All summer I've been wary of Christian McCaffrey matching or even building on last season's success. With the hype surrounding him now bordering on excessive, I want to go on record: despite an RB-11 ADP, and despite zero out of 78 experts ranking him outside the top 16, McCaffrey won't be a top 16 RB this season.
On its face, my claim seems counterintuitive, which helps explain why every expert is playing this safe (or so they think). McCaffrey was a proven workhorse in college (672 touches in his final two seasons). A couple weeks ago his head coach has claimed it would be "ideal" for him to earn 400+ touches this year, and his offensive coordinator reiterated that commitment a week later.
When you consider that McCaffrey was the 10th highest scoring fantasy RB last season despite touching the ball only 197 times, what's not to love? Seriously, why would anyone claim a regression given his talent and expected dramatically rising usage?
For starters, because it doesn't add up. Last year the Panthers ran the ball 490 times and caught 293 passes. That's 783 touches. That means the coaching staff believes more than half of Carolina's offense will run through McCaffrey. Completely ridiculous. Even if their offense is at hyper-2015 levels (their 17-2 season), you're still looking at an unrealistic 50% touch rate.
To put this in greater perspective, #1 RB Todd Gurley earned 44% of the the Rams' touches last year. Prior #1 RB David Johnson topped out at 49% two years ago. Prior #1 Devonta Freeman hit 41% in 2015. And so on. Dominant usage is reserved for the best of the best. On a team with a highly versatile QB (Cam Newton, 118 carries per season), a bellcow-caliber #2 RB (C.J. Anderson), and 2-3 capable receivers (Devin Funchess, Greg Olsen, and perhaps rookie D.J. Moore), McCaffrey is looking at a 33% share of the offense at best. That cap would equate to 260 touches, which would be a slight uptick over last season.
"Well then, that means he'll be better than last season."
Not exactly. We're talking about a 260-touch cap. There's no guarantee he plays a larger role. First, he has to improve his ground game, particularly with Anderson on board -- a tangible upgrade over last year's backup, Jonathan Stewart. McCaffrey averaged 3.7 yards per carry last season. That was lower than any other top-18 RB fantasy scorers, and fourth-worst among all top-30 backs. With Anderson clocking in at 4.4 YPC for his career and Cam averaging 5.2 YPC, McCaffrey must improve on the ground to crack 225 touches.
Also, too many people are looking at his 2017 numbers in a vacuum. The Anderson upgrade aside, a healthy Greg Olsen will cut into McCaffrey's usage. Carolina's veteran near-elite tight end missed nearly all of last season. When he was sidelined, McCaffrey averaged 16 fantasy points per game vs. 12 with Olsen on the field. Those aren't fluky stats. Olsen was a top 2-7 fantasy TE in each of the previous five seasons. His replacement last year, Ed Dickson, posted mid-range TE2 numbers as a starter. If Olsen had played all 16 games last season, and if McCaffrey had averaged 12 points instead of 16, he would have been the 16th-highest-scoring RB, not the 10th.
Another factor to consider: Carolina's wideout situation was in disarray for much of last season. Kelvin Benjamin was gone in October. In fact, when Benjamin and Olsen were out of the lineup, McCaffrey averaged 19 fantasy points per game vs. 13 when at least one was active. So consider this: for much of the season, Cam's only two dependable options were McCaffrey and Devin Funchess. The second-highest receiving yardage total among all active Carolina wideouts by season’s end was 202 (Russell Shepard). Brenton Bersin was third with 128 yards.
This year Cam will start with double the dependable options -- and more if the rookie Moore develops, and more still if Torrey Smith or Curtis Samuel capably mans the slot. McCaffrey will be an important component, no doubt. But let's not judge last season as his baseline. Instead, let's view it for what it is: a talented young back carving out a meaningful role in a decimated offense. Although his talent remains, he'll be competing for touches with more talented players. That'll keep him outside the top 16.
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On a separate note, a few of you have (kindly) lamented that you don't always see FF4W updates in your Facebook feed. And since you have about 500 more pressing things on your mind, a month could go by before realizing you're a month behind on content.
The easiest way to track these is to click the upside-down triangle in the upper-right of your Facebook page and click "News Feed Preferences" in the drop-down. Then in the Preferences window that pops up, click "Prioritize who to see first," then the FF4W icon, then the "Done" button.
Then each daily fantasy column will start appearing at/near the top of your daily news feed, right above your co-worker's painfully long anecdote about getting a flat tire, or that sunset photo your high school acquaintance (can't really call him a friend) took last year and desperately hopes goes viral.
On its face, my claim seems counterintuitive, which helps explain why every expert is playing this safe (or so they think). McCaffrey was a proven workhorse in college (672 touches in his final two seasons). A couple weeks ago his head coach has claimed it would be "ideal" for him to earn 400+ touches this year, and his offensive coordinator reiterated that commitment a week later.
When you consider that McCaffrey was the 10th highest scoring fantasy RB last season despite touching the ball only 197 times, what's not to love? Seriously, why would anyone claim a regression given his talent and expected dramatically rising usage?
For starters, because it doesn't add up. Last year the Panthers ran the ball 490 times and caught 293 passes. That's 783 touches. That means the coaching staff believes more than half of Carolina's offense will run through McCaffrey. Completely ridiculous. Even if their offense is at hyper-2015 levels (their 17-2 season), you're still looking at an unrealistic 50% touch rate.
To put this in greater perspective, #1 RB Todd Gurley earned 44% of the the Rams' touches last year. Prior #1 RB David Johnson topped out at 49% two years ago. Prior #1 Devonta Freeman hit 41% in 2015. And so on. Dominant usage is reserved for the best of the best. On a team with a highly versatile QB (Cam Newton, 118 carries per season), a bellcow-caliber #2 RB (C.J. Anderson), and 2-3 capable receivers (Devin Funchess, Greg Olsen, and perhaps rookie D.J. Moore), McCaffrey is looking at a 33% share of the offense at best. That cap would equate to 260 touches, which would be a slight uptick over last season.
"Well then, that means he'll be better than last season."
Not exactly. We're talking about a 260-touch cap. There's no guarantee he plays a larger role. First, he has to improve his ground game, particularly with Anderson on board -- a tangible upgrade over last year's backup, Jonathan Stewart. McCaffrey averaged 3.7 yards per carry last season. That was lower than any other top-18 RB fantasy scorers, and fourth-worst among all top-30 backs. With Anderson clocking in at 4.4 YPC for his career and Cam averaging 5.2 YPC, McCaffrey must improve on the ground to crack 225 touches.
Also, too many people are looking at his 2017 numbers in a vacuum. The Anderson upgrade aside, a healthy Greg Olsen will cut into McCaffrey's usage. Carolina's veteran near-elite tight end missed nearly all of last season. When he was sidelined, McCaffrey averaged 16 fantasy points per game vs. 12 with Olsen on the field. Those aren't fluky stats. Olsen was a top 2-7 fantasy TE in each of the previous five seasons. His replacement last year, Ed Dickson, posted mid-range TE2 numbers as a starter. If Olsen had played all 16 games last season, and if McCaffrey had averaged 12 points instead of 16, he would have been the 16th-highest-scoring RB, not the 10th.
Another factor to consider: Carolina's wideout situation was in disarray for much of last season. Kelvin Benjamin was gone in October. In fact, when Benjamin and Olsen were out of the lineup, McCaffrey averaged 19 fantasy points per game vs. 13 when at least one was active. So consider this: for much of the season, Cam's only two dependable options were McCaffrey and Devin Funchess. The second-highest receiving yardage total among all active Carolina wideouts by season’s end was 202 (Russell Shepard). Brenton Bersin was third with 128 yards.
This year Cam will start with double the dependable options -- and more if the rookie Moore develops, and more still if Torrey Smith or Curtis Samuel capably mans the slot. McCaffrey will be an important component, no doubt. But let's not judge last season as his baseline. Instead, let's view it for what it is: a talented young back carving out a meaningful role in a decimated offense. Although his talent remains, he'll be competing for touches with more talented players. That'll keep him outside the top 16.
--
On a separate note, a few of you have (kindly) lamented that you don't always see FF4W updates in your Facebook feed. And since you have about 500 more pressing things on your mind, a month could go by before realizing you're a month behind on content.
The easiest way to track these is to click the upside-down triangle in the upper-right of your Facebook page and click "News Feed Preferences" in the drop-down. Then in the Preferences window that pops up, click "Prioritize who to see first," then the FF4W icon, then the "Done" button.
Then each daily fantasy column will start appearing at/near the top of your daily news feed, right above your co-worker's painfully long anecdote about getting a flat tire, or that sunset photo your high school acquaintance (can't really call him a friend) took last year and desperately hopes goes viral.