Contrarian Predictions #'s 18/19: James Conner (RB-67 ADP) Will Be a Top 55 RB, and Jack Doyle (TE-11 ADP) Won't Be a Top 14 TE
As we get closer to Week 1, here are a couple more predictions that go against almost the entire fantasy universe. But first, a quick reminder about the 4th Annual FF4W Survivor Pool. 92 of you have signed up for this free season-long contest. Minimal time commitment. Maximum "feel-like-a-winner"-ment. Sign up at:
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League ID: 20432
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I've hyped up James Conner several times this summer, including yesterday. So no need to go into great detail on why he's very undervalued at his RB-67 ADP. The big takeaways are Conner's clear development since his third-round selection in last year's draft; Le'Veon Bell's higher-than-normal injury/suspension risk, and Pittsburgh's high-powered offense.
To put Conner's average draft position in perspective, here are some of the RBs going before him in most drafts: Frank Gore (RB-66), Rob Kelley (RB-60), Jordan Wilkins (RB-56), and Nyheim Hines (RB-55). I'd rather have Conner hands-down.
100 of 102 experts (98%) rank Conner outside the top 55. In fact, 89% place him 70th or worse. 57% place him 80th or worse. He'll be a top-55 RB even if Bell plays 15 games. And he'll be a weekly top-20 RB whenever Bell sits. That's a risk worth taking.
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Jack Doyle (TE-11 ADP) has been a low-end TE1 all season. 97 out of 104 experts (93%) rank him inside the top 14. In fact, 85% of experts place him in the top 12. But Doyle's arguably the riskiest TE1 in this year's draft.
People are surely eyeing his breakout 59/584/5 season in 2016, and how he topped it last year with an 80/690/4 line. But the addition of Eric Ebron and Ryan Grant will have an adverse impact on Doyle's production. Consider that last year he was far and away the #2 receiver in Indy -- playing alongside Chester Rogers, Kamar Aiken, and a continually injured Donte Moncrief.
While this year's Colts remain sub-par when you get beyond T.Y. Hilton, I believe Doyle's role will diminish, setting himself up for production outside the top 14.
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League ID: 20432
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officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota
--
I've hyped up James Conner several times this summer, including yesterday. So no need to go into great detail on why he's very undervalued at his RB-67 ADP. The big takeaways are Conner's clear development since his third-round selection in last year's draft; Le'Veon Bell's higher-than-normal injury/suspension risk, and Pittsburgh's high-powered offense.
To put Conner's average draft position in perspective, here are some of the RBs going before him in most drafts: Frank Gore (RB-66), Rob Kelley (RB-60), Jordan Wilkins (RB-56), and Nyheim Hines (RB-55). I'd rather have Conner hands-down.
100 of 102 experts (98%) rank Conner outside the top 55. In fact, 89% place him 70th or worse. 57% place him 80th or worse. He'll be a top-55 RB even if Bell plays 15 games. And he'll be a weekly top-20 RB whenever Bell sits. That's a risk worth taking.
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Jack Doyle (TE-11 ADP) has been a low-end TE1 all season. 97 out of 104 experts (93%) rank him inside the top 14. In fact, 85% of experts place him in the top 12. But Doyle's arguably the riskiest TE1 in this year's draft.
People are surely eyeing his breakout 59/584/5 season in 2016, and how he topped it last year with an 80/690/4 line. But the addition of Eric Ebron and Ryan Grant will have an adverse impact on Doyle's production. Consider that last year he was far and away the #2 receiver in Indy -- playing alongside Chester Rogers, Kamar Aiken, and a continually injured Donte Moncrief.
While this year's Colts remain sub-par when you get beyond T.Y. Hilton, I believe Doyle's role will diminish, setting himself up for production outside the top 14.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota