I'm seeing too many people reach for three overvalued WRs. So this is as good a day as any to talk about it.
(1) Josh Gordon -- Subscribers to my Top 300 Rankings often get some extra thoughts about topical players. Last week I gave them a warning about Gordon in light of reports that he would miss the start of training camp to get some counseling. All season he's been ranked as a high-end WR4 on my draft board. And all season he's been listed as a top-16 WR based on Average Draft Position. Most expert sites have placed him comfortably inside the top 20. And they still do, despite the latest news.
Either most of the fantasy universe is missing something, or I'm missing something. (Of course, the gap is big enough where maybe we're all missing something, and he'll finish somewhere in the top 26-30 range.)
I've been warning about Gordon all summer because (a) he's never played alongside a receiver as talented as Jarvis Landry, (b) he’s looked good -- but not great -- in limited action since 2014, and (c) he’s a constant off-field-disruption risk. This is a guy who’s been suspended three times by the NFL -- once for over two seasons -- and hasn’t played more than five games in a season since 2013. To believe Gordon will be a top-20 WR is to believe he'll mostly pick up where he left off five years ago. Not likely.
And last week's news makes it seem even less likely. I truly hope he returns to camp soon, and I hope he thrives on the field. But my rankings already built in my skepticism, and his recent news only reinforces that skepticism. He'll conceivably remain no better than a WR4 regardless of what he does, and doesn't do, in camp.
(2) Julian Edelman -- Edelman hasn't played in over 18 months, and it'll be another eight weeks or so before he takes the field. Last summer's season-ending injury and this summer's four-game suspension ruling has put Tom Brady's long-time favorite WR target on dangerous footing. His WR-30 ADP falls squarely between Michael Crabtree (28) and Will Fuller (29), and Chris Hogan (31) and Devin Funchess (32). I'd take any of these four over Edelman without hesitation.
Brady's seemingly never-ending dominance aside, I can't understand why Edelman's getting this much love. Here's one stat that should give everyone pause: Although he was the 15th highest scoring WR in 2016, he was third in targets (159). That's essentially 10 per game. He averaged nearly 10 a game in comparably impressive 2013 and 2014 seasons. Now he's 32, coming off a 20-month hiatus, and competing for targets with Gronk, Chris Hogan, and whoever fills in for him to open the season. I think the veteran will be lucky to net eight targets per game, leaving him just shy of 100 (in 12 games) and shy of the top 35.
(3) JuJu Smith-Schuster -- Is Smith-Schuster a rising star? Absolutely. It's not hard to see him supplanting Antonio Brown as Pittsburgh's #1 in five years. But his WR-19 ADP is too optimistic. True, last year two teams had two WRs in the top 20: Minnesota and Detroit. So it's entirely reasonable to think the Steelers can do it, too.
But consider this: in his final three games of 2017, the rookie racked up 21 catches for 332 yards and three scores. How? Because Brown was knocked out for the second in the second quarter of Week 15. Smith-Schuster averaged 24 fantasy points per game during that stretch, vs. 12.6 points per game in the other 10 contests when he caught at least one ball. Nothing wrong with 12.6, but if you believe as I do that James Washington will be an upgrade at the #3 WR spot, I don't see Smith-Schuster improving on his per-game production, at least not this year.
And one other interesting stat: Big Ben has only two top-8 QB fantasy seasons in 14 years. You read that right: in 12 of his 14 campaigns, he's finished outside the top 8, and he's been outside the top 12 in nine out of 14. For the Steelers to effectively feed an elite WR in Brown and a WR2 in Smith-Schuster, history shows the QB has to be near-elite. Ben is 36 and has only three 16-game seasons under his belt. He's a back-end QB1 if things break right, and unless Brown slips, that's not enough to keep Smith-Schuster in the WR2 conversation.
(1) Josh Gordon -- Subscribers to my Top 300 Rankings often get some extra thoughts about topical players. Last week I gave them a warning about Gordon in light of reports that he would miss the start of training camp to get some counseling. All season he's been ranked as a high-end WR4 on my draft board. And all season he's been listed as a top-16 WR based on Average Draft Position. Most expert sites have placed him comfortably inside the top 20. And they still do, despite the latest news.
Either most of the fantasy universe is missing something, or I'm missing something. (Of course, the gap is big enough where maybe we're all missing something, and he'll finish somewhere in the top 26-30 range.)
I've been warning about Gordon all summer because (a) he's never played alongside a receiver as talented as Jarvis Landry, (b) he’s looked good -- but not great -- in limited action since 2014, and (c) he’s a constant off-field-disruption risk. This is a guy who’s been suspended three times by the NFL -- once for over two seasons -- and hasn’t played more than five games in a season since 2013. To believe Gordon will be a top-20 WR is to believe he'll mostly pick up where he left off five years ago. Not likely.
And last week's news makes it seem even less likely. I truly hope he returns to camp soon, and I hope he thrives on the field. But my rankings already built in my skepticism, and his recent news only reinforces that skepticism. He'll conceivably remain no better than a WR4 regardless of what he does, and doesn't do, in camp.
(2) Julian Edelman -- Edelman hasn't played in over 18 months, and it'll be another eight weeks or so before he takes the field. Last summer's season-ending injury and this summer's four-game suspension ruling has put Tom Brady's long-time favorite WR target on dangerous footing. His WR-30 ADP falls squarely between Michael Crabtree (28) and Will Fuller (29), and Chris Hogan (31) and Devin Funchess (32). I'd take any of these four over Edelman without hesitation.
Brady's seemingly never-ending dominance aside, I can't understand why Edelman's getting this much love. Here's one stat that should give everyone pause: Although he was the 15th highest scoring WR in 2016, he was third in targets (159). That's essentially 10 per game. He averaged nearly 10 a game in comparably impressive 2013 and 2014 seasons. Now he's 32, coming off a 20-month hiatus, and competing for targets with Gronk, Chris Hogan, and whoever fills in for him to open the season. I think the veteran will be lucky to net eight targets per game, leaving him just shy of 100 (in 12 games) and shy of the top 35.
(3) JuJu Smith-Schuster -- Is Smith-Schuster a rising star? Absolutely. It's not hard to see him supplanting Antonio Brown as Pittsburgh's #1 in five years. But his WR-19 ADP is too optimistic. True, last year two teams had two WRs in the top 20: Minnesota and Detroit. So it's entirely reasonable to think the Steelers can do it, too.
But consider this: in his final three games of 2017, the rookie racked up 21 catches for 332 yards and three scores. How? Because Brown was knocked out for the second in the second quarter of Week 15. Smith-Schuster averaged 24 fantasy points per game during that stretch, vs. 12.6 points per game in the other 10 contests when he caught at least one ball. Nothing wrong with 12.6, but if you believe as I do that James Washington will be an upgrade at the #3 WR spot, I don't see Smith-Schuster improving on his per-game production, at least not this year.
And one other interesting stat: Big Ben has only two top-8 QB fantasy seasons in 14 years. You read that right: in 12 of his 14 campaigns, he's finished outside the top 8, and he's been outside the top 12 in nine out of 14. For the Steelers to effectively feed an elite WR in Brown and a WR2 in Smith-Schuster, history shows the QB has to be near-elite. Ben is 36 and has only three 16-game seasons under his belt. He's a back-end QB1 if things break right, and unless Brown slips, that's not enough to keep Smith-Schuster in the WR2 conversation.