Before continuing with draft prep, a quick announcement regarding the 4th Annual FF4W Survivor Pool: it's on.
Last year featured a record 141 participants, with Matt Neidhart taking home the prize. He joined Mike Hoff (2016) and Randy Scoggins (2015) in what has got to be the most elite winners circle in human history. By winning this 100% free contest, Matt earned shout-outs on social media and a yet-to-be-cashed-in 30-minute draft strategy phone convo.
This year I'm leaving Yahoo, because they cap each league at 100 people. So last year was unnecessarily confusing for folks, including me. So we have a new log-in page and a new layout:
To join the league, click here: officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx League ID: 20432 Password: mariota
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When assessing player values, I rarely place too much weight on their schedules. In 2017, the three teams with the "toughest" schedules (based on opposing teams' 2016 records) were the Broncos, Chiefs, and Chargers. KC and LA had a plethora of high-impact fantasy players, Denver's C.J. Anderson enjoyed a career year, and all three DSTs were relevant (the Chargers as a near-elite option, and the other two as capable spot-starters). Meanwhile, standout performers like Todd Gurley, Antonio Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins proved to be defense-proof; there's no good reason to pass on elite talent simply because a website warns about his difficult matchups.
That said, I do keep tabs on fantasy playoffs schedules while developing draft boards. (For consistency, I'm always referring to weeks 14-16 as the "playoffs.") It's a much easier apples-to-apples comparison (three games) vs. diving into the complexities of each team's Week 1-16 schedule.
For example, in the middle of last season I publicly pushed the Chiefs as a prime fantasy playoff performer, urging readers to buy low on the slumping Kareem Hunt and to snag the seemingly unstartable KC DST. The impending situation was fairly ideal: the Chiefs likely would be competing for a playoff spot, they had several high-performing options, and they had three straight home contests -- two of which were coming against the very beatable Oakland and Miami D's. With the exception if one bad Alex Smith game, Chiefs' players helped a lot of fantasy managers win their league.
This year Cowboys players get a nice fantasy playoff boost with a slate consisting of the Eagles / @Colts / Bucs. Philly could be tough, but the final two games -- especially Tampa Bay at home -- could be a dream option for patient owners who've stashed Dak Prescott. Yes, of course Zeke Elliott will get his numbers. But it's guys like Dak and (potentially) Allen Hurns or Cole Beasley or Michael Gallup who could shift from WR4/5 to WR2/3 when your games matter most.
The Panthers also looks good down the stretch: @Browns / Saints / Falcons. I love betting on the home team in late-season, intra-division contests. While Cam Newton is the #1 QB on my draft board, weeks 14-16 could bring out the best in currently questionable starters like C.J. Anderson and D.J. Moore. Meanwhile, if you can weather a tough Week 14 road game against Houston, the Colts will enjoy two winnable home games against the Cowboys and Giants to close out their fantasy season. Those with deep benches would be wise to stash a couple of Indy RBs for next-to-nothing; you might end up with an RB1 in weeks 15-16 if one of them eventually earns a bell-cow role.
On the flip side, the Dolphins' fantasy playoff schedule is pretty brutal: Patriots / @Vikings / Jaguars. Some Miami skill players will help managers reach the postseason, but quite possibly none of them will help folks win a title. This is one of several reasons why I'm avoiding Kenyan Drake at his current value. I'm also not pouncing on the Redskins on draft day; although they get a fantastic home matchup against the Giants Week 14, they'll close out the fantasy season on the road vs. the Jaguars and the underrated Titans. A not-as-it-seems muddled backfield, a crowded receiving corps, an unreliable starting TE, and a hugely overrated QB already make me question Washington players' fantasy values. Their Week 15/16 contests simply cement my concerns.
It's a long season. Anything can happen. Some D's come out of nowhere to dominate, while others fall well short of expectations. But by playing the percentages on fantasy playoff schedules, we can be a little more calculating on the risks and rewards of dozens of draftable players.
Last year featured a record 141 participants, with Matt Neidhart taking home the prize. He joined Mike Hoff (2016) and Randy Scoggins (2015) in what has got to be the most elite winners circle in human history. By winning this 100% free contest, Matt earned shout-outs on social media and a yet-to-be-cashed-in 30-minute draft strategy phone convo.
This year I'm leaving Yahoo, because they cap each league at 100 people. So last year was unnecessarily confusing for folks, including me. So we have a new log-in page and a new layout:
To join the league, click here: officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx League ID: 20432 Password: mariota
---
When assessing player values, I rarely place too much weight on their schedules. In 2017, the three teams with the "toughest" schedules (based on opposing teams' 2016 records) were the Broncos, Chiefs, and Chargers. KC and LA had a plethora of high-impact fantasy players, Denver's C.J. Anderson enjoyed a career year, and all three DSTs were relevant (the Chargers as a near-elite option, and the other two as capable spot-starters). Meanwhile, standout performers like Todd Gurley, Antonio Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins proved to be defense-proof; there's no good reason to pass on elite talent simply because a website warns about his difficult matchups.
That said, I do keep tabs on fantasy playoffs schedules while developing draft boards. (For consistency, I'm always referring to weeks 14-16 as the "playoffs.") It's a much easier apples-to-apples comparison (three games) vs. diving into the complexities of each team's Week 1-16 schedule.
For example, in the middle of last season I publicly pushed the Chiefs as a prime fantasy playoff performer, urging readers to buy low on the slumping Kareem Hunt and to snag the seemingly unstartable KC DST. The impending situation was fairly ideal: the Chiefs likely would be competing for a playoff spot, they had several high-performing options, and they had three straight home contests -- two of which were coming against the very beatable Oakland and Miami D's. With the exception if one bad Alex Smith game, Chiefs' players helped a lot of fantasy managers win their league.
This year Cowboys players get a nice fantasy playoff boost with a slate consisting of the Eagles / @Colts / Bucs. Philly could be tough, but the final two games -- especially Tampa Bay at home -- could be a dream option for patient owners who've stashed Dak Prescott. Yes, of course Zeke Elliott will get his numbers. But it's guys like Dak and (potentially) Allen Hurns or Cole Beasley or Michael Gallup who could shift from WR4/5 to WR2/3 when your games matter most.
The Panthers also looks good down the stretch: @Browns / Saints / Falcons. I love betting on the home team in late-season, intra-division contests. While Cam Newton is the #1 QB on my draft board, weeks 14-16 could bring out the best in currently questionable starters like C.J. Anderson and D.J. Moore. Meanwhile, if you can weather a tough Week 14 road game against Houston, the Colts will enjoy two winnable home games against the Cowboys and Giants to close out their fantasy season. Those with deep benches would be wise to stash a couple of Indy RBs for next-to-nothing; you might end up with an RB1 in weeks 15-16 if one of them eventually earns a bell-cow role.
On the flip side, the Dolphins' fantasy playoff schedule is pretty brutal: Patriots / @Vikings / Jaguars. Some Miami skill players will help managers reach the postseason, but quite possibly none of them will help folks win a title. This is one of several reasons why I'm avoiding Kenyan Drake at his current value. I'm also not pouncing on the Redskins on draft day; although they get a fantastic home matchup against the Giants Week 14, they'll close out the fantasy season on the road vs. the Jaguars and the underrated Titans. A not-as-it-seems muddled backfield, a crowded receiving corps, an unreliable starting TE, and a hugely overrated QB already make me question Washington players' fantasy values. Their Week 15/16 contests simply cement my concerns.
It's a long season. Anything can happen. Some D's come out of nowhere to dominate, while others fall well short of expectations. But by playing the percentages on fantasy playoff schedules, we can be a little more calculating on the risks and rewards of dozens of draftable players.