Here's the seemingly inconsequential conclusion of my recent draft -- though I have a feeling one or two of these guys will have some staying power beyond the preseason:
(Round 16) When Arizona drafted David Johnson in the late third round in 2015, essentially no one expected him to dominate one year later. Yes, he was/is very talented. But almost no one expected him to be an elite starter. Now recovered from a season-ending Week 1 wrist injury and unhappy with his contract, Johnson remains a high-upside RB, though not with the same unyielding grip on the starting job as similarly priced guys like Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, and Zeke Elliott have. He could hold out. He could lose his bell-cow status. Or most likely, he could return to dominance or even near-dominance. But let's face it: Johnson is far from a lock to recapture his 2016 glory. That makes rookie Chase Edmonds a useful pickup. Needing to beat out only T.J. Logan and D.J. Foster for handcuff duties, Edmonds is one of many rookie RBs I've been targeting, and I'm relieved he's still around. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Sam Bradford, Terrance West, Doug Martin)
(17) Spencer Ware's injury last summer expedited the rise of Kareem Hunt. These days Hunt is in the driver's seat, while Ware is trying to get back to 100% health and back to a meaningful role in Kansas City's backfield. I'd be foolish to expect him to supplant Hunt outright. But the experienced Ware is a highly competent back who should be solidly in the #2 position by Week 1. There's no way I'm passing on this bell-cow caliber, in-his-prime talent this round. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Sam Darnold, Javorius Allen, Kalen Ballage)
(18) I might have made a huge mistake not drafting Sam Darnold last round. He should earn the Jets' starting job sometime this season, and I'm probably the only manager with only two starting QBs. This was a complete oversight, and one that might come back to bite me if Deshaun Watson or Tyrod Taylor misses time. The same might go for Javorius Allen, though I deliberately passed on him knowing he probably wouldn't become the Ravens' bell-cow even if Alex Collins gets hurt. That said, stinging from the Darnold miss, I have to regroup and keep hammering away at handcuffs. This time's Todd Gurley's likely backup: rookie John Kelly. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Gio Bernard, Devontae Booker, Theo Riddick)
(19) Many of you have seen my (potentially flawed) warnings about Melvin Gordon dating back to last year. I strongly believe he needs to run more efficiently this year if he's to keep the bell-cow role. Not a very popular viewpoint (haven't seen anyone go out on this shaky limb), but I'm sticking with it. As a result, I'm also eyeing which Charger RB could force at least a time-share if things break right. Rookie Justin Jackson is my pick. The seventh-round rookie earned huge workloads across four years at Northwestern and was one of the better pass-catching backs in the draft (122 career receptions). At this late stage, he's worth a flyer a potentially valuable handcuff. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: James Washington, Dante Pettis, Cole Beasley)
(20) Thank goodness James Conner is still around. As I recently wrote, Le'Veon Bell's massive 2017 workload and suspension/injury history make him a higher-than-normal first-round risk. Conner is in line to inherit at least half (and likely more) of Pittsburgh's carries if Bell goes down. This has the potential to be a gold-mine pick, particularly when factoring the Steelers' high-end offense. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Josh Allen, A.J. McCarron, Mike Wallace)
(21) Samaje Perine remains on the board. Viewed last preseason as a likely starter after Washington selected him in the fourth round, Perine plodded his way to a 3.4 YPC, although an inferior o-line didn't help. And the rookie was effective as advertised in the passing game. Now running behind new rookie Derrius Guice and 2017 breakout Chris Thompson, Perine seems like a wasted pick, even in round 21. But he's a young, fairly versatile back who's one Guice or Thompson injury away from entering the RB3 conversation. That's good enough for me. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: De'Angelo Henderson, Zay Jones, Corey Coleman)
(22) I have a surprising number of decent options with my final selection. Waivers don't start up until right before Week 1, so I want a player with a decent chance at breaking out in August -- someone who would be highly sought after at the first waivers (in other words, someone I need to get now). With Zay Jones drafted seven picks ago, Kevin White is the last remaining potential team #2 wideout. The #7 overall pick in 2015, White has missed 43 of 48 NFL games due to a litany of bad breaks (literally and figuratively). A healthy White has top 30-40 WR potential. That's the rub, and that's a risk worth taking at pick #260. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Nathan Peterman, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jonnu Smith)
Drafted Roster:
STARTERS
QB Deshaun Watson
QB Tyrod Taylor
RB Ezekiel Elliott
RB Jerick McKinnon
WR Tyreek Hill
WR T.Y. Hilton
WR Corey Davis
WR Michael Crabtree
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Jordy Nelson
TE Greg Olsen
BENCH
RB C.J. Anderson
RB D’Onta Foreman
RB Chris Ivory
RB T.J. Yeldon
RB Chase Edmonds
RB Spencer Ware
RB John Kelly
RB Justin Jackson
RB James Conner
RB Samaje Perine
WR Kevin White
There's no right way to draft. If you picked Peyton Manning around his 19 ADP in 2013, you got a steal that catapulted some of you to the title. If you grabbed David Johnson at his 1 ADP last summer (like I did), and then added T.Y. Hilton (21 ADP) and Dez Bryant (22 ADP) at the 2-3 turn, you found yourself in a difficult hole to emerge from. Others last year might have gone Le'Veon Bell (2 ADP) and then Todd Gurley (18 ADP). What a difference.
Accurate predictions get us only so far. Freak injuries (Johnson's in Week 1) and critical teammate injuries (Andrew Luck's absence impacting Hilton) can dampen a season -- or at the very least, force some of us to get creative and bold with in-season maneuvering.
In the end, we make the best decisions we can with the information we have. There's no room for complaining. The only question post-draft is how frequently we'll need to shore up weaknesses that are bound to be exposed.
(Round 16) When Arizona drafted David Johnson in the late third round in 2015, essentially no one expected him to dominate one year later. Yes, he was/is very talented. But almost no one expected him to be an elite starter. Now recovered from a season-ending Week 1 wrist injury and unhappy with his contract, Johnson remains a high-upside RB, though not with the same unyielding grip on the starting job as similarly priced guys like Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, and Zeke Elliott have. He could hold out. He could lose his bell-cow status. Or most likely, he could return to dominance or even near-dominance. But let's face it: Johnson is far from a lock to recapture his 2016 glory. That makes rookie Chase Edmonds a useful pickup. Needing to beat out only T.J. Logan and D.J. Foster for handcuff duties, Edmonds is one of many rookie RBs I've been targeting, and I'm relieved he's still around. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Sam Bradford, Terrance West, Doug Martin)
(17) Spencer Ware's injury last summer expedited the rise of Kareem Hunt. These days Hunt is in the driver's seat, while Ware is trying to get back to 100% health and back to a meaningful role in Kansas City's backfield. I'd be foolish to expect him to supplant Hunt outright. But the experienced Ware is a highly competent back who should be solidly in the #2 position by Week 1. There's no way I'm passing on this bell-cow caliber, in-his-prime talent this round. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Sam Darnold, Javorius Allen, Kalen Ballage)
(18) I might have made a huge mistake not drafting Sam Darnold last round. He should earn the Jets' starting job sometime this season, and I'm probably the only manager with only two starting QBs. This was a complete oversight, and one that might come back to bite me if Deshaun Watson or Tyrod Taylor misses time. The same might go for Javorius Allen, though I deliberately passed on him knowing he probably wouldn't become the Ravens' bell-cow even if Alex Collins gets hurt. That said, stinging from the Darnold miss, I have to regroup and keep hammering away at handcuffs. This time's Todd Gurley's likely backup: rookie John Kelly. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Gio Bernard, Devontae Booker, Theo Riddick)
(19) Many of you have seen my (potentially flawed) warnings about Melvin Gordon dating back to last year. I strongly believe he needs to run more efficiently this year if he's to keep the bell-cow role. Not a very popular viewpoint (haven't seen anyone go out on this shaky limb), but I'm sticking with it. As a result, I'm also eyeing which Charger RB could force at least a time-share if things break right. Rookie Justin Jackson is my pick. The seventh-round rookie earned huge workloads across four years at Northwestern and was one of the better pass-catching backs in the draft (122 career receptions). At this late stage, he's worth a flyer a potentially valuable handcuff. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: James Washington, Dante Pettis, Cole Beasley)
(20) Thank goodness James Conner is still around. As I recently wrote, Le'Veon Bell's massive 2017 workload and suspension/injury history make him a higher-than-normal first-round risk. Conner is in line to inherit at least half (and likely more) of Pittsburgh's carries if Bell goes down. This has the potential to be a gold-mine pick, particularly when factoring the Steelers' high-end offense. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Josh Allen, A.J. McCarron, Mike Wallace)
(21) Samaje Perine remains on the board. Viewed last preseason as a likely starter after Washington selected him in the fourth round, Perine plodded his way to a 3.4 YPC, although an inferior o-line didn't help. And the rookie was effective as advertised in the passing game. Now running behind new rookie Derrius Guice and 2017 breakout Chris Thompson, Perine seems like a wasted pick, even in round 21. But he's a young, fairly versatile back who's one Guice or Thompson injury away from entering the RB3 conversation. That's good enough for me. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: De'Angelo Henderson, Zay Jones, Corey Coleman)
(22) I have a surprising number of decent options with my final selection. Waivers don't start up until right before Week 1, so I want a player with a decent chance at breaking out in August -- someone who would be highly sought after at the first waivers (in other words, someone I need to get now). With Zay Jones drafted seven picks ago, Kevin White is the last remaining potential team #2 wideout. The #7 overall pick in 2015, White has missed 43 of 48 NFL games due to a litany of bad breaks (literally and figuratively). A healthy White has top 30-40 WR potential. That's the rub, and that's a risk worth taking at pick #260. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Nathan Peterman, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jonnu Smith)
Drafted Roster:
STARTERS
QB Deshaun Watson
QB Tyrod Taylor
RB Ezekiel Elliott
RB Jerick McKinnon
WR Tyreek Hill
WR T.Y. Hilton
WR Corey Davis
WR Michael Crabtree
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Jordy Nelson
TE Greg Olsen
BENCH
RB C.J. Anderson
RB D’Onta Foreman
RB Chris Ivory
RB T.J. Yeldon
RB Chase Edmonds
RB Spencer Ware
RB John Kelly
RB Justin Jackson
RB James Conner
RB Samaje Perine
WR Kevin White
There's no right way to draft. If you picked Peyton Manning around his 19 ADP in 2013, you got a steal that catapulted some of you to the title. If you grabbed David Johnson at his 1 ADP last summer (like I did), and then added T.Y. Hilton (21 ADP) and Dez Bryant (22 ADP) at the 2-3 turn, you found yourself in a difficult hole to emerge from. Others last year might have gone Le'Veon Bell (2 ADP) and then Todd Gurley (18 ADP). What a difference.
Accurate predictions get us only so far. Freak injuries (Johnson's in Week 1) and critical teammate injuries (Andrew Luck's absence impacting Hilton) can dampen a season -- or at the very least, force some of us to get creative and bold with in-season maneuvering.
In the end, we make the best decisions we can with the information we have. There's no room for complaining. The only question post-draft is how frequently we'll need to shore up weaknesses that are bound to be exposed.