases where past production isn't an accurate indicator of future production. Coleman is a steal at his RB-30 ADP.
Jaguars -- Probably the biggest news of the evening, Marqise Lee suffered a potentially devastating knee injury. If it's as bad as it looked, Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook, and Donte Moncrief will jump up draft boards, as Lee's expected WR4 production will need to be redistributed elsewhere.
Saints -- Given the chance to lock up a large role weeks 1-4, Jonathan Williams fell short last night with minus-3 yards on three carries. Keep an ear out on this one, because a 10-touch Williams to start the year could give deep-leaguers a cheap RB3.
Chargers -- Here's what I wrote last November: "Coming off a bye week, [Melvin] Gordon was abysmal yesterday, while upstart backup Austin Ekeler took a big step forward. As strange as it might sound, it’s entirely conceivable Gordon won’t be the Chargers’ Week 1 starter next season." On the one hand, man I was wrong. On the other hand, Ekeler's looked fantastic this preseason and is a near-lock for RB2+ numbers if Gordon gets hurt. And I still believe he's capable of cutting into Gordon's usage. We'll see what happens . . .
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