Running backs: No other position offers nearly as much boom-bust potential. With few exceptions, and barring injuries, QBs starting Week 1 are still starting in the fantasy playoffs. The same goes for most teams' #1 and #2 WRs and #1 TE. Even kickers are fairly reliable. But running backs?
Last May, Fox Sports ranked all 32 starting backs: www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/nfl-2017-ranking-all-32-starting-running-backs-052817. 12 turned out to be unmitigated busts. Among ESPN's top 20 preseason PPR RBs on the eve of Week 1, 13 finished in the top 20 while seven were moderate-to-significant underperformers. And three of the seven top-20 fantasy RBs were outside the top 50 in nearly everyone's preseason rankings: Jerick McKinnon, Dion Lewis, and Alvin Kamara.
And it's important to note that last year's surprises, when taken collectively, were not all that surprising. The fact is, every year many "undraftable" RBs ascend to every-week-starter status. Yes, it also happens with QBs and WRs, but not with the same frequency. That's why drafting an RB in the first round is the biggest risk we can take among the "big three" positions. Yet many of us seemingly need to do it, because reliable RBs are so hard to come by. In my recent draft, I surprised myself and went RB-RB, despite knowing there's a decent probability one of the two will be a bust. Or at least, I'm more likely to get burned by that decision than if I'd gone WR-QB.
But we're drawn to the impactful lure of RB dominance. Guys like Todd Gurley in 2017 or David Johnson in 2016 can mean the difference between a first-round playoff loss and a fantasy title. So while we must take these risks, we also must recognize the extraordinary value of late-round RBs with starter potential -- guys who are one injury or demotion away from seizing a bell-cow role. Because no other position offers such dramatic upside among so many (a dozen or more) players every summer.
Bell-cow potential is key. I don't waste time with split-time backs who aren't built to handle 250+ touches. I'm rarely looking for an every-week RB3, unless he's one injury away from an every-down role. I'm investing in RB6's with RB1 upside. Later this week I'll walk through my recent draft, where I snagged more than 25% of all RB handcuffs. If one or two hit for even half a season (a decent probability), I'll have secured better value from those late-round selections than most of us get from our mid-round picks.
Two of my targeted handcuffs were Le'Veon Bell backup James Conner and LeSean McCoy backup Chris Ivory. Why? Bell had a career-high 406 touches last year -- 36th most all-time. 16 of the 35 times (46%) an RB has had more touches, they experienced a significant production dip the following season. Bell's notable suspension and injury history arguably makes him one of the riskiest elite positional players in fantasy (alongside Rob Gronkowski). Conner has a fantastic shot at starting at least two or three games this year. Meanwhile, the 29-year-old McCoy had 346 touches last year. Among the 12 29-year-olds who've earned more touches in a season, nine (67%) experienced a significant production dip the following year. McCoy carries a yellow flag even if he's not suspended, and it makes the veteran Chris Ivory a high-end handcuff, even in what could be a bottom-5 NFL offense.
Again, to be clear, I'm not suggesting avoiding RBs in the early rounds. But I am pointing out the objective fact that on average, starting RBs are riskier than other positional starters when it comes to health and depth chart standing. DeAndre Hopkins won't end the season as Houston's #3 wideout. But the same can't be guaranteed for teammate Lamar Miller.
We must embrace RBs on draft day, and we also must brace for the uncertainty they bring. And it's that uncertainty that creates such extraordinary opportunity on draft day.
Last May, Fox Sports ranked all 32 starting backs: www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/nfl-2017-ranking-all-32-starting-running-backs-052817. 12 turned out to be unmitigated busts. Among ESPN's top 20 preseason PPR RBs on the eve of Week 1, 13 finished in the top 20 while seven were moderate-to-significant underperformers. And three of the seven top-20 fantasy RBs were outside the top 50 in nearly everyone's preseason rankings: Jerick McKinnon, Dion Lewis, and Alvin Kamara.
And it's important to note that last year's surprises, when taken collectively, were not all that surprising. The fact is, every year many "undraftable" RBs ascend to every-week-starter status. Yes, it also happens with QBs and WRs, but not with the same frequency. That's why drafting an RB in the first round is the biggest risk we can take among the "big three" positions. Yet many of us seemingly need to do it, because reliable RBs are so hard to come by. In my recent draft, I surprised myself and went RB-RB, despite knowing there's a decent probability one of the two will be a bust. Or at least, I'm more likely to get burned by that decision than if I'd gone WR-QB.
But we're drawn to the impactful lure of RB dominance. Guys like Todd Gurley in 2017 or David Johnson in 2016 can mean the difference between a first-round playoff loss and a fantasy title. So while we must take these risks, we also must recognize the extraordinary value of late-round RBs with starter potential -- guys who are one injury or demotion away from seizing a bell-cow role. Because no other position offers such dramatic upside among so many (a dozen or more) players every summer.
Bell-cow potential is key. I don't waste time with split-time backs who aren't built to handle 250+ touches. I'm rarely looking for an every-week RB3, unless he's one injury away from an every-down role. I'm investing in RB6's with RB1 upside. Later this week I'll walk through my recent draft, where I snagged more than 25% of all RB handcuffs. If one or two hit for even half a season (a decent probability), I'll have secured better value from those late-round selections than most of us get from our mid-round picks.
Two of my targeted handcuffs were Le'Veon Bell backup James Conner and LeSean McCoy backup Chris Ivory. Why? Bell had a career-high 406 touches last year -- 36th most all-time. 16 of the 35 times (46%) an RB has had more touches, they experienced a significant production dip the following season. Bell's notable suspension and injury history arguably makes him one of the riskiest elite positional players in fantasy (alongside Rob Gronkowski). Conner has a fantastic shot at starting at least two or three games this year. Meanwhile, the 29-year-old McCoy had 346 touches last year. Among the 12 29-year-olds who've earned more touches in a season, nine (67%) experienced a significant production dip the following year. McCoy carries a yellow flag even if he's not suspended, and it makes the veteran Chris Ivory a high-end handcuff, even in what could be a bottom-5 NFL offense.
Again, to be clear, I'm not suggesting avoiding RBs in the early rounds. But I am pointing out the objective fact that on average, starting RBs are riskier than other positional starters when it comes to health and depth chart standing. DeAndre Hopkins won't end the season as Houston's #3 wideout. But the same can't be guaranteed for teammate Lamar Miller.
We must embrace RBs on draft day, and we also must brace for the uncertainty they bring. And it's that uncertainty that creates such extraordinary opportunity on draft day.