Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Russell Wilson a top-3 QB?
2. Will Rashaad Penny be an RB2+?
3. Will any other RB have a fantasy impact?
4. Is Tyler Lockett draftable?
5. Can Brandon Marshall be fantasy relevant?
Seattle missed the playoffs last season for the first time in Russell Wilson’s six-year career. It had nothing to do with him. After a slow start to the season, Wilson was lights-out and ran away with the #1 fantasy QB title, scoring 16% more points than his nearest competitor (Cam Newton). His fantasy dominance and the franchise’s shrinking fortunes are intertwined. Their defense yielded 332 points -- the most since 2010 and only 13th best in the league -- after being #1 in this category from 2012 to 2015 (and #3 in 2016). In fact, they’ve surrendered more points each year since 2013, while Wilson’s pass attempts have increased each year since 2012. That and a sub-par run game (more on that in a moment) forced Wilson to do more. With no signs of a resurgent Seattle D, expect another high-volume season for Wilson, placing him at #2 on my board.
Speaking of the Seahawks' run game, they've averaged 4.0 YPC and 3.9 YPC the past two seasons while cycling through injured and underperforming RBs. Inexplicably, only one Seahawk RB ran the ball in for a score last year, and it happened only once. That's right: J.D. McKissic's 30-yard scamper in Week 4 was Seattle's lone RB rushing TD of 2017. The hope is that 2018 first-rounder Rashaad Penny can anchor a backfield seeking a return to its recent glory days. His RB-19 ADP makes sense if he logs 200-225 touches. His coaching staff has publicly viewed him as a three-down back. The problem is that he’s not an exceptional blocker or pass-catcher, and with Wilson expected to carry the ball his usual 90-110 times, there’s still a hole to fill. I'd let someone else draft the rookie at his price point. C.J. Prosise (RB-87 ADP) is one option to complement the running game, but he remains on the roster bubble. McKissic (RB-108) is more likely to be that guy, so I’d keep a close eye on him as a potential 4-6 touch RB5/6. And then there’s Chris Carson, whose promising rookie campaign was cut short in Week 4, and now has a lot of ground to cover with Penny nearly entrenched as the 1A option. Carson broke a higher percentage of tackles last year (37.5%) than any other RB, WR, or TE with 50+ touches. That’s a remarkable stat, and it hits on what makes Carson a potentially special talent if he gets another opportunity. He’s a must-draft in very deep leagues at his current RB-52 ADP and should enter the season as a top-10 RB handcuff.
Among the wideouts, Doug Baldwin is the only known quantity. He’s been a top-13 fantasy WR for three straight years. Enough said. Tyler Lockett (WR-67 ADP) is the wild card: a history of sporadic production despite gobs of alleged potential. He was the 56th highest scoring fantasy WR in 2017 and should build on that, making him a tangible bargain in a thin receiving corps. That thinness will be tested with the arrival of Brandon Marshall (WR-92). Does he have anything left in the tank? If the 12-year veteran somehow regains even his 2016 form (59/788/3 in 15 games), he’ll probably leapfrog the historically less-targeted Lockett. Marshall is the prototypical, nothing-to-lose reclamation project: not worth a fantasy roster spot unless he’s named a starter. I'm not yet sold. Meanwhile, Jaron Brown is another new face, coming over from Arizona after five sparsely used seasons. He has big-play potential (five of his nine career TDs have come from 25+ yards out) and should easily outpace his WR-126 ADP. But he’d need to start opposite Baldwin to be a regular fantasy contributor.
With Jimmy Graham and Luke Wilson departing, Seattle grabbed veteran TE Ed Dickson, who’s coming off his best season since 2011. Of course, even Dickson’s pedestrian 30/437/1 line in 12 starts was due to Greg Olsen getting hurt and Cam Newton having virtually no better receivers (aside from Devin Funchess) to throw to. Dickson is merely a placeholder in advance of the Seahawks’ 2019 draft -- that is, unless Nick Vannett earns the starting nod. Entering his third season, Vannett will sharply outperform his TE-48 ADP if he's named the starter.