Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Drew Brees a top 6 QB?
2. Will Mark Ingram return to form after his suspension?
3. Will any other RB not named Alvin Kamara have a fantasy impact?
4. Who will be the #2 fantasy wideout?
5. Is any TE worth drafting?
Heading into 2017, the previous time Drew Brees wasn’t a top-6 fantasy QB was 2005, his final season with the Chargers. Last year that 11-year streak ended, as he threw for his fewest yards per game (271) since 2005 and fewest TDs (23) since 2003. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, only five (22%) of his TDs started outside the opposing 20-yard line, well below his pre-2017 career total of 32% (150 out of 465). The danger with assuming this 39-year-old will reclaim his dominance -- or even near-dominance -- is the same danger with assuming the 39-year-old Peyton Manning circa 2015 would reclaim his. At some point, declines are irreversible. Whether Brees crashes like Peyton or continues his gradual slide is irrelevant; for our purposes, he's overrated at his QB-7 ADP and won't finish in the top 10. In fact, only two of 80+ experts rank him as low as -- or lower than -- I do (12th).
Here are some numbers I’ve dug up that go beyond the obvious stats. He threw more passes behind the line of scrimmage last year (137) than in any year in the past decade. He averaged 119 per season since 2007. Dump-offs to Alvin Kamara partially carried him last season, as 32 of Kamara's 36 receptions for 10+ yards came on short passes, accounting for 616 yards and five touchdowns. There's a chance that's replicable this year, but I'd bet against it. And more pointedly, Brees threw fewer passes beyond 10 yards (123) than in any year since his 11-game 2003 season. For context, he's averaged 196 per season since 2007. It’s not for lack of offensive talent. It’s just that Brees operates more conservatively. The Saints have figured out how to win (11-5 last season and a run at the conference title) without leaning as heavily as in past years on their future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. That will become even more apparent in 2018.
Speaking of Kamara, while likely not bell-cow material, the second-year pro should replicate last year's RB1 production. That said, we'll see a little regression based on defensive adjustments. His RB-5 ADP is a bit aggressive. As for Mark Ingram, it took him six seasons to assemble the type of fantasy production managers had long hoped for, finishing as the #8 RB in 2016 and then #6 last year. Now facing a four-game suspension, and with free agency looming after this season, Ingram is a dangerous selection at his RB-23 ADP. Most experts rank him as an RB2. Also keep in mind he's eligible to play only once before Week 7 (the Saints have a Week 6 bye), and a lot can happen by then. Jonathan Williams, Trey Edmunds, and/or rookie Boston Scott could carve out complementary roles behind Kamara starting Week 1. As talented as Ingram is, if another guy shows well, Ingram's usage could be hampered. The former RB1 is the #36 RB on my draft board because of risk, which surely will produce some "What the . . .?" reactions, but I'm standing by it.
Everything about New Orleans' receiving corps is predicated on my concerns with Brees. So while Michael Thomas will be fine (though his WR-5 ADP is too ambitious; he's #10 on my board), the remaining options are more dicey than in past years. Ted Ginn is no lock to win the #2 job, and even if he does, he might not keep it. He'll begin the preseason as a WR5 with room to fall if others step up. One of the "others" is the newly acquired Cameron Meredith, who missed all of last season with ACL and MCL injuries. He proved he belonged in 2016 with a 66/888/4 line, a majority of which came off the arm of QB Matt Barkley. If Meredith gets healthy and starts, he'll immediately jump into the WR4+ conversation. Meanwhile, rookie Tre'Quan Smith could leapfrog both guys if he shows extraordinarily well in camp. The big takeaway here is that there's room for a WR3/4 playing alongside the low-end WR1 Thomas, but there's no guarantee any secondary option will be consistent enough to help your team.
The Coby Fleener Experiment is mercifully over, and I accept blame for believing he'd be draftable last summer. It's also fair to say no remaining option is draftable, as Ben Watson and Josh Hill will battle it out for mid- or low-range TE2 honors.