Yesterday I started my once-a-year public dissecting of my fantasy draft. Welcoming all scrutiny, as always. What did I get wrong, and what -- if anything -- makes sense? Picking back up . . .
(Round 6) By round 6 the best TEs are long gone, and I’m sensing an impending run on the remaining TE1s. So I pick a guy I’ve been eyeing for a couple rounds: Greg Olsen. In this league, the fifth best TE scores about 30-35% more than the 12th best, and Olsen is one of the best chain-moving TEs in fantasy, which helps in a league like this one that rewards first downs. In fact, each year from 2014 to 2016, he collected between the 13th and 17th most first downs among all WRs and TEs. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Sony Michel, Brandin Cooks, Jarvis Landry)
(7) Baker Mayfield is somehow rated higher than Tyrod Taylor in our league’s online draft room, which might explain why Taylor’s fallen through the cracks (more on this phenomenon in round 12). It’s also why I didn’t reach for Taylor in round 5, because ridiculously he’s also ranked lower than guys like Lamar Jackson and Josh Rosen. This is why I ignore other people’s rankings, and this is why I was able to land this likely top-16 QB (for as long as he's starting) with 23 QBs already off the board. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Lamar Miller, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones)
(8) For the third time this draft, the player I’m ready to pick gets snagged right before my turn. First it was Travis Kelce, then Davante Adams. This time it’s Golden Tate, who I easily would’ve taken one or two rounds ago if my #2 QB and #1 TE situations weren’t so pressing. This might prove to be a costly mistake, as I probably could have waited longer on Taylor. But I’m ready with a backup plan: Corey Davis, last year’s #5 overall NFL draft pick and Marcus Mariota’s clear #1 wideout. It’s a bit of a risk given Davis’s minimal rookie-year track record, but his upside is on par with Tate’s. And even though Chris Hogan is still available, based on this league's scoring rules (which rewards high-volume WRs), I don't want to miss out on Davis. Surely a tough call, and one I might regret by Week 3. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Chris Hogan, Emmanuel Sanders, Devin Funchess)
(9) In a league with four flex positions, and with the final three-down back taken several rounds ago, I remain focused on collecting as many team #1 wideouts as possible. Why? Because I can start up to six or seven WRs most weeks. Most team #1’s are locks for WR3+ production, and a majority produce WR2+ numbers. Michael Crabtree and Kelvin Benjamin remain on the board, as does Robby Anderson (with a possible league suspension looming), DeVante Parker (though Kenny Stills could outproduce him), Pierre Garcon (though he might get outplayed by Marquise Goodwin), Allen Hurns (possibly the #1, though historically he hasn't been a volume receiver), and Julian Edelman (though he’s no lock to be Brady’s #1 when he returns in Week 5). So I select Crabtree and make a note to revisit the uber-underappreciated Benjamin in round 11. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Isaiah Crowell, Julian Edelman, Robby Anderson)
(10) We’re approaching the “Wild West” portion of the draft, when most people have most of their starters and are now targeting “best available.” If Week 1 started tomorrow, C.J. Anderson would be the highest-volume RB available with the potential for 250 touches (the lesser-talented Jonathan Stewart earned 206 last season in a similar role). While I don’t like overpaying for timeshare RBs, that volume is too appealing to pass up when considering at the very least I'll need him during a couple bye weeks. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Tarik Cohen, Carlos Hyde, Will Fuller)
(11) Kelvin Benjamin is still around, and based on his ADP, someone will probably snag him before my next pick. So I make the move, landing the only remaining clear-cut team #1 wideout. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Rex Burkhead, Chris Thompson, Sterling Shepard)
(12) Jordy Nelson falls in my lap at pick #140. His PPR ADP is 98 and he’s 62nd on my draft board. Why didn’t I snag him sooner? Because the league draft room listed him at #138, and most fantasy managers won’t scan that far down until they reach the 120's or 130’s. That’s the psychology of drafting: knowing which certain undervalued bargains will fall through the cracks, and why. Nelson is a boom-bust option with WR2/3 upside -- the kind of player you shouldn’t be able to find in round 12. If he produces as I expect, he'll be my biggest non-RB steal of the draft. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Corey Clement, Calvin Ridley, David Njoku)
(13) With 10 rounds to go and six WRs on my roster -- and no obvious WR3+ receivers left -- I can confidently step away from that position. There are also no starting QBs remaining, and I don’t need to dig deep for a #2 TE; if Greg Olsen gets hurt, I’ll add his backup, who’ll likely be comparable to most currently available mid-range TE2s. That leaves RBs. And not just any RBs. We’re talking handcuff RBs. I don’t want guys in three-way backfield battles, and I don’t want complementary backs who aren’t capable of a workhorse role if the starter goes down. I want #2’s with the talent to become #1’s if called upon. Most of these guys have ADPs in the 200s. And many of them will be snagged eventually by fantasy managers seeking backups for their own starters. I want to draft as many as eight or nine handcuffs, giving me a very high probability that one or two or more will start during the season. D'Onta Foreman is near the top of my RB handcuff list and likely is the highest-upside one remaining, so I draft him. While certainly a risk to start the year hurt, he's the unquestioned backup to a highly vulnerable starter (Lamar Miller). (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Devontae Booker, Theo Riddick, Josh Doctson)
(14) The heavily utilized Leonard Fournette enters 2018 as an easy top-10 RB. He's also a higher-than-normal injury risk. Backup T.J. Yeldon -- a former standout college back and early second-round pick in 2015 -- was far more efficient on the ground last year (5.2 YPC vs. Fournette's 3.9) and is arguably comparably talented in the passing game. Yeldon is one of many starter-ready backs who can come in and post RB2 numbers if called upon. That's the caliber of player I want this late in the draft. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Chris Carson, Bilal Powell, Ricky Seals-Jones)
(15) I was hoping Carson would still be around, but it wasn't meant to be. Instead, with recent domestic violence allegations directed at LeSean McCoy, as well as McCoy's advanced age and heavy mileage, the perennial RB1 is a riskier pick than at any time since his 2009 rookie campaign. That makes presumed handcuff Chris Ivory -- a veteran with plenty of starter experience -- a much-needed add. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: James White, Tyler Lockett, Dede Westbrook)
Tomorrow I'll wrap up the draft and share some final thoughts on drafting before segueing into the next phase of the preseason: training camp and preseason games, and trying to make sense of all the ADP-shattering drama we're about to witness.
(Round 6) By round 6 the best TEs are long gone, and I’m sensing an impending run on the remaining TE1s. So I pick a guy I’ve been eyeing for a couple rounds: Greg Olsen. In this league, the fifth best TE scores about 30-35% more than the 12th best, and Olsen is one of the best chain-moving TEs in fantasy, which helps in a league like this one that rewards first downs. In fact, each year from 2014 to 2016, he collected between the 13th and 17th most first downs among all WRs and TEs. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Sony Michel, Brandin Cooks, Jarvis Landry)
(7) Baker Mayfield is somehow rated higher than Tyrod Taylor in our league’s online draft room, which might explain why Taylor’s fallen through the cracks (more on this phenomenon in round 12). It’s also why I didn’t reach for Taylor in round 5, because ridiculously he’s also ranked lower than guys like Lamar Jackson and Josh Rosen. This is why I ignore other people’s rankings, and this is why I was able to land this likely top-16 QB (for as long as he's starting) with 23 QBs already off the board. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Lamar Miller, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones)
(8) For the third time this draft, the player I’m ready to pick gets snagged right before my turn. First it was Travis Kelce, then Davante Adams. This time it’s Golden Tate, who I easily would’ve taken one or two rounds ago if my #2 QB and #1 TE situations weren’t so pressing. This might prove to be a costly mistake, as I probably could have waited longer on Taylor. But I’m ready with a backup plan: Corey Davis, last year’s #5 overall NFL draft pick and Marcus Mariota’s clear #1 wideout. It’s a bit of a risk given Davis’s minimal rookie-year track record, but his upside is on par with Tate’s. And even though Chris Hogan is still available, based on this league's scoring rules (which rewards high-volume WRs), I don't want to miss out on Davis. Surely a tough call, and one I might regret by Week 3. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Chris Hogan, Emmanuel Sanders, Devin Funchess)
(9) In a league with four flex positions, and with the final three-down back taken several rounds ago, I remain focused on collecting as many team #1 wideouts as possible. Why? Because I can start up to six or seven WRs most weeks. Most team #1’s are locks for WR3+ production, and a majority produce WR2+ numbers. Michael Crabtree and Kelvin Benjamin remain on the board, as does Robby Anderson (with a possible league suspension looming), DeVante Parker (though Kenny Stills could outproduce him), Pierre Garcon (though he might get outplayed by Marquise Goodwin), Allen Hurns (possibly the #1, though historically he hasn't been a volume receiver), and Julian Edelman (though he’s no lock to be Brady’s #1 when he returns in Week 5). So I select Crabtree and make a note to revisit the uber-underappreciated Benjamin in round 11. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Isaiah Crowell, Julian Edelman, Robby Anderson)
(10) We’re approaching the “Wild West” portion of the draft, when most people have most of their starters and are now targeting “best available.” If Week 1 started tomorrow, C.J. Anderson would be the highest-volume RB available with the potential for 250 touches (the lesser-talented Jonathan Stewart earned 206 last season in a similar role). While I don’t like overpaying for timeshare RBs, that volume is too appealing to pass up when considering at the very least I'll need him during a couple bye weeks. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Tarik Cohen, Carlos Hyde, Will Fuller)
(11) Kelvin Benjamin is still around, and based on his ADP, someone will probably snag him before my next pick. So I make the move, landing the only remaining clear-cut team #1 wideout. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Rex Burkhead, Chris Thompson, Sterling Shepard)
(12) Jordy Nelson falls in my lap at pick #140. His PPR ADP is 98 and he’s 62nd on my draft board. Why didn’t I snag him sooner? Because the league draft room listed him at #138, and most fantasy managers won’t scan that far down until they reach the 120's or 130’s. That’s the psychology of drafting: knowing which certain undervalued bargains will fall through the cracks, and why. Nelson is a boom-bust option with WR2/3 upside -- the kind of player you shouldn’t be able to find in round 12. If he produces as I expect, he'll be my biggest non-RB steal of the draft. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Corey Clement, Calvin Ridley, David Njoku)
(13) With 10 rounds to go and six WRs on my roster -- and no obvious WR3+ receivers left -- I can confidently step away from that position. There are also no starting QBs remaining, and I don’t need to dig deep for a #2 TE; if Greg Olsen gets hurt, I’ll add his backup, who’ll likely be comparable to most currently available mid-range TE2s. That leaves RBs. And not just any RBs. We’re talking handcuff RBs. I don’t want guys in three-way backfield battles, and I don’t want complementary backs who aren’t capable of a workhorse role if the starter goes down. I want #2’s with the talent to become #1’s if called upon. Most of these guys have ADPs in the 200s. And many of them will be snagged eventually by fantasy managers seeking backups for their own starters. I want to draft as many as eight or nine handcuffs, giving me a very high probability that one or two or more will start during the season. D'Onta Foreman is near the top of my RB handcuff list and likely is the highest-upside one remaining, so I draft him. While certainly a risk to start the year hurt, he's the unquestioned backup to a highly vulnerable starter (Lamar Miller). (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Devontae Booker, Theo Riddick, Josh Doctson)
(14) The heavily utilized Leonard Fournette enters 2018 as an easy top-10 RB. He's also a higher-than-normal injury risk. Backup T.J. Yeldon -- a former standout college back and early second-round pick in 2015 -- was far more efficient on the ground last year (5.2 YPC vs. Fournette's 3.9) and is arguably comparably talented in the passing game. Yeldon is one of many starter-ready backs who can come in and post RB2 numbers if called upon. That's the caliber of player I want this late in the draft. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Chris Carson, Bilal Powell, Ricky Seals-Jones)
(15) I was hoping Carson would still be around, but it wasn't meant to be. Instead, with recent domestic violence allegations directed at LeSean McCoy, as well as McCoy's advanced age and heavy mileage, the perennial RB1 is a riskier pick than at any time since his 2009 rookie campaign. That makes presumed handcuff Chris Ivory -- a veteran with plenty of starter experience -- a much-needed add. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: James White, Tyler Lockett, Dede Westbrook)
Tomorrow I'll wrap up the draft and share some final thoughts on drafting before segueing into the next phase of the preseason: training camp and preseason games, and trying to make sense of all the ADP-shattering drama we're about to witness.