What's the more likely outcome for Adrian Peterson this season? A 1,000+/6+ partial bellcow line that nets him RB3 status . . . or a pulled hamstring in Week 2 that keeps him out six weeks, culminating in a split-time RB5/6 season? After yesterday's outburst, it would seem hard to bet against him. Samaje Perine remains on the shelf, Kapri Bibbs is a third-down backup, and Rob Kelley could be a cut candidate. That leaves only Chris Thompson as a seemingly reliable complement to AP Week 1.
And while it's a no-brainer to select Peterson at some point in a draft, my concern is that people will take yesterday's output (11 carries for 56 yards) and assume he's now Washington's lead back. It's never that simple, even for a Hall-of-Fame talent. He's missed 19 games the past two seasons due to knee, groin, and neck injuries. He's 33-and-a-half years old. He's mostly irrelevant in the passing game. His RB ADP has jumped to 49 and realistically could crack the top 40 within the week. It's an overreaction to one preseason game. It's natural to see the past in the present -- to watch AP run and think he can come close to replicating his last great campaign (in 2015).
AP has to thread the needle to be a weekly starter. While he merits consideration as a short-term plug-and-play, I'd be shocked if we're still talking about him in October.
In other preseason games last night, Peyton Barber and Royce Freeman further distanced themselves from Ronald Jones and Devontae Booker, respectively, while Wayne Gallman did the same to Jonathan Stewart in the battle for Giant handcuff duties. Speaking of the G-Men, Sterling Shepard caught all seven of his targets for 73 yards. Last year he was one of only nine wideouts to catch more than 70% of their targets. I've been saying he's underrated for two years, and as recently as this week. Even with OBJ on the field, Shepard is gearing up for the best season of his career.
And who's that kicking five field goals, including two from 50+? Brandon McManus, one of my top three "best value" kickers for the second time in three years. Subscribers to my rankings have known for weeks that the K-21 ADP Bronco has weekly starter appeal as my 13th ranked kicker.
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A longtime FF4W commenter asked yesterday how bonus points for long TD passes and other big plays would impact QB rankings. This is a fairly common question. My best advice is always to research the numbers so you can quantitatively assess how such scoring rules would influence QB fantasy scoring.
Since I had a little available time early this morning, I ran some quick numbers. Since 2015 (spanning 39 games), Aaron Rodgers has had only four 40-yard pass TDs compared to nine for Cam Newton, 10 for Russell Wilson, and 13 for Tom Brady. It's interesting because going into it, even though Rodgers played 5-9 fewer games than these other QBs, I would have thought he'd benefit somewhat from a long-TD-pass scoring bonus. Instead, based on recent per-game output, he'd take a hit.
Another stat: Rodgers has had 10 300-yard passing games since 2015 compared to eight for Cam, seven for Wilson, and 18 for Brady. This played out largely as expected, with Cam and Wilson counterbalancing lower per-game passing yardage with a stronger ground game (though they've netted only one 100-yard rushing game between them since 2015).
This is all to say that if we want to know the impact of a scoring change, run the numbers. It might take a few minutes to make a cursory assessment, or an hour or more for a deep dive. Whatever you decide, it always beats guessing.
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And while it's a no-brainer to select Peterson at some point in a draft, my concern is that people will take yesterday's output (11 carries for 56 yards) and assume he's now Washington's lead back. It's never that simple, even for a Hall-of-Fame talent. He's missed 19 games the past two seasons due to knee, groin, and neck injuries. He's 33-and-a-half years old. He's mostly irrelevant in the passing game. His RB ADP has jumped to 49 and realistically could crack the top 40 within the week. It's an overreaction to one preseason game. It's natural to see the past in the present -- to watch AP run and think he can come close to replicating his last great campaign (in 2015).
AP has to thread the needle to be a weekly starter. While he merits consideration as a short-term plug-and-play, I'd be shocked if we're still talking about him in October.
In other preseason games last night, Peyton Barber and Royce Freeman further distanced themselves from Ronald Jones and Devontae Booker, respectively, while Wayne Gallman did the same to Jonathan Stewart in the battle for Giant handcuff duties. Speaking of the G-Men, Sterling Shepard caught all seven of his targets for 73 yards. Last year he was one of only nine wideouts to catch more than 70% of their targets. I've been saying he's underrated for two years, and as recently as this week. Even with OBJ on the field, Shepard is gearing up for the best season of his career.
And who's that kicking five field goals, including two from 50+? Brandon McManus, one of my top three "best value" kickers for the second time in three years. Subscribers to my rankings have known for weeks that the K-21 ADP Bronco has weekly starter appeal as my 13th ranked kicker.
--
A longtime FF4W commenter asked yesterday how bonus points for long TD passes and other big plays would impact QB rankings. This is a fairly common question. My best advice is always to research the numbers so you can quantitatively assess how such scoring rules would influence QB fantasy scoring.
Since I had a little available time early this morning, I ran some quick numbers. Since 2015 (spanning 39 games), Aaron Rodgers has had only four 40-yard pass TDs compared to nine for Cam Newton, 10 for Russell Wilson, and 13 for Tom Brady. It's interesting because going into it, even though Rodgers played 5-9 fewer games than these other QBs, I would have thought he'd benefit somewhat from a long-TD-pass scoring bonus. Instead, based on recent per-game output, he'd take a hit.
Another stat: Rodgers has had 10 300-yard passing games since 2015 compared to eight for Cam, seven for Wilson, and 18 for Brady. This played out largely as expected, with Cam and Wilson counterbalancing lower per-game passing yardage with a stronger ground game (though they've netted only one 100-yard rushing game between them since 2015).
This is all to say that if we want to know the impact of a scoring change, run the numbers. It might take a few minutes to make a cursory assessment, or an hour or more for a deep dive. Whatever you decide, it always beats guessing.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota