Adrian Peterson, Undervalued RB Handcuffs, and Contrarian Prediction #13: Javorius Allen (RB-60 ADP) Won't Be a Top 50 RB
Adrian Peterson is back, beating out Jamaal Charles and Orleans Darkwa for a spot in the Redskins' backfield. Word has it Charles and Darkwa will battle it out next on Dancing With the Stars.
Really, this is likely to be the biggest AP news of the year -- outside the day when he's injured for the season, or the day he's cut. Now well into his 34th year on Earth, Peterson hasn't looked like his Hall-of-Fame self since 2015. Let's also keep in mind that Samaje Perine is expected to be fine for Week 1, Chris Thompson will play a significant role, and Rob Kelley still has a great shot at being a semi-regular producer. This season AP is no lock to start a game, finish a game, or do anything in between. He's a coin flip in the late rounds of your draft. I'd rather grab a higher-upside handcuff.
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Speaking of handcuffs, James Conner (RB-69 ADP) looked terrific in Pittsburgh's second preseason game. Le'Veon Bell's massive 2017 workload (406 touches) and suspension/injury history make him a higher-than-normal risk. Conner is in line to inherit at least half (and likely more) of Pittsburgh's carries if Bell goes down. Do not sleep on Conner in deep leagues, and if you drafted Bell, I'd rather have Conner than a backup top 12-16 QB.
John Kelly (RB-72 ADP) is another guy expected to back up an elite RB (Todd Gurley). Kelly got plenty of run this past weekend, and while he didn't look spectacular (18 carries for 56 yards), he found the end zone and solidified his standing as a likely bellcow if Gurley goes down.
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If I told you Javorius Allen's RB ADP is 40, would you think he's overrated or underrated? This is a guy who finished 23rd among all fantasy RBs last year, though most of his damage and usage came in the first nine weeks. He's also got the upper hand in his battle against Kenneth Dixon for handcuff / complementary-back duties behind Alex Collins. Oh, and he plays in pretty a run-friendly offense.
So what do you think? Should he be drafted among the first 40 RBs?
Now what if I told you his positional ADP is actually 60, and 88 of 91 experts place him outside the top 40? Oh, and more than half of these experts rank him 60th or worse?
Yeah, pretty nuts. At some point early this preseason, an expert decided Allen is an RB6/7. Fantasy managers closely watching expert rankings then started drafting him as an RB6/7. And the cycle continued all summer, so that a little over two weeks before Week 1, most of the fantasy universe still views Allen as undraftable with a 210 overall ADP? I'm not saying people don't think for themselves. I am saying it's human nature to be easily swayed by the masses. And the more momentum builds around a flawed interpretation of facts, the more people accept the flawed interpretation *as* fact.
In many of your draft rooms, Allen is showing up somewhere near Dixon and Kalen Ballage. It's a complete oversight by most of the fantasy universe. If you're looking for an RB4+ with RB2 potential if the #1 goes down, take a flyer on Allen. Despite nearly everyone ignoring him, Allen will finish the year in the top 40.
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Really, this is likely to be the biggest AP news of the year -- outside the day when he's injured for the season, or the day he's cut. Now well into his 34th year on Earth, Peterson hasn't looked like his Hall-of-Fame self since 2015. Let's also keep in mind that Samaje Perine is expected to be fine for Week 1, Chris Thompson will play a significant role, and Rob Kelley still has a great shot at being a semi-regular producer. This season AP is no lock to start a game, finish a game, or do anything in between. He's a coin flip in the late rounds of your draft. I'd rather grab a higher-upside handcuff.
--
Speaking of handcuffs, James Conner (RB-69 ADP) looked terrific in Pittsburgh's second preseason game. Le'Veon Bell's massive 2017 workload (406 touches) and suspension/injury history make him a higher-than-normal risk. Conner is in line to inherit at least half (and likely more) of Pittsburgh's carries if Bell goes down. Do not sleep on Conner in deep leagues, and if you drafted Bell, I'd rather have Conner than a backup top 12-16 QB.
John Kelly (RB-72 ADP) is another guy expected to back up an elite RB (Todd Gurley). Kelly got plenty of run this past weekend, and while he didn't look spectacular (18 carries for 56 yards), he found the end zone and solidified his standing as a likely bellcow if Gurley goes down.
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If I told you Javorius Allen's RB ADP is 40, would you think he's overrated or underrated? This is a guy who finished 23rd among all fantasy RBs last year, though most of his damage and usage came in the first nine weeks. He's also got the upper hand in his battle against Kenneth Dixon for handcuff / complementary-back duties behind Alex Collins. Oh, and he plays in pretty a run-friendly offense.
So what do you think? Should he be drafted among the first 40 RBs?
Now what if I told you his positional ADP is actually 60, and 88 of 91 experts place him outside the top 40? Oh, and more than half of these experts rank him 60th or worse?
Yeah, pretty nuts. At some point early this preseason, an expert decided Allen is an RB6/7. Fantasy managers closely watching expert rankings then started drafting him as an RB6/7. And the cycle continued all summer, so that a little over two weeks before Week 1, most of the fantasy universe still views Allen as undraftable with a 210 overall ADP? I'm not saying people don't think for themselves. I am saying it's human nature to be easily swayed by the masses. And the more momentum builds around a flawed interpretation of facts, the more people accept the flawed interpretation *as* fact.
In many of your draft rooms, Allen is showing up somewhere near Dixon and Kalen Ballage. It's a complete oversight by most of the fantasy universe. If you're looking for an RB4+ with RB2 potential if the #1 goes down, take a flyer on Allen. Despite nearly everyone ignoring him, Allen will finish the year in the top 40.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota