It's been a weird summer for the defending Super Bowl champions. Top-5 QB Carson Wentz remains questionable to start the season while recovering from a torn ACL. Rotator cuff surgery could keep Alshon Jeffery out for some or all of September. And Jay Ajayi has been out the past two weeks with what head coach Doug Peterson termed simply a "lower-body injury." According to my Vagueness Scale, that's one step up from "body injury."
What's a fantasy manager to do? Well, Wentz and Jeffery should be fine once they do take the field, and by "fine" I mean every-week starters. Ajayi (RB-20 ADP) is a different story. I'm increasingly concerned that Corey Clement -- and yes, even Darren Sproles -- will keep Ajayi out of the top 20. Philly's lead back is not highly used in the passing game and didn't get any work inside the opposing 10-yard line last year. While LeGarrette Blount could be blamed for some of that, a good case could be made that Ajayi's 5.8 YPC in seven games for the Eagles was an outlier. I'm letting others take him at his back-end RB2 price.
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For today's contrarian prediction, Ryan Tannehill is an easy QB to trash fantasy-wise. The former eighth overall pick has wallowed in the QB-30 to QB-32 ADP range all summer. He's presently sitting at 32 behind non-starter Lamar Jackson and way behind another non-starter, Baker Mayfield. In fact, the only presumed starting QB he's ahead of is Sam Darnold.
What gives? Well, the 30-year-old is hasn't played in a regular season game in nearly two years. He's lost his #1 receiver (Jarvis Landry). And he's a higher-than-normal re-injury risk. And yet, his near-universal fantasy rankings are a damn harsh indictment of a player who was a top 17 fantasy QB in 2013, 2014, and 2015, during which he never missed a game.
DeVante Parker's weird struggles aside, the team still has plenty of underrated weapons in Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, and Albert Wilson. Rookie TE Mike Gesicki gives Tannehill his best option at that position since Charles Clay in 2015 -- and one with more upside. Meanwhile, the running game should be solid with adept pass-catcher Kenyan Drake leading the way. And an improved offensive line will only help.
In the end, while there are too many high-upside QBs for someone like Tannehill to stand out, his basement-level ratings are completely misguided. He's not the worst or second-worst starting QB. He's a middling option offering streaming value, which makes him very draftable in best-ball and 2-QB leagues. 117 out of 127 experts (92%) rank him outside the top 22, with 59% placing him 27th-35th. He'll absolutely be a top-22 QB this season.
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What's a fantasy manager to do? Well, Wentz and Jeffery should be fine once they do take the field, and by "fine" I mean every-week starters. Ajayi (RB-20 ADP) is a different story. I'm increasingly concerned that Corey Clement -- and yes, even Darren Sproles -- will keep Ajayi out of the top 20. Philly's lead back is not highly used in the passing game and didn't get any work inside the opposing 10-yard line last year. While LeGarrette Blount could be blamed for some of that, a good case could be made that Ajayi's 5.8 YPC in seven games for the Eagles was an outlier. I'm letting others take him at his back-end RB2 price.
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For today's contrarian prediction, Ryan Tannehill is an easy QB to trash fantasy-wise. The former eighth overall pick has wallowed in the QB-30 to QB-32 ADP range all summer. He's presently sitting at 32 behind non-starter Lamar Jackson and way behind another non-starter, Baker Mayfield. In fact, the only presumed starting QB he's ahead of is Sam Darnold.
What gives? Well, the 30-year-old is hasn't played in a regular season game in nearly two years. He's lost his #1 receiver (Jarvis Landry). And he's a higher-than-normal re-injury risk. And yet, his near-universal fantasy rankings are a damn harsh indictment of a player who was a top 17 fantasy QB in 2013, 2014, and 2015, during which he never missed a game.
DeVante Parker's weird struggles aside, the team still has plenty of underrated weapons in Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, and Albert Wilson. Rookie TE Mike Gesicki gives Tannehill his best option at that position since Charles Clay in 2015 -- and one with more upside. Meanwhile, the running game should be solid with adept pass-catcher Kenyan Drake leading the way. And an improved offensive line will only help.
In the end, while there are too many high-upside QBs for someone like Tannehill to stand out, his basement-level ratings are completely misguided. He's not the worst or second-worst starting QB. He's a middling option offering streaming value, which makes him very draftable in best-ball and 2-QB leagues. 117 out of 127 experts (92%) rank him outside the top 22, with 59% placing him 27th-35th. He'll absolutely be a top-22 QB this season.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota