The first very notable injury news of camp is Doug Baldwin, who's expected to miss the next few weeks with a sore knee. He's dropped 10-15 spots on my Top 300 rankings because drafting him is now clearly a greater risk than it was a couple days ago. That said, given his nice upside, what a terrific get in the late fourth or early fifth round if your opponents steer clear.
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Those in very deep leagues and two-QB leagues have to care about more than QB1s. There are several QB2 and QB3 position battles that will mean the difference between a worthwhile flyer and a wasted draft pick. Let's try to make a little some more sense of them today:
Tyrod Taylor (QB-21 ADP) vs. Baker Mayfield (24) -- The rookie Mayfield is reportedly looking good in camp, but that hasn't deterred head coach Hue Jackson from repeatedly stating that Taylor is the starter. Tyrod's 65/21 TD/Turnover ratio in the past three seasons in Buffalo should put most doubters to rest. This is the veteran's job to lose. That said, hopes are higher in Browns Country than at any time in years. A slow start could force Jackson's hand, making Taylor a top 8-10 ceiling, low-floor bargain, while Mayfield is waiver fodder (for now) in most leagues. Keep a close eye on Cleveland's early-season schedule, with four of the first six coming at home. If Taylor can steer the team to at least a 3-3 mark, he should have enough of a leash to get you through at least most of the fantasy regular season.
Jameis Winston (25) vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick (43) -- If you think a healthy Winston will be a lock to start Tampa Bay's final 13 games, consider this: the Bucs have been 20th, 18th, and 18th in points scored during Winston's three-year career, during which the "franchise" QB has compiled an 18-27 record. While it hasn't all been his fault, his three-game suspension to start Year 4 couldn't have come at a worse time, and he'll return to action during a five-game stretch that will find him on the road four times. Fitzpatrick can put up gaudy numbers in this offense, even in some tough early-season contests. There's little doubt Winston will take the reins in Week 4, but I doubt he posts top-20 QB numbers. And if he doesn't return to the field stronger than when he left it -- if the Bucs find themselves 4-8 and struggling on offense -- I wouldn't be surprised if Winston were benched.
Joe Flacco (29) vs. Lamar Jackson (31) -- If Flacco can somehow play a full 16-game season, he'll be a top-20 QB. A retooled receiving corps and solidly performing ground game will make him streaming-relevant. The big question is how the rookie Jackson will be utilized. I believe it will be sparingly, meaning those who snag Flacco relatively late in a two-QB league will be pleased.
Sam Bradford (32) vs. Josh Rosen (33) vs. Mike Glennon (N/A) -- Barring an injury (a serious concern in his case), Bradford should be the Week 1 starter. The problem is he's replacing above-average talent Carson Palmer, so it'll be easy to make apples-to-apples comparisons. If Larry Fitzgerald's numbers are down, if the offense stalls too often in the red zone, . . . if the Cards sputter to a 2-4 start and Bradford can be even partially blamed, look for a rising drumbeat in the rookie Rosen's favor. This is a team in pre-transition, with veterans like Bradford and Fitz combining with young guys like Christian Kirk and Chad Williams and Ricky Seals Jones playing bigger roles, and with Rosen looming nearby. This is not a playoff-caliber roster, which makes Rosen the team's best QB bargain.
Sam Darnold (34) vs. Josh McCown (36) vs. Teddy Bridgewater (42) -- McCown exceeded virtually all expectations last year in what was presumed to be a bottom-barrel offense. But Darnold's ADP is better for a reason. If all key Jets receivers remain healthy and unsuspended, expect the Week 1 starter to be a fantastic streamer in two-QB leagues. And as with most rookie QBs, once Darnold does take over, he'll be there for good, and that gives him a clear advantage in this battle. That, and the Jets' weeks 1-4 contests: @DET, MIA, @CLE, and @JAX. Darnold can survive getting roughed up in what could be some challenging early-season defensive matchups. But McCown might not if he gets the Week 1 nod. I'm betting on Darnold to outperform McCown this season.
Josh Allen (35) vs. A.J. McCarron (37) vs. Nathan Peterman (N/A) -- The toughest battle in one of the league's most troublesome offenses. Buzz out of camp and pre-camp suggests all three are in play for the Week 1 starting gig. Then again, will that be a good thing for whoever's picked? Five of the Bills' first seven games are on the road, and their first three are all against top-10 pass defenses -- including two of last year's top three pass D's. It's a tall order for any QB, especially one with little-or-no NFL experience. If you need to take someone, take Allen -- always take the highly touted rookie over the journeyman backup.
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Those in very deep leagues and two-QB leagues have to care about more than QB1s. There are several QB2 and QB3 position battles that will mean the difference between a worthwhile flyer and a wasted draft pick. Let's try to make a little some more sense of them today:
Tyrod Taylor (QB-21 ADP) vs. Baker Mayfield (24) -- The rookie Mayfield is reportedly looking good in camp, but that hasn't deterred head coach Hue Jackson from repeatedly stating that Taylor is the starter. Tyrod's 65/21 TD/Turnover ratio in the past three seasons in Buffalo should put most doubters to rest. This is the veteran's job to lose. That said, hopes are higher in Browns Country than at any time in years. A slow start could force Jackson's hand, making Taylor a top 8-10 ceiling, low-floor bargain, while Mayfield is waiver fodder (for now) in most leagues. Keep a close eye on Cleveland's early-season schedule, with four of the first six coming at home. If Taylor can steer the team to at least a 3-3 mark, he should have enough of a leash to get you through at least most of the fantasy regular season.
Jameis Winston (25) vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick (43) -- If you think a healthy Winston will be a lock to start Tampa Bay's final 13 games, consider this: the Bucs have been 20th, 18th, and 18th in points scored during Winston's three-year career, during which the "franchise" QB has compiled an 18-27 record. While it hasn't all been his fault, his three-game suspension to start Year 4 couldn't have come at a worse time, and he'll return to action during a five-game stretch that will find him on the road four times. Fitzpatrick can put up gaudy numbers in this offense, even in some tough early-season contests. There's little doubt Winston will take the reins in Week 4, but I doubt he posts top-20 QB numbers. And if he doesn't return to the field stronger than when he left it -- if the Bucs find themselves 4-8 and struggling on offense -- I wouldn't be surprised if Winston were benched.
Joe Flacco (29) vs. Lamar Jackson (31) -- If Flacco can somehow play a full 16-game season, he'll be a top-20 QB. A retooled receiving corps and solidly performing ground game will make him streaming-relevant. The big question is how the rookie Jackson will be utilized. I believe it will be sparingly, meaning those who snag Flacco relatively late in a two-QB league will be pleased.
Sam Bradford (32) vs. Josh Rosen (33) vs. Mike Glennon (N/A) -- Barring an injury (a serious concern in his case), Bradford should be the Week 1 starter. The problem is he's replacing above-average talent Carson Palmer, so it'll be easy to make apples-to-apples comparisons. If Larry Fitzgerald's numbers are down, if the offense stalls too often in the red zone, . . . if the Cards sputter to a 2-4 start and Bradford can be even partially blamed, look for a rising drumbeat in the rookie Rosen's favor. This is a team in pre-transition, with veterans like Bradford and Fitz combining with young guys like Christian Kirk and Chad Williams and Ricky Seals Jones playing bigger roles, and with Rosen looming nearby. This is not a playoff-caliber roster, which makes Rosen the team's best QB bargain.
Sam Darnold (34) vs. Josh McCown (36) vs. Teddy Bridgewater (42) -- McCown exceeded virtually all expectations last year in what was presumed to be a bottom-barrel offense. But Darnold's ADP is better for a reason. If all key Jets receivers remain healthy and unsuspended, expect the Week 1 starter to be a fantastic streamer in two-QB leagues. And as with most rookie QBs, once Darnold does take over, he'll be there for good, and that gives him a clear advantage in this battle. That, and the Jets' weeks 1-4 contests: @DET, MIA, @CLE, and @JAX. Darnold can survive getting roughed up in what could be some challenging early-season defensive matchups. But McCown might not if he gets the Week 1 nod. I'm betting on Darnold to outperform McCown this season.
Josh Allen (35) vs. A.J. McCarron (37) vs. Nathan Peterman (N/A) -- The toughest battle in one of the league's most troublesome offenses. Buzz out of camp and pre-camp suggests all three are in play for the Week 1 starting gig. Then again, will that be a good thing for whoever's picked? Five of the Bills' first seven games are on the road, and their first three are all against top-10 pass defenses -- including two of last year's top three pass D's. It's a tall order for any QB, especially one with little-or-no NFL experience. If you need to take someone, take Allen -- always take the highly touted rookie over the journeyman backup.