Five years ago, some of the first columns I wrote on FF4W were about players who were severely underrated or overrated heading into the 2013 season. I ended up hitting on 70%, including Antonio Brown, whose WR-23 ADP was ridiculously shortsighted. Drafting this elite talent in the fifth or sixth round (which is where I and most people got him that year) proved to be a difference-maker:
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2013/08/bold-prediction-antonio-brown.html.
Over the years, these contrarian predictions have become an FF4W blog staple: almost universally unpopular opinions about future player performance. The metrics are clear, and the consequences are unquestionable. If Player A defies most expectations except my own, I get credit for offering unique value. And if Player B matches most expectations except my own, I (deservedly) take the blame for an awful prediction. There's nothing to weasel out of when I'm wrong. All content is public and searchable. Some of you are great (or what's another, less great word for "great"?) about needling me when I miss big.
And this is what it's all about: laying it on the line and accepting the results.
Last summer I made 17 contrarian prediction, missing big on six (35%). In other words, on a little over one-third of my against-the-grain picks, you would have been better off listening to the masses than to me. With two (12%) other predictions, both undervalued guys fared better than their average draft positions and better than most experts predicted. So those who listened to me were better off than if they'd listened to the masses, but they didn't reach the loftier levels I'd envisioned.
My remaining nine calls -- 53% -- proved to be accurate, completely defying ADPs and 95%-98% of experts. That means if you went against the grain on all 17 predictions, you earned value on 65% of them, with a majority of the picks falling into the "difference-maker" category: a near-universal WR7 posting WR4 numbers, a near-universal RB6/7 posting WR3 numbers, a bottom-10 kicker finishing 9th, and so on.
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/bold-predictions.html
With all that in mind, today I'm kicking off this summer's contrarian predictions with -- like Antonio Brown five years ago -- a 23 ADP receiver who's not getting enough love. In the past three years Jarvis Landry has been the ninth, 13th, and fifth highest scoring WR. And that’s without a QB1 talent throwing to him (primarily Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler, and Matt Moore). Whether or not Josh Gordon struggles (on the field or off), Landry should be a low-end WR1 at worst. Yet his ADP has barely flinched since June -- formerly ranked 22nd, and now 23rd. What gives?
I think too many fantasy drafters and experts believe Baker Mayfield will take over sooner than later, which will dampen Landry's fantasy prospects. They also underestimate Tyrod Taylor, who owns a ridiculous QB-29 ADP. Almost half of the 73 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros list him outside the top 20, while 95% believe Landry's due for his worst fantasy season since his 2014 rookie campaign. It's all bunk.
Landry has thrived statistically despite scoring only 17 times in the past three years. He's one of the league's best possession receivers and will continue to be the Browns' #1 pass-catcher. The question is not whether Landry will regress; it's whether he'll take another step forward into elite territory. I'm not willing to go that far yet. But I am confident that if you draft Landry at his current QB-23 ADP, you'll get a steal.
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2013/08/bold-prediction-antonio-brown.html.
Over the years, these contrarian predictions have become an FF4W blog staple: almost universally unpopular opinions about future player performance. The metrics are clear, and the consequences are unquestionable. If Player A defies most expectations except my own, I get credit for offering unique value. And if Player B matches most expectations except my own, I (deservedly) take the blame for an awful prediction. There's nothing to weasel out of when I'm wrong. All content is public and searchable. Some of you are great (or what's another, less great word for "great"?) about needling me when I miss big.
And this is what it's all about: laying it on the line and accepting the results.
Last summer I made 17 contrarian prediction, missing big on six (35%). In other words, on a little over one-third of my against-the-grain picks, you would have been better off listening to the masses than to me. With two (12%) other predictions, both undervalued guys fared better than their average draft positions and better than most experts predicted. So those who listened to me were better off than if they'd listened to the masses, but they didn't reach the loftier levels I'd envisioned.
My remaining nine calls -- 53% -- proved to be accurate, completely defying ADPs and 95%-98% of experts. That means if you went against the grain on all 17 predictions, you earned value on 65% of them, with a majority of the picks falling into the "difference-maker" category: a near-universal WR7 posting WR4 numbers, a near-universal RB6/7 posting WR3 numbers, a bottom-10 kicker finishing 9th, and so on.
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/bold-predictions.html
With all that in mind, today I'm kicking off this summer's contrarian predictions with -- like Antonio Brown five years ago -- a 23 ADP receiver who's not getting enough love. In the past three years Jarvis Landry has been the ninth, 13th, and fifth highest scoring WR. And that’s without a QB1 talent throwing to him (primarily Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler, and Matt Moore). Whether or not Josh Gordon struggles (on the field or off), Landry should be a low-end WR1 at worst. Yet his ADP has barely flinched since June -- formerly ranked 22nd, and now 23rd. What gives?
I think too many fantasy drafters and experts believe Baker Mayfield will take over sooner than later, which will dampen Landry's fantasy prospects. They also underestimate Tyrod Taylor, who owns a ridiculous QB-29 ADP. Almost half of the 73 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros list him outside the top 20, while 95% believe Landry's due for his worst fantasy season since his 2014 rookie campaign. It's all bunk.
Landry has thrived statistically despite scoring only 17 times in the past three years. He's one of the league's best possession receivers and will continue to be the Browns' #1 pass-catcher. The question is not whether Landry will regress; it's whether he'll take another step forward into elite territory. I'm not willing to go that far yet. But I am confident that if you draft Landry at his current QB-23 ADP, you'll get a steal.