Contrarian Predictions #'s 14 and 15: Odell Beckham, Jr. (WR-3 ADP) Won't Be a Top 10 WR and Sterling Shepard (WR-45 ADP) Will Be a Top 35 WR
Put aside Odell Beckham Jr.'s contract negotiations. Yes, they seem to be a distraction. And yes, they might not end well. But money isn't a major or even a minor reason why I believe OBJ is universally overvalued.
First, the team he's been dominating with looks considerably different today than it did when he was last dominating in 2016. That year he was competing for targets with very pre-prime rookie Sterling Shepard, the very post-prime Victor Cruz, TE Will Tye, and a backfield that was 29th in rushing yards, 30th in YPC, and last in rushing TDs. Beckham scored 74 more fantasy points than his aging quarterback, which let's just say is a highly unusual production gap reserved for teams where the offense runs largely through one receiver.
After an injury-marred 2017, OBJ returns this year to a team comprised of an undervalued Sterling Shepard, a very capable Evan Engram, and of course, a nearly 180-degree turnaround in the backfield with all-world prospect Saquon Barkley soaking up touches -- and cutting into OBJ's customary 50-60 fantasy points per season in the red zone. This is no longer a one-man show with secondary and tertiary targets going to, as in 2015, Rueben Randle and Shane Vereen. For the first time in Beckham's career, this is a truly balanced offense that, sure, will still feature their all-world wideout prominently, but not to the same degree.
We also have to factor in Eli Manning's age (37) and seemingly declining talent. Looking at his deep balls (those traveling beyond 20 yards), in 2015 the future Hall-of-Famer converted 17 of 52 passes (33%) for 675 yards, eight TDs, and zero interceptions. His numbers weakened in 2016 from that distance, going 17-for-66 (26%) for 576 yards, five TDs, and six interceptions.
And last year simply wasn't pretty: 9-for-49 (18%) for 303 yards, two TDs, and five interceptions.
One could argue that the Giants' rash of Week 5 injuries (losing three of their top four wideouts) went on to skew Eli's numbers. But I think it's safe to say he'll need to dramatically improve his game to capitalize even semi-consistently on OBJ's deep-ball play-making.
Beckham has owned a WR-3 ADP all summer, and on average he's coming off the board in the late first round. 84 of 85 experts rank him in the top 6, with only Razzball's Rudy Gamble pushing him as low as 7th. 60 of 85 -- that's right, 71% of experts -- rank him in the top 3. The Giants' #1 receiver is, for all intents and purposes, according to essentially the entire fantasy universe, one of the safest draft picks you can make.
They're all wrong. Beckham won't be a top-10 WR.
--
Now on to Shepard, whose WR-45 ADP not-so-coincidentally lines up beautifully with last year's production, which placed him 42nd among all fantasy WRs. Simply bizarre, but not all that surprising, because this is often how rankings are formulated.
Those undervaluing Shepard might believe his "inflated" 2017 numbers were due, in part, to OBJ's absence for much of the season. Yet in the three full games they played together, Shepard averaged 13.9 fantasy points, which extended over a full season would come to 222.4 points. For context, high-end WR2 Davante Adams had 222.5.
The mistake so many people are making is assuming Beckham will cut into Shepard's numbers. The opposite is true: an ascending Shepard will cut into Beckham's. No, that doesn't mean Shepard will be Eli's #1 receiver. It does, however, mean that Shepard -- who missed the better part of five contests in 2017 -- will be no worse than a low-end WR3. In other words, you're looking at a 60/675/4 line at worst. Despite 89% of experts disagreeing, the Giants' talented third-year receiver will be a top-35 WR.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota
First, the team he's been dominating with looks considerably different today than it did when he was last dominating in 2016. That year he was competing for targets with very pre-prime rookie Sterling Shepard, the very post-prime Victor Cruz, TE Will Tye, and a backfield that was 29th in rushing yards, 30th in YPC, and last in rushing TDs. Beckham scored 74 more fantasy points than his aging quarterback, which let's just say is a highly unusual production gap reserved for teams where the offense runs largely through one receiver.
After an injury-marred 2017, OBJ returns this year to a team comprised of an undervalued Sterling Shepard, a very capable Evan Engram, and of course, a nearly 180-degree turnaround in the backfield with all-world prospect Saquon Barkley soaking up touches -- and cutting into OBJ's customary 50-60 fantasy points per season in the red zone. This is no longer a one-man show with secondary and tertiary targets going to, as in 2015, Rueben Randle and Shane Vereen. For the first time in Beckham's career, this is a truly balanced offense that, sure, will still feature their all-world wideout prominently, but not to the same degree.
We also have to factor in Eli Manning's age (37) and seemingly declining talent. Looking at his deep balls (those traveling beyond 20 yards), in 2015 the future Hall-of-Famer converted 17 of 52 passes (33%) for 675 yards, eight TDs, and zero interceptions. His numbers weakened in 2016 from that distance, going 17-for-66 (26%) for 576 yards, five TDs, and six interceptions.
And last year simply wasn't pretty: 9-for-49 (18%) for 303 yards, two TDs, and five interceptions.
One could argue that the Giants' rash of Week 5 injuries (losing three of their top four wideouts) went on to skew Eli's numbers. But I think it's safe to say he'll need to dramatically improve his game to capitalize even semi-consistently on OBJ's deep-ball play-making.
Beckham has owned a WR-3 ADP all summer, and on average he's coming off the board in the late first round. 84 of 85 experts rank him in the top 6, with only Razzball's Rudy Gamble pushing him as low as 7th. 60 of 85 -- that's right, 71% of experts -- rank him in the top 3. The Giants' #1 receiver is, for all intents and purposes, according to essentially the entire fantasy universe, one of the safest draft picks you can make.
They're all wrong. Beckham won't be a top-10 WR.
--
Now on to Shepard, whose WR-45 ADP not-so-coincidentally lines up beautifully with last year's production, which placed him 42nd among all fantasy WRs. Simply bizarre, but not all that surprising, because this is often how rankings are formulated.
Those undervaluing Shepard might believe his "inflated" 2017 numbers were due, in part, to OBJ's absence for much of the season. Yet in the three full games they played together, Shepard averaged 13.9 fantasy points, which extended over a full season would come to 222.4 points. For context, high-end WR2 Davante Adams had 222.5.
The mistake so many people are making is assuming Beckham will cut into Shepard's numbers. The opposite is true: an ascending Shepard will cut into Beckham's. No, that doesn't mean Shepard will be Eli's #1 receiver. It does, however, mean that Shepard -- who missed the better part of five contests in 2017 -- will be no worse than a low-end WR3. In other words, you're looking at a 60/675/4 line at worst. Despite 89% of experts disagreeing, the Giants' talented third-year receiver will be a top-35 WR.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota