There's a hierarchy in fantasy football that, depending on league scoring, more often than not starts with elite RBs and then elite WRs, followed by near-elite RBs and maybe an elite QB or two. TEs often make their first appearance in the second or third round. And on and on 'til DSTs and kickers get their moments in the sun. If your league's deep enough, handcuff RBs are long-term draft-and-hold assets.
But what about third- and fourth-string RBs? When do we think about them? In most leagues, almost never. Or at least almost never on draft day. Either there's not enough bench space to house them, or they're viewed as Hail Mary passes when compared to higher-floor options elsewhere.
Scanning this summer's average draft positions, the highest ranked #3 RBs are guys who, with a strong camp, could ascend to #2 or even, eventually, #1. This group is led by Aaron Jones (105 ADP), who's suspended to start the season, and therefore will have to dig out of a hole to ascend Green Bay's depth chart. But you and I know he has a decent shot at fantasy relevance. Next up is rookie Nick Chubb (113 ADP), who some predict will leapfrog Carlos Hyde by midseason, eventually splitting time with Duke Johnson or, at worst, with both Duke and Hyde.
To find the next presumed #3 on the list, we have to go all the way down to #154: James White, who in any given week could lead New England's backfield in fantasy scoring, and in any other week could get two touches for 11 yards. And the next best #3 is Kenneth Dixon (#178), who's battling back from a season-ending knee injury.
If you're in a 12-team league where everyone drafts 15 players, that's 180 guys taken. That means it's highly unlikely more than four third-string RBs will come off the board--and that's an optimistic total. With few exceptions, all but a few of these back-benchers are waiver fodder to start the season.
But while researching last summer's third- and fourth-stringers, I was shocked (though not that shocked) to see how many rose to prominence during the 2017 season. Here's a brief rundown. Note that Rex Burkhead was behind Mike Gillislee and James White last summer despite getting some prescient love from some of you, while Chris Thompson was expected to be a limited-usage change-of-pace back behind Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine:
- Alvin Kamara: #3 fantasy scoring RB
- Jerick McKinnon: #17 RB
- Kenyan Drake: #33 RB despite starting only nine games
- Javorius Allen: #23 RB
- Chris Carson: RB2/3 for the first four weeks before getting hurt
- Chris Thompson: #28 RB despite playing only 10 games
- Rex Burkhead: #39 RB despite playing only 10 games
- Jamaal Williams: #32 RB despite playing only half a season
- Austin Ekeler: #45 RB despite playing only 13 games
In the late stages of drafts, why did so many managers settle for a WR5/6 like Travis Benjamin or Terrance Williams? Why did they throw in the towel and grab a low-upside backup TE like Jesse James or Antonio Gates? Always, always, always take a chance on a high-upside RB instead -- someone who, if things break right, can help you win a title. Not someone who at best will give you streaming adequacy.
Here are the third- and fourth-string RBs I'm closely watching in camp. Based on historical trends, I strongly believe at least a half-dozen will be fantasy-relevant at some point this season:
(1) Kalen Ballage (RB-61 ADP / Overall-199 ADP) -- Rookie Miami running behind the very capable Kenyan Drake and the very aged Frank Gore. Ballage is also adept in the passing game, which instantly raises his profile.
(2) James White (51/154) -- RB depth charts are always fluid in Bill Belichick's world. Nevertheless, Rex Burkhead (RB-36) and Sony Michel (RB-23) are getting a lot more love this summer, and I question the former's durability and the latter's ball control.
(3) Thomas Rawls (117/427) -- The former 2015 late-season standout has only a slim chance of making his way back. But running behind Isaiah Crowell, Bilal Powell, and Elijah McGuire helps. Can't imagine Rawls has gone in any of your drafts. But he's a far better flyer than most players going 100-150 spots earlier.
(4) Kenneth Dixon (56/178) -- Once believed to be the Ravens' back of the future . . . now recovering from a lost season and finding himself well behind Alex Collins and Javorius Allen. Still, the talent is there. All that's missing is the opportunity.
(5) Nick Chubb (42/113) -- Per above. He's the highest-upside option in Cleveland's backfield.
(6) Jordan Wilkins (59/191) -- The rookie is running fourth in Indy, but with no clear #1 (Marlon Mack has one of the league's weakest holds on the top RB position), Wilkins is a name to watch.
(7) Justin Jackson (78/281) -- One of my favorite rookies, period, and in a high-powered offense.
(8/9) Samaje Perine (65/212) and Rob Kelley (92/348) -- A bad o-line didn't help either of these guys last season. Derrius Guice is all hype right now, while Chris Thompson will never be a bell-cow (though he's extraordinarily good at what he does). There's an opening for redemption from one of Washington's past starters.
(10) Aaron Jones (40/105) -- Per above. Too many people are sleeping on him. Ty Montgomery is not bell-cow material, meaning Jones or Jamaal Williams could earn 15+ touches a game for a good chunk of the season.
(11) Ito Smith (76/276) -- Why would anyone want to draft a third-stringer behind fantasy mainstays Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman? Because the rookie Smith is quite good. And because things happen . . .
(12) John Kelly (72/265) -- Another rookie, this time running behind a heavily worked Todd Gurley. There's an opening for huge usage down the road if Gurley's forced to sit.
(13) Joe Williams (86/314) -- Leapfrogging Matt Breida is far from improbably for Williams, a 2017 fourth rounder with plenty of upside if Jerick McKinnon goes down.
But what about third- and fourth-string RBs? When do we think about them? In most leagues, almost never. Or at least almost never on draft day. Either there's not enough bench space to house them, or they're viewed as Hail Mary passes when compared to higher-floor options elsewhere.
Scanning this summer's average draft positions, the highest ranked #3 RBs are guys who, with a strong camp, could ascend to #2 or even, eventually, #1. This group is led by Aaron Jones (105 ADP), who's suspended to start the season, and therefore will have to dig out of a hole to ascend Green Bay's depth chart. But you and I know he has a decent shot at fantasy relevance. Next up is rookie Nick Chubb (113 ADP), who some predict will leapfrog Carlos Hyde by midseason, eventually splitting time with Duke Johnson or, at worst, with both Duke and Hyde.
To find the next presumed #3 on the list, we have to go all the way down to #154: James White, who in any given week could lead New England's backfield in fantasy scoring, and in any other week could get two touches for 11 yards. And the next best #3 is Kenneth Dixon (#178), who's battling back from a season-ending knee injury.
If you're in a 12-team league where everyone drafts 15 players, that's 180 guys taken. That means it's highly unlikely more than four third-string RBs will come off the board--and that's an optimistic total. With few exceptions, all but a few of these back-benchers are waiver fodder to start the season.
But while researching last summer's third- and fourth-stringers, I was shocked (though not that shocked) to see how many rose to prominence during the 2017 season. Here's a brief rundown. Note that Rex Burkhead was behind Mike Gillislee and James White last summer despite getting some prescient love from some of you, while Chris Thompson was expected to be a limited-usage change-of-pace back behind Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine:
- Alvin Kamara: #3 fantasy scoring RB
- Jerick McKinnon: #17 RB
- Kenyan Drake: #33 RB despite starting only nine games
- Javorius Allen: #23 RB
- Chris Carson: RB2/3 for the first four weeks before getting hurt
- Chris Thompson: #28 RB despite playing only 10 games
- Rex Burkhead: #39 RB despite playing only 10 games
- Jamaal Williams: #32 RB despite playing only half a season
- Austin Ekeler: #45 RB despite playing only 13 games
In the late stages of drafts, why did so many managers settle for a WR5/6 like Travis Benjamin or Terrance Williams? Why did they throw in the towel and grab a low-upside backup TE like Jesse James or Antonio Gates? Always, always, always take a chance on a high-upside RB instead -- someone who, if things break right, can help you win a title. Not someone who at best will give you streaming adequacy.
Here are the third- and fourth-string RBs I'm closely watching in camp. Based on historical trends, I strongly believe at least a half-dozen will be fantasy-relevant at some point this season:
(1) Kalen Ballage (RB-61 ADP / Overall-199 ADP) -- Rookie Miami running behind the very capable Kenyan Drake and the very aged Frank Gore. Ballage is also adept in the passing game, which instantly raises his profile.
(2) James White (51/154) -- RB depth charts are always fluid in Bill Belichick's world. Nevertheless, Rex Burkhead (RB-36) and Sony Michel (RB-23) are getting a lot more love this summer, and I question the former's durability and the latter's ball control.
(3) Thomas Rawls (117/427) -- The former 2015 late-season standout has only a slim chance of making his way back. But running behind Isaiah Crowell, Bilal Powell, and Elijah McGuire helps. Can't imagine Rawls has gone in any of your drafts. But he's a far better flyer than most players going 100-150 spots earlier.
(4) Kenneth Dixon (56/178) -- Once believed to be the Ravens' back of the future . . . now recovering from a lost season and finding himself well behind Alex Collins and Javorius Allen. Still, the talent is there. All that's missing is the opportunity.
(5) Nick Chubb (42/113) -- Per above. He's the highest-upside option in Cleveland's backfield.
(6) Jordan Wilkins (59/191) -- The rookie is running fourth in Indy, but with no clear #1 (Marlon Mack has one of the league's weakest holds on the top RB position), Wilkins is a name to watch.
(7) Justin Jackson (78/281) -- One of my favorite rookies, period, and in a high-powered offense.
(8/9) Samaje Perine (65/212) and Rob Kelley (92/348) -- A bad o-line didn't help either of these guys last season. Derrius Guice is all hype right now, while Chris Thompson will never be a bell-cow (though he's extraordinarily good at what he does). There's an opening for redemption from one of Washington's past starters.
(10) Aaron Jones (40/105) -- Per above. Too many people are sleeping on him. Ty Montgomery is not bell-cow material, meaning Jones or Jamaal Williams could earn 15+ touches a game for a good chunk of the season.
(11) Ito Smith (76/276) -- Why would anyone want to draft a third-stringer behind fantasy mainstays Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman? Because the rookie Smith is quite good. And because things happen . . .
(12) John Kelly (72/265) -- Another rookie, this time running behind a heavily worked Todd Gurley. There's an opening for huge usage down the road if Gurley's forced to sit.
(13) Joe Williams (86/314) -- Leapfrogging Matt Breida is far from improbably for Williams, a 2017 fourth rounder with plenty of upside if Jerick McKinnon goes down.