Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Tom Brady still an elite fantasy QB?
2. Can Sony Michel be the bell-cow?
3. Are James White and Rex Burkhead draftable?
4. Is Chris Hogan a top-25 WR?
5. With Julian Edelman suspended, who will step up as the #2 receiver Week 1?
In many ways, it remains downright shocking that the Patriots fell in Super Bowl LII. Tom Brady's 505 yards and three scores should have been enough to vanquish the Carson Wentz-less Eagles. But Philly capitalized against a D that had yielded the third most passing yards in the NFL. And after an offseason of surprisingly public turmoil, New England enters the 2018 season with too many question marks. Of course, it starts with Brady: his relationship with Bill Belichick, the losses of #1 wideout Brandin Cooks and situationally useful receiver Danny Amendola, the departure of RB1/2 receiving specialist Dion Lewis, questions over whether Gronk will stay -- and stay healthy, Julian Edelman's suspension, and the hodge-podge addition of cast-off receivers vying for a second life playing alongside the most legendary QB in history. If anyone can thrive in such a chaotic situation, it's Brady. Then again, the almost 41-year-old should be at a point in his career when he's riding the waves, not fighting against them. He's slightly overvalued at his QB-4 ADP, meaning I'd much rather ride QB-6 Cam Newton and at least four other QBs this year.
Rookie Sony Michel poses an interesting dilemma. On the one hand, he's primed for a lead-back role. On the other hand, did the Patriots really need him? As good a runner as he is, Michel is useless in the passing game and fumbled 12 times in college -- once every 55 touches. Belichick is particularly intolerant of fumbling, meaning Michel has to control the ball flawlessly to match or exceed his RB-23 ADP. I've got the rookie down at #34. Elsewhere, some of you wisely foresaw early last summer that Mike Gillislee was overrated and Rex Burkhead was underrated. Unfortunately, I caught on too late. These days, Gillislee is fighting for a roster spot, while Burkhead has carved out a goal-line and part-time passing-down role that will keep him in the RB4/RB5 conversation. However, I wouldn't grab Burkhead near his RB-37 ADP price tag, as his value is entirely situational (i.e. very TD-dependent). On my draft board, James White edges out Burkhead with an RB-44 ranking -- tangibly better than White's ADP.
Brady is down to one reliable wideout to start the season: Chris Hogan. The 29-year-old was 10th in WR fantasy points last year before a midseason shoulder injury derailed him. His WR-31 ADP is silly. 70+ experts on average rank him 34th, with about 25% of them listing him 40th or worse. Again, craziness. Hogan will be a top-25 WR and has top-15 upside if Brady doesn't regress. Meanwhile, Julian Edelman hasn't played in over 18 months, and it'll be another 10 weeks or so before he takes the field. Last summer's season-ending injury and this summer's four-game suspension ruling has put Brady's long-time favorite WR target on dangerous footing. I don't remotely like his WR-29 ADP. The other wideouts competing for receptions include Malcolm Mitchell, who's recovering from a knee injury, former Vikings first-round bust Cordarrelle Patterson, former Colts first-round bust Phillip Dorsett, former capable receiver Jordan Matthews, and the historically sporadically productive Kenny Britt. Matthews (WR-68 ADP) and Mitchell (WR-105) are the guys I'm watching most closely. One of them likely will be a WR3/4 to start the year. There's huge bargain potential here, at least until Edelman's return muddies things a bit.
The Patriots don't trust Gronk's long-term viability, but they also don't want to lose him, particularly with so many question marks at wideout. You know what you're getting when you draft him early: a top-2 TE who's a higher-than-normal injury risk. Expect gaudy numbers to start the year. Then hold your breath the rest of the season.