In the past couple weeks we've seen interesting ADP movement for 100+ players, guided mostly by the impact of injuries and depth chart battles. Here's a look at some of the most notable movers.
While QB hasn't seen any recent dramatic movement among draftable players, Jameis Winston made the "biggest" jump among all QB1s and QB2s, shifting from a 23-QB ADP to 21. Meanwhile, three pairs of players swapped positions: Drew Brees passed Carson Wentz to reach the #6 spot, Kirk Cousins replaced Andrew Luck at the #8 spot, and Tom Brady is now at #3 after moving past Russell Wilson.
Speaking of Brees, I'm ready to name him as part of my 20th contrarian prediction. The 39-year-old won't be a top-10 QB despite 95% of 125 experts ranking him in the top 10. In fact, 18 experts -- including from Yahoo! Sports, CBS Sports, and Sports Illustrated place him anywhere from 2nd to 4th. That's insane, even for a legendary QB like Brees. As I wrote on July 18, my research showed that only five (22%) of his 2017 TDs started outside the opposing 20-yard line, well below his pre-2017 career total of 32% (150 out of 465). He also threw more passes behind the line of scrimmage last year (137) than in any year in the past decade. He averaged 119 per season since 2007. Dump-offs to Alvin Kamara partially carried him, as 32 of Kamara's 36 receptions for 10+ yards came on short passes, accounting for 616 yards and five touchdowns. There's a chance that's replicable this year, but I'd bet against it.
And more pointedly, Brees threw fewer passes beyond 10 yards (123) than in any year since his 11-game 2003 season. For context, he's averaged 196 per season since 2007. It’s not for lack of offensive talent. It’s just that Brees operates more conservatively. The Saints have figured out how to win (11-5 last season and a run at the conference title) without leaning as heavily as in past years on their future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. That will become even more apparent in 2018.
Back to ADP shifts . . . Among RBs, Adrian Peterson jumped from 87 to 47, which is no surprise after looking a decade younger in Friday's preseason start. But as I warned Saturday, AP's ascension is based more on some managers' desperate need for RB help than on actual season-long value. Another name from the past, Alfred Morris, climbed 13 spots to #80 on the RB rankings -- irrelevant on the one hand, but a sign that some deep-leaguers are preparing for the possibility of Jerick McKinnon or Matt Breida miss a chunk of time this year. Speaking of which, McKinnon descended from 13 to 16; I'd absolutely grab him there, purely based on upside potential.
Elsewhere, C.J. Anderson dropped from 39 to 44 because Christian McCaffrey has looked great this month. Chris Carson moved considerably closer to Rashaad Penny, bouncing five spots to 38th, while Penny fell nine spots to 30th. A seemingly healthy Chris Thompson leapt eight spots to 32. With Kenyan Drake strengthening his grip on Miami's starting job, old man Frank Gore fell from 61 to 66, while young man Kalen Ballage dropped 10 spots to 70th. And Doug Martin lost some luster, sliding from 52 to 58.
The final batch of RBs includes the very questionable D'Onta Foreman (46 to 56), the still undervalued James Conner (71 to 64), a couple overvalued Colt backs (Marlon Mack from 35 to 39 and Nyheim Hines from 47 to 55), Royce Freeman (25 to 20), and the skyrocketing Peyton Barber (57 to 43).
Among WRs, Antonio Callaway climbed six spots to 86th and remains very underrated as Cleveland's potential #3 wideout -- and a #2 contender of Josh Gordon can't play all season. Brandon Marshall moved from 97 to 89, though it might be too little, too late. Devante Parker is almost in a free-fall, dropping from 38 to 45 with plenty of room to drop further. Martavis Bryant gave up eight spots to 67. Pierre Garcon lost five spots to 39. And the two biggest WR gainers were John Brown (80 to 62) and Taywan Taylor (93 to 75); both are possible deep-league bye-week streamers for their big-play abilities.
Finally, at TE, Hayden Hurst will miss one or two games with a stress fracture in his foot, sending his stock plummeting from deep-league draftable (18th) to unquestionable waiver fodder (24th). And a recent knee injury to Luke Willson transformed him from an undervalued deep-league streamer (with a misguided TE-30 ADP) to undraftable for as long as he's out (TE-37).
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While QB hasn't seen any recent dramatic movement among draftable players, Jameis Winston made the "biggest" jump among all QB1s and QB2s, shifting from a 23-QB ADP to 21. Meanwhile, three pairs of players swapped positions: Drew Brees passed Carson Wentz to reach the #6 spot, Kirk Cousins replaced Andrew Luck at the #8 spot, and Tom Brady is now at #3 after moving past Russell Wilson.
Speaking of Brees, I'm ready to name him as part of my 20th contrarian prediction. The 39-year-old won't be a top-10 QB despite 95% of 125 experts ranking him in the top 10. In fact, 18 experts -- including from Yahoo! Sports, CBS Sports, and Sports Illustrated place him anywhere from 2nd to 4th. That's insane, even for a legendary QB like Brees. As I wrote on July 18, my research showed that only five (22%) of his 2017 TDs started outside the opposing 20-yard line, well below his pre-2017 career total of 32% (150 out of 465). He also threw more passes behind the line of scrimmage last year (137) than in any year in the past decade. He averaged 119 per season since 2007. Dump-offs to Alvin Kamara partially carried him, as 32 of Kamara's 36 receptions for 10+ yards came on short passes, accounting for 616 yards and five touchdowns. There's a chance that's replicable this year, but I'd bet against it.
And more pointedly, Brees threw fewer passes beyond 10 yards (123) than in any year since his 11-game 2003 season. For context, he's averaged 196 per season since 2007. It’s not for lack of offensive talent. It’s just that Brees operates more conservatively. The Saints have figured out how to win (11-5 last season and a run at the conference title) without leaning as heavily as in past years on their future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. That will become even more apparent in 2018.
Back to ADP shifts . . . Among RBs, Adrian Peterson jumped from 87 to 47, which is no surprise after looking a decade younger in Friday's preseason start. But as I warned Saturday, AP's ascension is based more on some managers' desperate need for RB help than on actual season-long value. Another name from the past, Alfred Morris, climbed 13 spots to #80 on the RB rankings -- irrelevant on the one hand, but a sign that some deep-leaguers are preparing for the possibility of Jerick McKinnon or Matt Breida miss a chunk of time this year. Speaking of which, McKinnon descended from 13 to 16; I'd absolutely grab him there, purely based on upside potential.
Elsewhere, C.J. Anderson dropped from 39 to 44 because Christian McCaffrey has looked great this month. Chris Carson moved considerably closer to Rashaad Penny, bouncing five spots to 38th, while Penny fell nine spots to 30th. A seemingly healthy Chris Thompson leapt eight spots to 32. With Kenyan Drake strengthening his grip on Miami's starting job, old man Frank Gore fell from 61 to 66, while young man Kalen Ballage dropped 10 spots to 70th. And Doug Martin lost some luster, sliding from 52 to 58.
The final batch of RBs includes the very questionable D'Onta Foreman (46 to 56), the still undervalued James Conner (71 to 64), a couple overvalued Colt backs (Marlon Mack from 35 to 39 and Nyheim Hines from 47 to 55), Royce Freeman (25 to 20), and the skyrocketing Peyton Barber (57 to 43).
Among WRs, Antonio Callaway climbed six spots to 86th and remains very underrated as Cleveland's potential #3 wideout -- and a #2 contender of Josh Gordon can't play all season. Brandon Marshall moved from 97 to 89, though it might be too little, too late. Devante Parker is almost in a free-fall, dropping from 38 to 45 with plenty of room to drop further. Martavis Bryant gave up eight spots to 67. Pierre Garcon lost five spots to 39. And the two biggest WR gainers were John Brown (80 to 62) and Taywan Taylor (93 to 75); both are possible deep-league bye-week streamers for their big-play abilities.
Finally, at TE, Hayden Hurst will miss one or two games with a stress fracture in his foot, sending his stock plummeting from deep-league draftable (18th) to unquestionable waiver fodder (24th). And a recent knee injury to Luke Willson transformed him from an undervalued deep-league streamer (with a misguided TE-30 ADP) to undraftable for as long as he's out (TE-37).
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