Each summer I walk through my first (and usually last) fantasy draft of the season. This is a chance to put theory into practice -- to see how all these player assessments and rankings and draft strategies transfer to the most impactful concentrated moments of the fantasy season.
Once again I’m competing in the Scott Fish Bowl, which brings together 700+ fantasy competitors in 12-team divisions. Last year my draft was, in some ways, abysmal. My first pick (#1 overall) was David Johnson. My fifth and sixth rounders were Dez Bryant and Eric Ebron (though Ebron finally got going late). Picks nine, 10, and 11 were Kelvin Benjamin, Coby Fleener, and Joe Williams. Yeah, exactly.
On the flip side, I drafted two top-7 QBs (Kirk Cousins and Big Ben), the 10th, 11th, and 12th best WRs in the seventh and eighth and 12th rounds (Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, and Marvin Jones), and identified enough diamonds in the rough (like Kenyan Drake and Marqise Lee in rounds 16 and 17) to be competitive. With 264 players selected on draft day and no trading permitted, there's not much flexibility to improve your roster.
But I managed to overcome the loss of David Johnson and the absence of any other starting RB for several weeks (leading to a 1-3 start) to piece together a second-place finish and postseason berth at 8-4. We can't get hung up on defeat. Value can be found everywhere -- even in leagues where the best free agent available is a team's #4 wideout or a third-string RB. The key is continual research and patience.
This season each roster once again has 22 players, and we have to start 11 of them: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 4 Flex (can flex 1 QB). It’s PPR, with slight bonuses for first downs. And because we can start two QBs, and since QBs score more than most other players, it's essentially a two-QB league.
As you can see, my decision making wasn't always sound, and my picks weren't always savvy. I claim to be good at this, and yet I make more mistakes each season than I can count. As with last season, my goal is to acquire as many elite and potentially elite players as possible. My online draft "grades" are always at or near the bottom. That never matters. What matters is having a championship-caliber team by midseason. Hopefully this batch of players gives me a good shot.
Something else I need to remind myself of: drafting doesn't have to be stressful or frustrating. We know at the outset that about 90% of all weekly startable players will be snatched up by opponents. So let that sink in: in most cases, it's impossible to assemble anything remotely resembling a Week 1 All-Pro team. And yet, if we take some well-timed, high-probability chances, we might be able to look back three months later and see that our draft turned out far better than initially realized. And that's often the mark of a championship team. (And it's also why draft "grades" are generally bunk.)
(Round 1) I pick fifth, and somehow Ezekiel Elliott falls to me. While he's not as strong in PPR (25th among RBs in receptions in his 15-game 2016 season, and only marginally better per-game last year), he's a first-down RB monster: #1 in 2016, and somehow #7 in 2017 despite missing six games. You want an offensive centerpiece with your first pick, and this offense clearly runs through Zeke. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Antonio Brown)
(2) Coming back down I grab Jerick McKinnon over bell-cows with far better track records. He’s the #9 RB on my draft board and was the 11th back taken, meaning I think I got a small steal. This early I’m looking for three-down backs who can catch, and McKinnon fits that mold. Some appropriately question his durability; he's never had 160+ carries in a season. But he did have 259 in a dominant junior year at Georgia Southern. And this pick is more about upside: McKinnon oozes near-elite potential if he can net 300+ touches. I'm willing to risk greater downside for the chance of riding two top-6 RBs into the postseason. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Russell Wilson, Devonta Freeman, Mike Evans)
(3) Three QBs are off the board: Aaron Rodgers and my top two targets, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. I need a high-upside guy before the best ones are gone, and I can sense a coming run on QBs. So I snag uber boom-bust (higher-than-normal re-injury risk) Deshaun Watson. Carson Wentz might have been a smarter get (the draft took place before head coach Doug Pederson subtly suggested Wentz isn't a lock to be ready Week 1). But Watson’s mobility gives him an edge. Another factor is strength of schedule, with the Texans facing teams that were a combined 116-140 (.453) last season -- the worst in the NFL. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, A.J. Green)
(4) Turned out I made the right call snagging a QB. In the 14 picks since, 10 more quarterbacks are off the board. Now I find myself debating between picking another QB (Matt Ryan and Derek Carr are the best ones left) or my first wideout: Tyreek Hill or T.Y. Hilton. Both Hill and Hilton have top-10 potential, so I roll the dice and hope there’ll be some good QB options next round. Hill is still peaking, and he was the eighth highest scoring WR last season. But T.Y. was second in the league in first downs in 2016 and seventh in 2014, which in this league would make him an easy top-10 wideout if Andrew Luck is healthy. When I face these types of dilemmas, I look at who’s valued higher based on ADP / average rankings, meaning there's a higher probability the other guy will remain undrafted for longer. Hill's ADP is better, so I grab him and hope the lesser-appreciated T.Y. is still there in round 5. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Matt Ryan, T.Y. Hilton, Doug Baldwin)
(5) In any draft you have to read the flow. Don’t decide in advance who you’re picking. Assess your needs, your opponents’ needs, the best players available, the best bargains available, impending positional talent drop-offs, and so on. Five spots before my turn, Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan and Derek Carr -- three highly undervalued QBs -- remain on the board. I start going through the pros and cons of picking one of them over T.Y., and nearly convince myself before all three are snatched up. No stress. No frustration. I return to my original Plan A and grab T.Y. There are still 12 starting QBs available, ranging from Case Keenum (upside) to Sam Bradford (downside). I count how many opponents already have two QBs and figure there’ll be at least six remaining at my next pick. You should never have to reach for a positional player. If you follow the flow, the right one generally is available at the right time. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Kenyan Drake, Alex Collins, Amari Cooper)
Tomorrow I'll pick back up with round 6. In the meantime, how about sharing one of your draft success stories this summer. Who's your best steal?
Once again I’m competing in the Scott Fish Bowl, which brings together 700+ fantasy competitors in 12-team divisions. Last year my draft was, in some ways, abysmal. My first pick (#1 overall) was David Johnson. My fifth and sixth rounders were Dez Bryant and Eric Ebron (though Ebron finally got going late). Picks nine, 10, and 11 were Kelvin Benjamin, Coby Fleener, and Joe Williams. Yeah, exactly.
On the flip side, I drafted two top-7 QBs (Kirk Cousins and Big Ben), the 10th, 11th, and 12th best WRs in the seventh and eighth and 12th rounds (Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, and Marvin Jones), and identified enough diamonds in the rough (like Kenyan Drake and Marqise Lee in rounds 16 and 17) to be competitive. With 264 players selected on draft day and no trading permitted, there's not much flexibility to improve your roster.
But I managed to overcome the loss of David Johnson and the absence of any other starting RB for several weeks (leading to a 1-3 start) to piece together a second-place finish and postseason berth at 8-4. We can't get hung up on defeat. Value can be found everywhere -- even in leagues where the best free agent available is a team's #4 wideout or a third-string RB. The key is continual research and patience.
This season each roster once again has 22 players, and we have to start 11 of them: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 4 Flex (can flex 1 QB). It’s PPR, with slight bonuses for first downs. And because we can start two QBs, and since QBs score more than most other players, it's essentially a two-QB league.
As you can see, my decision making wasn't always sound, and my picks weren't always savvy. I claim to be good at this, and yet I make more mistakes each season than I can count. As with last season, my goal is to acquire as many elite and potentially elite players as possible. My online draft "grades" are always at or near the bottom. That never matters. What matters is having a championship-caliber team by midseason. Hopefully this batch of players gives me a good shot.
Something else I need to remind myself of: drafting doesn't have to be stressful or frustrating. We know at the outset that about 90% of all weekly startable players will be snatched up by opponents. So let that sink in: in most cases, it's impossible to assemble anything remotely resembling a Week 1 All-Pro team. And yet, if we take some well-timed, high-probability chances, we might be able to look back three months later and see that our draft turned out far better than initially realized. And that's often the mark of a championship team. (And it's also why draft "grades" are generally bunk.)
(Round 1) I pick fifth, and somehow Ezekiel Elliott falls to me. While he's not as strong in PPR (25th among RBs in receptions in his 15-game 2016 season, and only marginally better per-game last year), he's a first-down RB monster: #1 in 2016, and somehow #7 in 2017 despite missing six games. You want an offensive centerpiece with your first pick, and this offense clearly runs through Zeke. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Antonio Brown)
(2) Coming back down I grab Jerick McKinnon over bell-cows with far better track records. He’s the #9 RB on my draft board and was the 11th back taken, meaning I think I got a small steal. This early I’m looking for three-down backs who can catch, and McKinnon fits that mold. Some appropriately question his durability; he's never had 160+ carries in a season. But he did have 259 in a dominant junior year at Georgia Southern. And this pick is more about upside: McKinnon oozes near-elite potential if he can net 300+ touches. I'm willing to risk greater downside for the chance of riding two top-6 RBs into the postseason. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Russell Wilson, Devonta Freeman, Mike Evans)
(3) Three QBs are off the board: Aaron Rodgers and my top two targets, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. I need a high-upside guy before the best ones are gone, and I can sense a coming run on QBs. So I snag uber boom-bust (higher-than-normal re-injury risk) Deshaun Watson. Carson Wentz might have been a smarter get (the draft took place before head coach Doug Pederson subtly suggested Wentz isn't a lock to be ready Week 1). But Watson’s mobility gives him an edge. Another factor is strength of schedule, with the Texans facing teams that were a combined 116-140 (.453) last season -- the worst in the NFL. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, A.J. Green)
(4) Turned out I made the right call snagging a QB. In the 14 picks since, 10 more quarterbacks are off the board. Now I find myself debating between picking another QB (Matt Ryan and Derek Carr are the best ones left) or my first wideout: Tyreek Hill or T.Y. Hilton. Both Hill and Hilton have top-10 potential, so I roll the dice and hope there’ll be some good QB options next round. Hill is still peaking, and he was the eighth highest scoring WR last season. But T.Y. was second in the league in first downs in 2016 and seventh in 2014, which in this league would make him an easy top-10 wideout if Andrew Luck is healthy. When I face these types of dilemmas, I look at who’s valued higher based on ADP / average rankings, meaning there's a higher probability the other guy will remain undrafted for longer. Hill's ADP is better, so I grab him and hope the lesser-appreciated T.Y. is still there in round 5. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Matt Ryan, T.Y. Hilton, Doug Baldwin)
(5) In any draft you have to read the flow. Don’t decide in advance who you’re picking. Assess your needs, your opponents’ needs, the best players available, the best bargains available, impending positional talent drop-offs, and so on. Five spots before my turn, Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan and Derek Carr -- three highly undervalued QBs -- remain on the board. I start going through the pros and cons of picking one of them over T.Y., and nearly convince myself before all three are snatched up. No stress. No frustration. I return to my original Plan A and grab T.Y. There are still 12 starting QBs available, ranging from Case Keenum (upside) to Sam Bradford (downside). I count how many opponents already have two QBs and figure there’ll be at least six remaining at my next pick. You should never have to reach for a positional player. If you follow the flow, the right one generally is available at the right time. (Notable imminently drafted players I passed on: Kenyan Drake, Alex Collins, Amari Cooper)
Tomorrow I'll pick back up with round 6. In the meantime, how about sharing one of your draft success stories this summer. Who's your best steal?