Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Aaron Rodgers be a top-2 QB?
2. Which RB will score the most fantasy points?
3. Is Davante Adams a WR1?
4. Is Randall Cobb a WR3/4?
5. Is Jimmy Graham a locked-in TE1?
Last summer I made a hard case for why Aaron Rodgers was a safe, elite draft pick. Then he had to get hurt early in Week 6 and miss all but one of Green Bay’s remaining games. Through five games the 33-year-old was on pace for a personal-best 403 completions, 4,374 yards, 42 TDs, and 10 INTs. This is a guy who’d been a top-3 fantasy QB in eight of his previous nine seasons, including twice while playing only 15 games. In his only other miss -- 2009 -- he was headed toward another top-3 finish before getting knocked out midseason. That said, this year presents a little more risk even when he's on the field. Even with the addition of Jimmy Graham, the loss of Jordy Nelson and too much reliance on Randall Cobb, in addition to a very difficult schedule (toughest in the NFL based on opponents' 2017 win-loss records) makes him a top 4-6 option, not a safe top-3. That's right: the QB-1 ADP Rodgers -- a guy who zero out of 80+ experts rank outside the top-2 -- will not be a top-3 option.
We’ve seen several coin-flip depth chart battles so far -- competitions that this early in the summer are simply too close to call. And even when we reach Week 1, some will remain unresolved. Green Bay’s backfield fits that description: three young guys capable of busting out, with the hot hand dictating who’s earning more touches week to week. That was certainly the case last year when Ty Montgomery, Aaron Jones, and Jamaal Williams took turns rewarding forward-thinking fantasy managers. For a while this summer Jones was going first in drafts, followed closely by Williams and Montgomery. Then Jones was hit with a two-game suspension, giving the other two -- particularly Williams -- a slight chance at wresting control of the #1 spot. Each has strengths and weaknesses. Jones looked most impressive last season, but he also missed time with a knee injury and will start the season in the hole. Williams ran poorly (3.6 YPC), but showed every-down-back durability and versatility in the passing game. And Montgomery, a former wideout, is a jack-of-all-trades option who hasn’t yet proven to be capable of handling heavy weekly loads. There’s no obvious answer here. But I publicly and adamantly warned last preseason that Montgomery (RB-18 ADP) would be a bust (www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/08/contrarian-prediction-15-ty-montgomery.html), and I still maintain that his upside is lower than Jones’s and Williams’s. So take that into account when weighing your options.
Jordy Nelson might be gone, but Davante Adams is rising. A month ago I was prepared to call him an absolute steal his WR-18 ADP. Today, even as he's climbed to #8, I'm still calling him a slight bargain and eyeing at least a 90/1,100/8 season. Meanwhile, Randall Cobb is playing for a contract. The soon-to-be free agent has been pedestrian the past three years after a monster 2014 campaign. Interestingly, he was the 35th-highest-scoring fantasy WR last season, and his WR-39 ADP makes sense . . . when healthy. He's missed four games the past two years and has played hurt too often during that stretch. Draft him as a WR4 with occasional upside, and be prepared to bench him a few times with a pulled hamstring or sprained wrist. And the potential #3 receiver, Geronimo Allison (WR-70 ADP), has been climbing up draft boards this summer and offers nothing-to-lose upside if he wins the job. His biggest drawback is shaky hands: three drops on 39 targets last year and an 11% drop rate in his final college season. Three rookies are also fighting for that #3 spot: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, J'Mon Moore, and Equanimeous St. Brown. If none of them step up, we might see the postseason-hungry Packers try to acquire a better #3 midseason. But I think someone will rise to the moment, and he’ll merit an instant deep-league bench spot when he does.
Jimmy Graham knows what he’s doing. He’ll soon be one of a handful of NFL players who can say they’ve caught balls thrown by three top-flight QBs. Now 31 and a reduced version of his prime self, Graham nevertheless remains a TE1 by virtue of how many red-zone opportunities Rodgers & company manufacture. Last year six of Graham's 10 scores came inside the four-yard line. By contrast, in his first four seasons, only nine of his 41 scores started inside the four. Graham’s game has evolved as his versatility has waned, and he’s in a perfect spot to capitalize on Rodgers’ short-yardage red-zone looks. Draft him with confidence as a mid-range TE1 who could help you win a title if he reaches double-digit TDs for a second straight year.