Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Deshaun Watson show 2016 wasn’t a fluke?
2. Will Lamar Miller score more fantasy points than D’Onta Foreman?
3. Is Will Fuller a regular fantasy starter?
4. Will any WR besides Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins make a fantasy impact?
5. Is any TE worth drafting?
Can anyone remember why QB Tom Savage started 2017’s opening contest? #12 overall pick Deshaun Watson eventually replaced him in that game, and then went on to dominate the NFL ‘til a midseason ACL injury brought his heralded rookie campaign to a close. How good was Watson? In five starts beginning in Week 3, he compiled a 1,472/19/7 line with 188 rushing yards and an absurd 9.3 passing yards per throw. For context, Aaron Rodgers and Big Ben led the NFL with a 7.9 mark. And three of his five opponents were playoff teams, while a fourth was no cakewalk (Seattle on the road). The 22-year-old Watson has #1 fantasy player potential . . . if healthy. If you can stomach the risk of drafting an elite-talent QB coming off a serious knee injury, his upside makes him a top-30 overall pick.
The Dolphins knew what they were doing when they seemingly inexplicably limited Lamar Miller’s touches from 2013 to 2015. The team’s featured back rarely earned more than 18 carries in a game despite a YPC in the mid-to-high 4’s. Then, after the Texans handed him a four-year, $26 million contract with $14 million guaranteed, the “over-utilized” Miller has fared worse. Oh, he’s still posting mid-range RB2 numbers. But for an RB who was 11th in the league in touches last year, Miller was a bust. Even his RB-25 ADP is ambitious, as it assumes D’Onta Foreman (RB-43) will be largely irrelevant. While Foreman remains on the mend from a Week 11 Achilles’ injury, he’s the value pick in this backfield and is a top-5 RB handcuff. Miller, on the other hand, likely will descend into a timeshare or worse once Foreman gets the green light.
After scuffling in 2016 due to horrific QB play, DeAndre Hopkins ripped up defenses in 2017 no matter who was throwing to him: Watson, Savage, and even T.J. Yates (with whom Hopkins racked up a 19/294/4 line in three games). The 26-year-old might now be the most QB-proof wideout in the league and is primed to knock Antonio Brown out of the #1 spot. You heard that right: Hopkins is my #1 fantasy WR, and only seven of 80+ experts agree. Meanwhile, Will Fuller arguably is one of the most dangerous #2 receivers despite compiling a pedestrian 28/423/7 line last year. Remember, he missed six games, and in four magical contests playing alongside Watson and Hopkins, Fuller strung together seven TDs. Sustainable over a 16-game season? Of course not. But the 2016 first-rounder is fairly priced at his WR-27 ADP and could push WR2 territory if everything breaks right. With the #3 job going to a middling-at-best talent like Bruce Ellington or Braxton Miller, or to more promising rookie Keke Coutee, Hopkins and Fuller will eat up nearly all of the aerial offense. Think Denver’s situation with the offense-monopolizing Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, except more talented and with a higher-upside QB.
Houston’s TE situation is not fantasy friendly. Ryan Griffin and Stephen Anderson could put up adequate numbers if used solo, though a timeshare is more likely. Rookie Jordan Akins will try to move up the depth chart this summer, though he could have a ways to go to become “the guy.” If there is a clear-cut starter, he’ll be a top-20 option with TD-dependent upside.