With many of you drafting this past weekend, draft strategy questions have ramped up. Two things about that . . .
First, on the FF4W website (where folks sign up for the preseason draft rankings: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com), there's a "Fantasy-pedia" tab. This includes links to about 20-25 past columns on topics that include draft strategies, injuries, lineups and rosters, prediction results, stats, and trade strategies. The draft portion includes pieces on auction and snake draft strategies. Hopefully this stuff might still be useful to some of you.
Second, I'm fielding a lot of "Should I take RB-B or WR-A at pick #7? There's no absolute "right answer" on which guy to take in the first round. Last year some of you might have been torn over whether to take OBJ or Julio Jones at, say, pick #10. Well, it didn't matter, because the biggest factor for whether a first rounder helps or hurts you is health. Right before Week 1 last year, NFL.com assembled 10 experts to do a mock draft: www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000837547/article/final-fantasy-football-analyst-ppr-mock-draft-of-2017.
The first-round picks turned out to be the following: three RB1s, three WR1s, an RB2, a WR2, a WR who played only four games, and an RB who didn't even complete a game. In other words, there were six solid picks (though only two were unquestionably first-round worthy), two moderate underperformers, and two unmitigated busts.
The previous year, NFL.com's experts' first-round selections produced an RB1, three WR1s, an RB2, a WR3, a WR4 who missed three games, a WR who missed six games, and a TE who missed eight games. In other words, four solid picks (though only three were first-round worthy), one moderate underperformer, and four busts ranging from bad to disastrously bad.
So when you're asking whether I'd draft David Johnson or Zeke Elliott at #3, even though Zeke is ahead on my draft board, it's still objectively a toss-up. It'll still likely come down to which guy stays healthier. While I prefer Zeke's odds, a good case could be made for Johnson. If both play 16 games, there's a good chance both will turn out to be solid first-round picks.
The following chart encapsulates the impact of injuries on tiered players. Each year, many QB2s, RB2s, WR2s, and TE2s would have been top-12 positional talents had they not missed games. And the opposite is true for the many QB1s, RB1s, WR1s, and TE1s who would have been lower-tier producers had they sat 2-3 or more games.
So don't overthink your first-round pick. Save your brain for the middle rounds.
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First, on the FF4W website (where folks sign up for the preseason draft rankings: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com), there's a "Fantasy-pedia" tab. This includes links to about 20-25 past columns on topics that include draft strategies, injuries, lineups and rosters, prediction results, stats, and trade strategies. The draft portion includes pieces on auction and snake draft strategies. Hopefully this stuff might still be useful to some of you.
Second, I'm fielding a lot of "Should I take RB-B or WR-A at pick #7? There's no absolute "right answer" on which guy to take in the first round. Last year some of you might have been torn over whether to take OBJ or Julio Jones at, say, pick #10. Well, it didn't matter, because the biggest factor for whether a first rounder helps or hurts you is health. Right before Week 1 last year, NFL.com assembled 10 experts to do a mock draft: www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000837547/article/final-fantasy-football-analyst-ppr-mock-draft-of-2017.
The first-round picks turned out to be the following: three RB1s, three WR1s, an RB2, a WR2, a WR who played only four games, and an RB who didn't even complete a game. In other words, there were six solid picks (though only two were unquestionably first-round worthy), two moderate underperformers, and two unmitigated busts.
The previous year, NFL.com's experts' first-round selections produced an RB1, three WR1s, an RB2, a WR3, a WR4 who missed three games, a WR who missed six games, and a TE who missed eight games. In other words, four solid picks (though only three were first-round worthy), one moderate underperformer, and four busts ranging from bad to disastrously bad.
So when you're asking whether I'd draft David Johnson or Zeke Elliott at #3, even though Zeke is ahead on my draft board, it's still objectively a toss-up. It'll still likely come down to which guy stays healthier. While I prefer Zeke's odds, a good case could be made for Johnson. If both play 16 games, there's a good chance both will turn out to be solid first-round picks.
The following chart encapsulates the impact of injuries on tiered players. Each year, many QB2s, RB2s, WR2s, and TE2s would have been top-12 positional talents had they not missed games. And the opposite is true for the many QB1s, RB1s, WR1s, and TE1s who would have been lower-tier producers had they sat 2-3 or more games.
So don't overthink your first-round pick. Save your brain for the middle rounds.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota