Last night the NFL returned in the form of a fairly meaningless, relatively un-entertaining contest between two teams that were more meaningful and more entertaining 5-10 years ago. Welcome to preseason football, where fantasy managers' biggest hope is for their drafted players not to get hurt.
And yet, there is one big takeaway: Joe Flacco's hold on the starting job remains surprisingly strong. Rookie Lamar Jackson fell short of diminutive expectations, throwing for only 33 yards on 4-for-10 passing while starting the entire second half. His 25 yards on eight carries were mostly irrelevant. While this was Jackson's first "NFL" action, and while he's surely feeling the pressure to perform, deep-leaguers and two-QB leaguers who drafted Flacco very late can breathe much easier. Jackson might be a useful gadget player in his first NFL season, but he doesn't yet look NFL-ready.
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As FF4W Preseason Rankings subscribers know, I regularly track ADP shifts throughout the summer, comparing players' average draft positions with my positional rankings to highlight potential bargains and busts. So I thought it would be useful this morning to walk through some of the most dramatic movers of the past two weeks. To be clear, these are ADP movers, based on near-universal online drafting. If you want a detailed rundown of my rankings, you know where to look:
At QB, Andrew Luck's ADP has moved from 11 to 9. That's fairly significant given he'd been sitting at 11 for several weeks before. Seemingly in good health and ready to roll Week 1, Luck is now perceived to be a locked-in QB1, with upward momentum on his side. On the flip side, Tyrod Taylor endures the biggest drop among all starting QBs, falling from 25th to 29th. I think people are overreacting to Baker Mayfield's positive camp reviews; Taylor remains a steal, even if he starts only half the season.
At RB, eyeing a third-down role, C.J. Prosise comes in at #77 after previously posting an RB-87 ADP. He's one injury away from Chris Carson or Rashaad Penny from catapulting into the RB5/6 conversation. On the flip side, Charcandrick West drops from 70 to outside the top 100 on news that he might be cut, as well as reports that Spencer Ware should slide into the handcuff role in Kansas City. Chris Ivory is one of the biggest movers overall, bumping up from 85 to 58. Many of you know I drafted him in my league a month ago as the Bills' likely starter if LeSean McCoy misses time. He was the 173rd player taken, which at the time was about 50 spots too early. Now it looks like a potential steal.
Elsewhere, LeSean McCoy's descent continues -- formerly 13th, now 16th. He'll be a "buy" if accusations against him prove false. But he remains one of the riskiest top-20 RBs in fantasy. I've mentioned Ito Smith before, and he's relevant once again: an ADP bump from 90 to 80. He remains an undervalued deep-league stash, as an injury to Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman could earn him some playing time. And Marlon Mack is somehow holding study at #32, despite all signs point to a hot-hand backfield in Indy. Mack's value will drop in the coming weeks. And Robert Kelley dives from 81 to 102 as Derrius Guice strengthens his positioning as Washington's unquestioned #1 RB.
The most notable WR shift is really a lack of movement: Jeremy Kerley remains universally undraftable with a WR-148 ADP, yet he'll start the season as Buffalo's #2 or #3 receiver. As we get closer to September, expect a sharp ADP spike. Meanwhile, John Ross goes from 77 to 75, and he'll likely reach the 60s by next week with Cincy cutting 2017 #2 wideout Brandon LaFell. Ross is a name to watch this month.
At TE, Antonio Gates has jumped from 50 to 41 on news that the Chargers might bring him back. Gates would be a TD-dependent TE2 most weeks, which isn't the worst investment you can make with your last pick in deeper leagues.
One of my favorite underrated kickers, Graham Gano, shifts from 17 to 14, moving close to my summer-long ranking of #11. More notably, Josh Lambo -- as some of you might remember, my favorite undervalued kicker a couple years ago -- has been sitting at #14 on my draft board for weeks despite an ADP outside the top 24. In the couple weeks he's jumped to 13th.
And yet, there is one big takeaway: Joe Flacco's hold on the starting job remains surprisingly strong. Rookie Lamar Jackson fell short of diminutive expectations, throwing for only 33 yards on 4-for-10 passing while starting the entire second half. His 25 yards on eight carries were mostly irrelevant. While this was Jackson's first "NFL" action, and while he's surely feeling the pressure to perform, deep-leaguers and two-QB leaguers who drafted Flacco very late can breathe much easier. Jackson might be a useful gadget player in his first NFL season, but he doesn't yet look NFL-ready.
--
As FF4W Preseason Rankings subscribers know, I regularly track ADP shifts throughout the summer, comparing players' average draft positions with my positional rankings to highlight potential bargains and busts. So I thought it would be useful this morning to walk through some of the most dramatic movers of the past two weeks. To be clear, these are ADP movers, based on near-universal online drafting. If you want a detailed rundown of my rankings, you know where to look:
At QB, Andrew Luck's ADP has moved from 11 to 9. That's fairly significant given he'd been sitting at 11 for several weeks before. Seemingly in good health and ready to roll Week 1, Luck is now perceived to be a locked-in QB1, with upward momentum on his side. On the flip side, Tyrod Taylor endures the biggest drop among all starting QBs, falling from 25th to 29th. I think people are overreacting to Baker Mayfield's positive camp reviews; Taylor remains a steal, even if he starts only half the season.
At RB, eyeing a third-down role, C.J. Prosise comes in at #77 after previously posting an RB-87 ADP. He's one injury away from Chris Carson or Rashaad Penny from catapulting into the RB5/6 conversation. On the flip side, Charcandrick West drops from 70 to outside the top 100 on news that he might be cut, as well as reports that Spencer Ware should slide into the handcuff role in Kansas City. Chris Ivory is one of the biggest movers overall, bumping up from 85 to 58. Many of you know I drafted him in my league a month ago as the Bills' likely starter if LeSean McCoy misses time. He was the 173rd player taken, which at the time was about 50 spots too early. Now it looks like a potential steal.
Elsewhere, LeSean McCoy's descent continues -- formerly 13th, now 16th. He'll be a "buy" if accusations against him prove false. But he remains one of the riskiest top-20 RBs in fantasy. I've mentioned Ito Smith before, and he's relevant once again: an ADP bump from 90 to 80. He remains an undervalued deep-league stash, as an injury to Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman could earn him some playing time. And Marlon Mack is somehow holding study at #32, despite all signs point to a hot-hand backfield in Indy. Mack's value will drop in the coming weeks. And Robert Kelley dives from 81 to 102 as Derrius Guice strengthens his positioning as Washington's unquestioned #1 RB.
The most notable WR shift is really a lack of movement: Jeremy Kerley remains universally undraftable with a WR-148 ADP, yet he'll start the season as Buffalo's #2 or #3 receiver. As we get closer to September, expect a sharp ADP spike. Meanwhile, John Ross goes from 77 to 75, and he'll likely reach the 60s by next week with Cincy cutting 2017 #2 wideout Brandon LaFell. Ross is a name to watch this month.
At TE, Antonio Gates has jumped from 50 to 41 on news that the Chargers might bring him back. Gates would be a TD-dependent TE2 most weeks, which isn't the worst investment you can make with your last pick in deeper leagues.
One of my favorite underrated kickers, Graham Gano, shifts from 17 to 14, moving close to my summer-long ranking of #11. More notably, Josh Lambo -- as some of you might remember, my favorite undervalued kicker a couple years ago -- has been sitting at #14 on my draft board for weeks despite an ADP outside the top 24. In the couple weeks he's jumped to 13th.