Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Carson Wentz dominate again?
2. Can Jay Ajayi be the bell-cow?
3. Is Alshon Jeffery a weekly starter?
4. Is Nelson Agholor a WR3+?
5. Will Zach Ertz be a top-3 TE?
Philly put up 30+ points 11 times in 2017 after clearing that mark only once the previous season. To put that in perspective, the seemingly unstoppable 18-1 Patriots of 2007 scored 30+ 13 times. Last year's Eagles were #1 in passing TDs, #3 in rushing yards and points per game, and #4 in first downs and forced turnovers. And when you look up and down their roster, it's fair to wonder whether they'll be even better this year. It starts with third-year pre-phenom Carson Wentz, who took one of the biggest second-year leaps of any NFL quarterback in history. Knocked out for the year in Week 14, Wentz was headed toward a 4,000/40 regular season -- something only eight other QBs have done. His QB-6 ADP makes him a slight bargain. Remember, he scored the fifth most QB fantasy points last season despite missing a little over three games, and he was on pace to edge out Russell Wilson for #1 honors. Expected to be fully healthy by Week 1, Wentz is poised for another near-elite campaign.
Jay Ajayi is one of the toughest-to-read top-30 fantasy RBs. On the one hand, with LeGarrette Blount gone, he's the only Eagle with bellcow-level talent, and he enjoyed a blistering 5.8 YPC after his midseason trade to Philadelphia. On the other hand, how committed is this team to the run? Only five of the Eagles' 14 TDs (36%) inside the 4-yard line came on the ground. By comparison, the other three final-four playoff teams were far more likely to run inside the 4-yard line: 10 of the Vikings' 19 (53%), 12 of the Patriots' 20 TDs (60%), and 11 of the Jaguars' 15 (73%). While I can't predict how Ajayi will be utilized this year, I'm concerned he'll earn fewer scoring opportunities than most lead backs, and therefore is a risk at his RB-18 ADP. Behind him, Corey Clement and Darren Sproles will each average around 5-8 touches per contest, though with Ajayi starting and Sproles closer to 40 years old than 30, neither complementary back has enough stand-alone value to be draftable in most leagues.
Alshon Jeffery managed back-end WR2 production despite posting his worst per-game numbers since his 2012 rookie year. His nine touchdowns were the key. I like him okay at his WR-21 ADP, but I wouldn't reach for him. On the other side of the ball, Nelson Agholor broke through in 2017 and should beat his WR-44 ADP, while off-season signee Mike Wallace (WR-91) will be a nice upgrade over Torrey Smith, making the veteran a potential WR5 if he earns the #3 role. Second-year wideout Mack Hollins also has WR5 potential if he earns regular playing time, though we won't know how this all shakes out until next month.
Zach Ertz has been crazy-consistent the past three seasons: 74-78 catches for 816-853 yards. The biggest difference last year was how frequently he found the end zone (eight times) versus six combined scores in 2015 and 2016. And that difference propelled him to near-elite status after two years as a bottom-half TE1. With Wentz at QB, Ertz will continue to be a key red-zone target, where his last 12 TDs have originated. On a side note, none of Ertz's 21 NFL TDs have come in the fourth quarter. That bizarre streak surely will end in 2018, as the Eagles' franchise TE has become a cornerstone of one of the NFL's top offenses.