Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Pat Mahomes a QB1?
2. Who will back up Kareem Hunt?
3. Will Tyreek Hill be a top-10 WR?
4. Is Sammy Watkins draftable?
5. Will Travis Kelce once again be the #1 fantasy TE?
If Alex Smith could do it, so can Pat Mahomes. Smith’s career year at age 33 was no fluke; he was in a fantastic situation playing alongside an elite RB1, a WR1, and an elite TE1. That same nucleus awaits Mahomes, who was drafted 10th overall in 2017 and who conceivably could become the face of the Chiefs for a decade to come. Fantasy managers in deep-bench dynasty leagues should lunge for him at his QB-15 ADP. However, those in re-draft leagues should not bank on QB1 production in his first season as a starter.
My concerns about Spencer Ware last summer -- and my seemingly premature hyping of Kareem Hunt -- became moot when Ware tore up his knee in August, catapulting Hunt to the bell-cow role he always deserved. This summer Hunt has one of the league’s longest leashes as a high-usage, multi-dimensional fantasy star. Meanwhile, the team has added Damien Williams and Kerwynn Williams to its legion of backups. Factoring in Charcandrick West, as well, Ware offers the most handcuff appeal, but only if he gets healthy. Otherwise, West and D. Williams will compete for a job they might end up splitting anyway if Hunt goes down. If you’re a fan of handcuffs, root for Ware (RB-65 ADP) to recover and serve a valuable role on fantasy managers’ benches.
Tyreek Hill is a big-play machine. All seven of last year’s TDs -- and 12 of his last 14 overall -- were plays of 30 yards or more. He was the eighth highest scoring fantasy WR despite earning fewer targets (105) than anyone else in the top 18. I like him as a back-end WR1, a little below his WR-10 ADP. The newly acquired Sammy Watkins is the wild card. The Chiefs gave him $30 million guaranteed in March, which shows how desperate they were for an upgrade opposite Hill. The 25-year-old still has loads of talent and is primed to build on last season’s 39/593/8 output. His WR-31 ADP is a little aggressive based on his track record, but not entirely unreasonable, and he’ll be an unquestionable every-week fantasy starter if Hill or Travis Kelce misses time. Elsewhere, Demarcus Robinson and Chris Conley will compete for relevance as the #5 offensive option on a top-heavy team.
Last summer I pushed back on the conventional wisdom that Gronk should be the first TE off the board, instead viewing Travis Kelce not only as the #1 fantasy TE, but also as undervalued at his overall 35 ADP: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/08/te-draft-strategy.html. Kelce ended up being the #1 TE last season and 19th among all flex players. This summer the fantasy universe somehow continues to favor Gronk, with 61 out of 70 experts ranking him #1. However, I’m once again pushing Kelce as the #1 fantasy TE.