Contrarian Predictions #'s 3 and 4: Derek Carr (QB-18 ADP) Will Be a Top 12 QB, and Jordy Nelson (WR-41 ADP) Will Be a Top 30 WR
It's easy to forget about Derek Carr. Most fantasy experts have. After two consecutive top-14 fantasy seasons, the Raiders' franchise QB finished 19th in 2017. He claims a lingering back injury was the culprit. I'm inclined to believe it.
Carr started 2017 with five TDs and zero turnovers as Oakland cruised to 2-0. Then he broke three bones in his back, and his passing attack fell off the rails, as he averaged only 1.2 passing TDs per game, down from 1.8 heading into his fourth season. Also keep in mind his receivers dropped 28 passes last year -- fourth highest in the NFL. And he had less time to throw (2.49 seconds) per pass attempt than 37 other quarterbacks. The team was also third-to-last in turnover differential, intercepting a league-low five balls, leading to a near-league-low time of possession.
Because of these headwinds, all 97 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros place him outside the top 14, and 77% rank him 20th or worse. That is completely nuts. Still only 27 years old, a healthy Carr can easily return to his 2016 QB1 glory. I'm banking on a top-14 finish for the third time in four seasons.
As a relevant side note, some of my Carr support rests on the continued development of the underappreciated, still-only-24-years-old Amari Cooper. In Cooper's best season -- 2016 (14th best fantasy WR) -- Oakland receivers had 13 red-zone TDs. Cooper had zero. He had only three of 10 last year. With red-zone specialist Michael Crabtree gone, expect Cooper to reach that next level, giving Carr the dominant #1 receiving option that's eluded him through four seasons.
Some would argue that Crabtree's departure propping up Cooper is subtraction by subtraction -- that the newly signed Jordy Nelson doesn't hold a candle to Crabtree, making the 2018 version a more lopsided passing attack . . . not a better one.
I obviously disagree, and that segues into my next prediction: Jordy will be a top-30 WR. A year ago that would have sounded ridiculous given Nelson's extraordinary past production. Not counting his injury-plagued 2012 campaign and lost 2015 season, he had four monster seasons from 2011 to 2016. After a miserable 2017 , he was unceremoniously jettisoned by the Packers. Yes, Green Bay saw the soon-to-be 33-year-old as a step slower and an unnecessary financial drain. But to be clear, in his four uninjured contests with Aaron Rodgers to start the year, Jordy had 78 fantasy points, putting him on pace for 312 -- more than any other wideout. Then Rodgers got hurt, and most of the offense wilted with Brett Hundley under center. (In fairness, Davante Adams barely missed a beat.)
Jordy's WR-41 ADP assumes numbers comparable to last year's, which is ridiculous. 96% of experts rank him as a WR4 or worse. Incredible. And 37 of these 77 experts -- 48% -- rank Jordy between 45th and 59th. Speechless.
As some of you know, I snagged Jordy in the 12th round of my July draft -- the 140th overall player and 50th WR taken. Even if he is a step slower, in a top-heavy aerial attack like Oakland's, he's a must-draft receiver in every league.
Carr started 2017 with five TDs and zero turnovers as Oakland cruised to 2-0. Then he broke three bones in his back, and his passing attack fell off the rails, as he averaged only 1.2 passing TDs per game, down from 1.8 heading into his fourth season. Also keep in mind his receivers dropped 28 passes last year -- fourth highest in the NFL. And he had less time to throw (2.49 seconds) per pass attempt than 37 other quarterbacks. The team was also third-to-last in turnover differential, intercepting a league-low five balls, leading to a near-league-low time of possession.
Because of these headwinds, all 97 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros place him outside the top 14, and 77% rank him 20th or worse. That is completely nuts. Still only 27 years old, a healthy Carr can easily return to his 2016 QB1 glory. I'm banking on a top-14 finish for the third time in four seasons.
As a relevant side note, some of my Carr support rests on the continued development of the underappreciated, still-only-24-years-old Amari Cooper. In Cooper's best season -- 2016 (14th best fantasy WR) -- Oakland receivers had 13 red-zone TDs. Cooper had zero. He had only three of 10 last year. With red-zone specialist Michael Crabtree gone, expect Cooper to reach that next level, giving Carr the dominant #1 receiving option that's eluded him through four seasons.
Some would argue that Crabtree's departure propping up Cooper is subtraction by subtraction -- that the newly signed Jordy Nelson doesn't hold a candle to Crabtree, making the 2018 version a more lopsided passing attack . . . not a better one.
I obviously disagree, and that segues into my next prediction: Jordy will be a top-30 WR. A year ago that would have sounded ridiculous given Nelson's extraordinary past production. Not counting his injury-plagued 2012 campaign and lost 2015 season, he had four monster seasons from 2011 to 2016. After a miserable 2017 , he was unceremoniously jettisoned by the Packers. Yes, Green Bay saw the soon-to-be 33-year-old as a step slower and an unnecessary financial drain. But to be clear, in his four uninjured contests with Aaron Rodgers to start the year, Jordy had 78 fantasy points, putting him on pace for 312 -- more than any other wideout. Then Rodgers got hurt, and most of the offense wilted with Brett Hundley under center. (In fairness, Davante Adams barely missed a beat.)
Jordy's WR-41 ADP assumes numbers comparable to last year's, which is ridiculous. 96% of experts rank him as a WR4 or worse. Incredible. And 37 of these 77 experts -- 48% -- rank Jordy between 45th and 59th. Speechless.
As some of you know, I snagged Jordy in the 12th round of my July draft -- the 140th overall player and 50th WR taken. Even if he is a step slower, in a top-heavy aerial attack like Oakland's, he's a must-draft receiver in every league.