Contrarian Predictions #'s 16 and 17: Josh Gordon (WR-23 ADP) Won't Be a Top 30 WR, and LeSean McCoy (RB-16 ADP) Won't Be a Top 24 RB
I've been waiting for Josh Gordon's average draft position to plummet. Even Saturday's news that he was returning to practice was offset by the not-as-publicized news that the NFL still hadn't cleared his return. Five days later, he's still not back, while head coach Hue Jackson recently acknowledged there's only "a chance" Gordon plays Week 1.
Yet most of the fantasy universe is unfazed. His WR ADP is 23 -- only marginally down from his gaudy WR-15 ADP seven weeks ago. For all intents and purposes, people continue to view him as an unquestioned weekly fantasy starter. He is not.
I've warned about him a few times this summer, so no need to dive deep here. But my basic concerns have been (a) he's never played alongside a receiver as talented as Jarvis Landry, (b) he’s looked good -- but not great -- in limited action since 2014, and (c) he’s a constant off-field-disruption risk. This is a guy who’s been suspended three times by the NFL -- once for over two seasons -- and hasn’t played more than five games in a season since 2013.
I genuinely hope I'm wrong -- that Gordon's recent wellness hiatus was a sign that he's conquering his addiction. But it really comes down to this: What's more likely to happen? The 27-year-old puts the past four "lost" campaigns behind him and returns to greatness for 16 games? Or his limited 2014 and 2017 campaigns, during which his weekly numbers resembled Mohammed Sanu's from last year, more closely reflect where he is as a player? Or worse, he misses significant time?
Predictions are always about probabilities. Despite 90% of experts believing the contrary, Gordon won't finish 2017 as a top-30 WR.
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Facing domestic violence allegations, and coming off another year of fairly heavy usage, perennial RB1 LeSean McCoy (RB-16 ADP) is a riskier pick than at any time since his 2009 rookie campaign. This is the time in most RB careers when we see them break down. It doesn't mean McCoy can't be great again. But it does mean he's unlikely to.
At 29 years old, he had 346 touches last year. Among the 12 29-year-olds who've earned more touches in a season in NFL history, nine (67%) experienced a significant production dip the following season. Factor in Buffalo's weakened offensive line and an arguable short-term downgrade at QB (at least until Josh Allen gets fully acclimated), and you're looking at an uphill climb for the future Hall-of-Famer.
And here's an interesting stat I researched this morning: Last year McCoy had the eighth most carries (12) inside the opponent's five-yard line. Yet he was merely 45th among all RBs inside the 5. That's not the McCoy we're used to seeing. In fact, he was 21st in fantasy points when running with the ball inside the 20. The year before he was #3.
And then there are the legal issues hanging over him -- a personal injury lawsuit that's being investigated. While it could be nothing, the issue threatens to mar what could be McCoy's final season as an unquestioned NFL starter.
94% of experts rank him as a top-24 RB. 88% place him in the top 20. A lot of things have to break right for McCoy to be an RB2 this season. He won't finish in the top 24.
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Yet most of the fantasy universe is unfazed. His WR ADP is 23 -- only marginally down from his gaudy WR-15 ADP seven weeks ago. For all intents and purposes, people continue to view him as an unquestioned weekly fantasy starter. He is not.
I've warned about him a few times this summer, so no need to dive deep here. But my basic concerns have been (a) he's never played alongside a receiver as talented as Jarvis Landry, (b) he’s looked good -- but not great -- in limited action since 2014, and (c) he’s a constant off-field-disruption risk. This is a guy who’s been suspended three times by the NFL -- once for over two seasons -- and hasn’t played more than five games in a season since 2013.
I genuinely hope I'm wrong -- that Gordon's recent wellness hiatus was a sign that he's conquering his addiction. But it really comes down to this: What's more likely to happen? The 27-year-old puts the past four "lost" campaigns behind him and returns to greatness for 16 games? Or his limited 2014 and 2017 campaigns, during which his weekly numbers resembled Mohammed Sanu's from last year, more closely reflect where he is as a player? Or worse, he misses significant time?
Predictions are always about probabilities. Despite 90% of experts believing the contrary, Gordon won't finish 2017 as a top-30 WR.
--
Facing domestic violence allegations, and coming off another year of fairly heavy usage, perennial RB1 LeSean McCoy (RB-16 ADP) is a riskier pick than at any time since his 2009 rookie campaign. This is the time in most RB careers when we see them break down. It doesn't mean McCoy can't be great again. But it does mean he's unlikely to.
At 29 years old, he had 346 touches last year. Among the 12 29-year-olds who've earned more touches in a season in NFL history, nine (67%) experienced a significant production dip the following season. Factor in Buffalo's weakened offensive line and an arguable short-term downgrade at QB (at least until Josh Allen gets fully acclimated), and you're looking at an uphill climb for the future Hall-of-Famer.
And here's an interesting stat I researched this morning: Last year McCoy had the eighth most carries (12) inside the opponent's five-yard line. Yet he was merely 45th among all RBs inside the 5. That's not the McCoy we're used to seeing. In fact, he was 21st in fantasy points when running with the ball inside the 20. The year before he was #3.
And then there are the legal issues hanging over him -- a personal injury lawsuit that's being investigated. While it could be nothing, the issue threatens to mar what could be McCoy's final season as an unquestioned NFL starter.
94% of experts rank him as a top-24 RB. 88% place him in the top 20. A lot of things have to break right for McCoy to be an RB2 this season. He won't finish in the top 24.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota