"I pick 11th in the first round. Who should I get?"
That's the most common type of question I get this time of year. What's the right answer? There is none until you're on the clock.
Today's column focuses on following the flow of a snake draft. For you auction folks, I wrote the following a couple years ago, which hopefully remains pretty relevant today:
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2016/08/the-ideal-auction-draft-strategy.html
Today I'll briefly discuss draft flow in the context of my recent PPR draft.
If you trust your rankings and thoroughly understand your league's scoring rules, there's no reason to stress on draft day. When I was recently assigned the #5 spot in the first round, my only concern was whether I'd take a chance on the high-upside David Johnson or opt instead for an elite WR. I ended up choosing neither, because one of the managers in front of me didn't pick as expected.
The rest of the draft, here are the two questions I'm continually asking myself:
(1) "Who do my rankings say I should pick next?" That's not always the right answer, because draft flow could dictate that I forego a planned pick (like a mid-range RB2) for a strategic positional selection (like the last near-elite TE on the board). But I should always be cognizant of my rankings, which at all times show the best available players remaining.
And "best available" is a sticky subject. What does it mean to be "best available"?
(a) The most project fantasy points? In Round 6 of a PPR league that might be, for example, Tarik Cohen (72 ADP).
(b) The highest-upside player? That would place the far "worse" Gio Bernard (136 ADP) ahead of Cohen, as Cohen doesn't have bell-cow potential if Jordan Howard is out, while Gio does if Joe Mixon sits.
(c) The highest-floor player? I'd place Devin Funchess (74 ADP) above Cohen on that scale.
(d) The highest-upside positional player, based on total projected points above the next best positional player? Delanie Walker (73 ADP) and Kyle Rudolph (75 ADP) would be among the last weekly fantasy TE starters available, making them more valuable draft picks at this stage than Cohen.
(e) The highest-floor positional player, based on total projected points above the next best positional player? Any of a dozen or more players could qualify here.
There's no one right answer to the "best available" question; simply appreciate that there are multiple right answers based on how much risk you're willing to take.
(2) "Who are my opponents going to pick next?" I took several calculated risks, passing on relatively high-upside players in the middle rounds based on two criteria. First, by examining in real time the strengths and weaknesses of each opponent's roster, I could assess which holes they'd probably fill with their next 1-2 picks. If I'm weak at QB and most of my opponents -- those picking before my next turn -- are strong at QB, and if several high-value QB targets remain on the board, I can afford to focus elsewhere for at least one more round.
Second -- and this is critically important -- most managers use generic rankings based on ADP or whatever their league website shows them in the draft room. Kelvin Benjamin was ranked 140th in my league's draft room; that's an insanely poor ranking given he's his team's unquestionable #1 WR. So while he was inside my top 100, I felt pretty confident about selecting other guys at pick #'s 92, 101, and 116. I then grabbed him at 125, knowing by my next pick (140) he'd probably be gone.
That's why it's not only crucial to understand how we value each player, but also how our opponents likely value each player. I can't stress this enough. When we reach for guys we can wait on, we miss out on value. When we delay on guys we shouldn't wait on, we miss out on value.
The "who will my opponents pick" question also must consider the impact of "group-think." A couple times I had a strong sense that there was about to be a run on a position. We know how critical it is to start positional runs, not end them. With several near-elite WRs remaining on the board, I took a near-elite QB in the third round in the belief that a QB run was imminent. 15 of my opponents' next 22 picks were QBs. As a result, I was able to snatch up two near-elite WRs. Had I reached instead for one of those WRs in the third, my QB situation would have been meaningfully worse, with no WR benefit to compensate for the hit.
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Navigating a successful draft is like running a race where guile, not speed, wins. That's why mock drafts are so important. Practice, and keep practicing. Pick ninth in the first round 10 straight mocks and continually ask yourself -- and answer -- the two main questions above. Identify who's consistently overvalued and undervalued. Then do it 10 more times selecting first overall. Keep asking and answering the two main questions. Keep analyzing who's regularly overvalued and undervalued.
So when it's time for the real thing, we're ready.
That's the most common type of question I get this time of year. What's the right answer? There is none until you're on the clock.
Today's column focuses on following the flow of a snake draft. For you auction folks, I wrote the following a couple years ago, which hopefully remains pretty relevant today:
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2016/08/the-ideal-auction-draft-strategy.html
Today I'll briefly discuss draft flow in the context of my recent PPR draft.
If you trust your rankings and thoroughly understand your league's scoring rules, there's no reason to stress on draft day. When I was recently assigned the #5 spot in the first round, my only concern was whether I'd take a chance on the high-upside David Johnson or opt instead for an elite WR. I ended up choosing neither, because one of the managers in front of me didn't pick as expected.
The rest of the draft, here are the two questions I'm continually asking myself:
(1) "Who do my rankings say I should pick next?" That's not always the right answer, because draft flow could dictate that I forego a planned pick (like a mid-range RB2) for a strategic positional selection (like the last near-elite TE on the board). But I should always be cognizant of my rankings, which at all times show the best available players remaining.
And "best available" is a sticky subject. What does it mean to be "best available"?
(a) The most project fantasy points? In Round 6 of a PPR league that might be, for example, Tarik Cohen (72 ADP).
(b) The highest-upside player? That would place the far "worse" Gio Bernard (136 ADP) ahead of Cohen, as Cohen doesn't have bell-cow potential if Jordan Howard is out, while Gio does if Joe Mixon sits.
(c) The highest-floor player? I'd place Devin Funchess (74 ADP) above Cohen on that scale.
(d) The highest-upside positional player, based on total projected points above the next best positional player? Delanie Walker (73 ADP) and Kyle Rudolph (75 ADP) would be among the last weekly fantasy TE starters available, making them more valuable draft picks at this stage than Cohen.
(e) The highest-floor positional player, based on total projected points above the next best positional player? Any of a dozen or more players could qualify here.
There's no one right answer to the "best available" question; simply appreciate that there are multiple right answers based on how much risk you're willing to take.
(2) "Who are my opponents going to pick next?" I took several calculated risks, passing on relatively high-upside players in the middle rounds based on two criteria. First, by examining in real time the strengths and weaknesses of each opponent's roster, I could assess which holes they'd probably fill with their next 1-2 picks. If I'm weak at QB and most of my opponents -- those picking before my next turn -- are strong at QB, and if several high-value QB targets remain on the board, I can afford to focus elsewhere for at least one more round.
Second -- and this is critically important -- most managers use generic rankings based on ADP or whatever their league website shows them in the draft room. Kelvin Benjamin was ranked 140th in my league's draft room; that's an insanely poor ranking given he's his team's unquestionable #1 WR. So while he was inside my top 100, I felt pretty confident about selecting other guys at pick #'s 92, 101, and 116. I then grabbed him at 125, knowing by my next pick (140) he'd probably be gone.
That's why it's not only crucial to understand how we value each player, but also how our opponents likely value each player. I can't stress this enough. When we reach for guys we can wait on, we miss out on value. When we delay on guys we shouldn't wait on, we miss out on value.
The "who will my opponents pick" question also must consider the impact of "group-think." A couple times I had a strong sense that there was about to be a run on a position. We know how critical it is to start positional runs, not end them. With several near-elite WRs remaining on the board, I took a near-elite QB in the third round in the belief that a QB run was imminent. 15 of my opponents' next 22 picks were QBs. As a result, I was able to snatch up two near-elite WRs. Had I reached instead for one of those WRs in the third, my QB situation would have been meaningfully worse, with no WR benefit to compensate for the hit.
---
Navigating a successful draft is like running a race where guile, not speed, wins. That's why mock drafts are so important. Practice, and keep practicing. Pick ninth in the first round 10 straight mocks and continually ask yourself -- and answer -- the two main questions above. Identify who's consistently overvalued and undervalued. Then do it 10 more times selecting first overall. Keep asking and answering the two main questions. Keep analyzing who's regularly overvalued and undervalued.
So when it's time for the real thing, we're ready.