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Also a quick reminder: If you want to join the fourth annual FF4W Survivor Pool, click here: officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx.
League ID: 20432 / Password: mariota
It costs nothing, and it's a great way to remain interested in football if you suffer through a 1-5 start in your work league.
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I'm still on an RB kick, so here's another column featuring four overrated backs. Remember, we have more to gain and more to lose when drafting an RB early. The gains are obvious: whether PPR or Standard scoring, the best RBs consistently score more fantasy points than the best WRs, and next best RBs consistently score more than the next best WRs, and so on. The potential losses are also obvious: about one-fourth to one-third of RBs starting Week 1 will not be starting by the fantasy playoffs. The same can't be said for teams' #1 WRs.
So if we can avoid reaching for a riskier-than-average RB, we're at least increasing the odds of landing an RB corps that meets or exceeds expectations.
(1) David Johnson -- A couple days ago I posted a comment about Johnson, and feel it'd be better to amplify my opinion and invite more scrutiny. First of all, what he did in 2016 was downright incredible. In his first year as a lead back--in his second NFL season--Johnson scored more fantasy points than any other RB had done in 10 years, and he was only two points short of being the highest-scoring fantasy player in 10 years (Peyton Manning's 2013 season barely edged him). And so I'm increasingly skeptical of Johnson's RB-4 ADP and of experts' universal optimism surrounding him: All 88 experts tracked by Fantasy Pros ranks him in the top 6, with 83 of 88 placing him in the top 4. 10 even place him #1 overall. Here's my concern:
Yes, Johnson's coming off wrist surgery that cost him virtually the entire 2017 season. But that's not what concerns me most. He's returning to a different team than the top-10 offense he helped lead in 2016, principally because Sam Bradford circa 2018 is no Carson Palmer circa 2016. Arizona was 9th in passing offense in 2016. Defenses couldn't crowd the box without giving up too much to Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, etc. This year's passing offense will be markedly worse, and Johnson won't have the same room to run. Think Todd Gurley in 2016, when defenses targeted him mercifully because Jared Goff couldn't keep them honest. Also, in his final 10 games of 2016, Johnson averaged 3.7 YPC. He dominated in large part because of nearly 400 touches and 20 scores. That's not knock against him; it's a yellow flag heading into a season where he could be as great as he was in weeks 1-6, or he could require heavy volume to come close to his 2016 numbers.
Re-injury risk or not, I don't see Johnson as a top-4 RB. Instead, he's now hovering in the top 8-10 range, meaning I'll let an opponent grab him too early.
(2) Christian McCaffrey -- What's not to love about hype? When a head coach said it would be "ideal" for his lead back to earn 25-30 touches a game, that's fact, right? We can bank on that, right? Right?! Nothing against Carolina head coach Ron Rivera, but in the past few days he's been publicly pushing McCaffrey as a 200-carry RB capable of handling 400-480 touches this season. So let's slow things down a bit.
McCaffrey was 10th in RB PPR scoring last year and 15th in Standard because of a confluence of events unlikely to transpire in 2018. First, his backup RB was the aged Jonathan Stewart. This year he'll compete for backfield touches with the more competent C.J. Anderson. Second, Greg Olsen is healthy. When he was sidelined for much of 2017, McCaffrey averaged 16 fantasy points per game (PPR) with vs. 12 with Olsen on the field. Third, McCaffrey benefited from being one of Cam Newton's two best pass-catchers for much of the year. Kelvin Benjamin was gone in October. We know what happened with Olsen. The second-highest receiving yardage total among all active Carolina wideouts by season’s end was 202 (Russell Shepard). Brenton Bersin was third with 128 yards. The newly acquired D.J. Moore and Torrey Smith are instant upgrades, further cutting into McCaffrey's value.
The second-year back is frighteningly overrated at his RB-11 ADP. I don't care how many times Ron Rivera praises him. He's headed toward a regression.
(3) Sony Michel -- The Patriots' rookie has more yellow flags than the front of the United Nations building, if those flags were all painted yellow. I'm terrible with analogies today, but you get my point (maybe).
Here are all the ways the Michel's season, despite an RB-23 ADP, could go off the rails: First, he had some medical concerns heading into the NFL draft -- namely a "bone-on-bone" knee condition that could cut his career short. Not likely to impact him this season, but something to keep in mind for you dynasty folks. Second, he was never a bell-cow in college, so no one knows whether he can handle a large workload. Third, he averaged only 16 catches per season, reeling in only nine passes his senior year. With James White and Rex Burkhead in tow, Michel probably won't be used much in the passing game, thereby limiting his appeal in most leagues. Third, he fumbled 12 times in college -- once every 55 touches. Bill Belichick won't go for that. As with all Belichick RBs, Michel could run the ball great for five weeks, then commit two costly fumbles, and then be relegated to bench duty until he learns how to protect the ball better in practice. Fourth, no one can read Belichick's mind when it comes to RBs. Gambling on Michel as an RB2 is like gambling on pie you found on your front porch . . . and you live alone. Let someone else try it.
Also a quick reminder: If you want to join the fourth annual FF4W Survivor Pool, click here: officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx.
League ID: 20432 / Password: mariota
It costs nothing, and it's a great way to remain interested in football if you suffer through a 1-5 start in your work league.
---
I'm still on an RB kick, so here's another column featuring four overrated backs. Remember, we have more to gain and more to lose when drafting an RB early. The gains are obvious: whether PPR or Standard scoring, the best RBs consistently score more fantasy points than the best WRs, and next best RBs consistently score more than the next best WRs, and so on. The potential losses are also obvious: about one-fourth to one-third of RBs starting Week 1 will not be starting by the fantasy playoffs. The same can't be said for teams' #1 WRs.
So if we can avoid reaching for a riskier-than-average RB, we're at least increasing the odds of landing an RB corps that meets or exceeds expectations.
(1) David Johnson -- A couple days ago I posted a comment about Johnson, and feel it'd be better to amplify my opinion and invite more scrutiny. First of all, what he did in 2016 was downright incredible. In his first year as a lead back--in his second NFL season--Johnson scored more fantasy points than any other RB had done in 10 years, and he was only two points short of being the highest-scoring fantasy player in 10 years (Peyton Manning's 2013 season barely edged him). And so I'm increasingly skeptical of Johnson's RB-4 ADP and of experts' universal optimism surrounding him: All 88 experts tracked by Fantasy Pros ranks him in the top 6, with 83 of 88 placing him in the top 4. 10 even place him #1 overall. Here's my concern:
Yes, Johnson's coming off wrist surgery that cost him virtually the entire 2017 season. But that's not what concerns me most. He's returning to a different team than the top-10 offense he helped lead in 2016, principally because Sam Bradford circa 2018 is no Carson Palmer circa 2016. Arizona was 9th in passing offense in 2016. Defenses couldn't crowd the box without giving up too much to Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, etc. This year's passing offense will be markedly worse, and Johnson won't have the same room to run. Think Todd Gurley in 2016, when defenses targeted him mercifully because Jared Goff couldn't keep them honest. Also, in his final 10 games of 2016, Johnson averaged 3.7 YPC. He dominated in large part because of nearly 400 touches and 20 scores. That's not knock against him; it's a yellow flag heading into a season where he could be as great as he was in weeks 1-6, or he could require heavy volume to come close to his 2016 numbers.
Re-injury risk or not, I don't see Johnson as a top-4 RB. Instead, he's now hovering in the top 8-10 range, meaning I'll let an opponent grab him too early.
(2) Christian McCaffrey -- What's not to love about hype? When a head coach said it would be "ideal" for his lead back to earn 25-30 touches a game, that's fact, right? We can bank on that, right? Right?! Nothing against Carolina head coach Ron Rivera, but in the past few days he's been publicly pushing McCaffrey as a 200-carry RB capable of handling 400-480 touches this season. So let's slow things down a bit.
McCaffrey was 10th in RB PPR scoring last year and 15th in Standard because of a confluence of events unlikely to transpire in 2018. First, his backup RB was the aged Jonathan Stewart. This year he'll compete for backfield touches with the more competent C.J. Anderson. Second, Greg Olsen is healthy. When he was sidelined for much of 2017, McCaffrey averaged 16 fantasy points per game (PPR) with vs. 12 with Olsen on the field. Third, McCaffrey benefited from being one of Cam Newton's two best pass-catchers for much of the year. Kelvin Benjamin was gone in October. We know what happened with Olsen. The second-highest receiving yardage total among all active Carolina wideouts by season’s end was 202 (Russell Shepard). Brenton Bersin was third with 128 yards. The newly acquired D.J. Moore and Torrey Smith are instant upgrades, further cutting into McCaffrey's value.
The second-year back is frighteningly overrated at his RB-11 ADP. I don't care how many times Ron Rivera praises him. He's headed toward a regression.
(3) Sony Michel -- The Patriots' rookie has more yellow flags than the front of the United Nations building, if those flags were all painted yellow. I'm terrible with analogies today, but you get my point (maybe).
Here are all the ways the Michel's season, despite an RB-23 ADP, could go off the rails: First, he had some medical concerns heading into the NFL draft -- namely a "bone-on-bone" knee condition that could cut his career short. Not likely to impact him this season, but something to keep in mind for you dynasty folks. Second, he was never a bell-cow in college, so no one knows whether he can handle a large workload. Third, he averaged only 16 catches per season, reeling in only nine passes his senior year. With James White and Rex Burkhead in tow, Michel probably won't be used much in the passing game, thereby limiting his appeal in most leagues. Third, he fumbled 12 times in college -- once every 55 touches. Bill Belichick won't go for that. As with all Belichick RBs, Michel could run the ball great for five weeks, then commit two costly fumbles, and then be relegated to bench duty until he learns how to protect the ball better in practice. Fourth, no one can read Belichick's mind when it comes to RBs. Gambling on Michel as an RB2 is like gambling on pie you found on your front porch . . . and you live alone. Let someone else try it.