Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Blake Bortles a top 16 QB?
2. Who will be the RB handcuff?
3. Which WR will be Bortles’ #1 target?
4. Will Donte Moncrief be fantasy relevant?
5. Is Austin Seferian-Jenkins draftable?
As with every preseason, last summer I made a bunch of contrarian predictions that went against nearly all or all of the fantasy universe. 53% were completely right, 12% were largely right, and 35% were flat-out wrong. One of my biggest hits was with Blake Bortles, who owned a QB-22 ADP last summer, when many believed he’d be benched as early as September. I made the case on this site that he’d be fantasy relevant, and he rewarded contrarians with the 13th most QB fantasy points. Make no mistake: Bortles has proven to be less than what Jacksonville anticipated when they drafted him third overall in 2014, and he's certainly not a reliable weekly option. But Bortles’ current QB-27 ADP -- this notion that he’s headed for a far worse season than last year’s 3,687/23/13 output -- is ridiculous. He’s a low-end QB2 at worst, and I might bump him up more based on how the rest of the summer shakes out.
On the flip side, Leonard Fournette proved me wrong in 2017. His foot injury concerned me, and the presence of T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory meant (I thought) the Jags wouldn’t overwork their rookie. Well, Fournette did show some fragility, and his sub-par efficiency (3.9 YPC) was a small concern. But the Jags had no concerns running the hell out of him: 304 touches in 13 games for 1,342 total yards and 10 TDs, including nine on the ground. Interestingly, seven of those nine came inside the five-yard line, while four were pounded in from the one. He converted six-of-nine TD chances inside the three-yard line. That’s the kind of player you want in fantasy. As a rising centerpiece of this offense, a healthy Fournette is a lock to once again be a top 6-10 RB. Just keep in mind he’s shown to be more injury-prone than most starting RBs. Handcuff duties will fall to the somewhat capable T.J. Yeldon (RB-69 ADP) or the potentially more talented Corey Grant (RB-84). Obviously keep both on your radar if you draft Fournette.
In an ideal situation, Marqise Lee would be a 1,000/7 guy. He’s better than his numbers suggest, and also is capped by his situation in Jacksonville. Last summer I pushed him hard despite his egregiously low WR-69 ADP, and he rewarded fantasy managers with WR3/4 production while healthy. Yet even Allen Robinson’s absence couldn’t propel him to the next level. And this season he’ll face stiffer competition. He's priced a little aggressively at his WR-47 ADP, ahead of teammates Dede Westbrook (WR-65) and Keelan Cole (WR-68). Last year Westbrook stepped up soon after his Week 11 career debut, while Cole gradually became Bortles’ primary weapon, culminating in a dominant fantasy playoffs. All three have clear paths to WR3/4 production, which unfortunately caps all of their upsides. But one thing is clear: Lee is the riskiest pick based on value. Another realistic hiccup could come from recent signee Donte Moncrief (WR-79), whose injuries limited him the past two seasons in Indy, but who has WR3/4 potential if he somehow earns a starting nod.
Last October it looked like Austin Seferian-Jenkins had finally turned a corner. A trendy fantasy target since Tampa Bay drafted him early in the second round in 2014, ASJ stumbled through three partial NFL seasons before putting it all together with QB Josh McCown early last fall: a 26/173/3 line through his first five games. The rest of the season? 24/184/0. Today he’s priced generously with a TE-16 ADP. Some managers will reach for him in 12-team leagues. I wouldn’t take the bait.