In 2017, Robert Woods enjoyed the best season of his career, finishing 30th among all fantasy WRs. This preseason his average draft position (unsurprisingly) has oscillated between 32 and 33 among WRs, probably because (again unsurprisingly) he's largely remained the consensus 33rd-ranked WR among experts. Coincidence? Of course not. This has how it normally works, with ADP closely aligning with what experts say, which is based largely on the previous year's production, which is based on any number of factors -- not all of which are likely to repeat. It's a cycle of laziness. It's a disservice to fantasy managers. We all deserve better.
Woods enters 2018 as a strong regression candidate. For starters, he's a higher-than-average injury risk, having produced only one 16-game campaign in five NFL seasons, including missing nine contests in his last three seasons. A glass-half-full perspective would suggest big-leap potential: "If he can be relevant playing only 12 games, surely he can be weekly starter with 16 games." I'd take it a different direction: In a crowded receiver corps, any missed time for Woods opens the door for Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, and potentially Josh Reynolds to seize a greater share of the offense. It would be entirely reasonable to see a Week 9 statement by a member of the coaching staff saying that the injured Woods "will be brought along slowly" during his recovery. As valuable as he is to this offense, the Rams arguably can win as many games with him as they can without him. He's never earned 5+ catches per game in a season, and even when he led Bills receivers in 2016, he averaged just under four receptions. Better to keep him fresh for the playoffs, which is not want fantasy managers want out of a regular or even semi-regular fantasy starter.
The second big issue is strength of schedule. 2017 breakout QB Jared Goff is more likely than not to take a step back in 2018. He was merely an adequate passer when it came to accuracy, while his teammates dropped only 13 targets -- second-lowest in the league. In other words, there’s room for regression, particularly with Rams facing a considerably tougher schedule this year. Last season they played four 10-win teams, against which Goff averaged 13.5 fantasy points. His average against the others -- including five of the league’s eight worst defenses -- was 18.3. Woods played in only two of those four 10-win-opponent contests, averaging 13.1 points vs. 14.2 against his other 10 opponents. But against those five bottom-8 defenses, Woods averaged 19 points vs. 9.8 against his other seven opponents. That shockingly wide gap is no fluke, and it can't be ignored. Just consider that four of his five scores came against the lowly Texans and Giants. As the #3 or #4 weekly option, he was frequently stymied by great or even half-decent defenses.
The third big issue is the arrival of Brandin Cooks, who's a marked upgrade over the departed Sammy Watkins. Cooks hasn't missed a game since 2014 and has three straight 1,000/7 campaigns. His presence should make Woods no better than the #4 offensive option behind Gurley, Cooks, and Kupp.
84% of experts rank Woods inside the top 40. Like his ambitious ADP, this is narrow thinking. Woods won't be a top-40 performer.
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I get a lot of questions about where to sign up for the Preseason Top 300 Rankings. Now that we're getting fairly close to the start of the regular season, I'll start ending each column with a couple quick links: one to the rankings subscription form, and one to the 4th Annual Survivor Pool.
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SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
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League ID: 20432
Password: mariota
Woods enters 2018 as a strong regression candidate. For starters, he's a higher-than-average injury risk, having produced only one 16-game campaign in five NFL seasons, including missing nine contests in his last three seasons. A glass-half-full perspective would suggest big-leap potential: "If he can be relevant playing only 12 games, surely he can be weekly starter with 16 games." I'd take it a different direction: In a crowded receiver corps, any missed time for Woods opens the door for Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, and potentially Josh Reynolds to seize a greater share of the offense. It would be entirely reasonable to see a Week 9 statement by a member of the coaching staff saying that the injured Woods "will be brought along slowly" during his recovery. As valuable as he is to this offense, the Rams arguably can win as many games with him as they can without him. He's never earned 5+ catches per game in a season, and even when he led Bills receivers in 2016, he averaged just under four receptions. Better to keep him fresh for the playoffs, which is not want fantasy managers want out of a regular or even semi-regular fantasy starter.
The second big issue is strength of schedule. 2017 breakout QB Jared Goff is more likely than not to take a step back in 2018. He was merely an adequate passer when it came to accuracy, while his teammates dropped only 13 targets -- second-lowest in the league. In other words, there’s room for regression, particularly with Rams facing a considerably tougher schedule this year. Last season they played four 10-win teams, against which Goff averaged 13.5 fantasy points. His average against the others -- including five of the league’s eight worst defenses -- was 18.3. Woods played in only two of those four 10-win-opponent contests, averaging 13.1 points vs. 14.2 against his other 10 opponents. But against those five bottom-8 defenses, Woods averaged 19 points vs. 9.8 against his other seven opponents. That shockingly wide gap is no fluke, and it can't be ignored. Just consider that four of his five scores came against the lowly Texans and Giants. As the #3 or #4 weekly option, he was frequently stymied by great or even half-decent defenses.
The third big issue is the arrival of Brandin Cooks, who's a marked upgrade over the departed Sammy Watkins. Cooks hasn't missed a game since 2014 and has three straight 1,000/7 campaigns. His presence should make Woods no better than the #4 offensive option behind Gurley, Cooks, and Kupp.
84% of experts rank Woods inside the top 40. Like his ambitious ADP, this is narrow thinking. Woods won't be a top-40 performer.
--
I get a lot of questions about where to sign up for the Preseason Top 300 Rankings. Now that we're getting fairly close to the start of the regular season, I'll start ending each column with a couple quick links: one to the rankings subscription form, and one to the 4th Annual Survivor Pool.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota