Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Jimmy Garoppolo a QB1?
2. Is Jerick McKinnon an RB1?
3. Will the Niners field a top 30 WR?
4. Can the #3 wideout be fantasy relevant?
5. Will George Kittle be a top 14 TE?
It took divine intervention and (according to recent reports) some Patriot management turmoil for the Niners to secure potential franchise QB Jimmy Garoppolo in exchange for a second-round pick. Throwing to one of the league’s worst receiving corps, Garoppolo did the unthinkable, leading a 1-10 squad to five wins in five starts, including against three playoff-bound teams. When extended over 16 contests, his per-game fantasy production would have placed him ninth among all QBs. And so, magically (i.e. with minimal expert scrutiny), that happens to be his preseason QB ADP. While there’s no doubt he’s the real deal, is he really a top 10 guy? I’m not buying it. Signed this offseason to the largest per-season contract in NFL history, Garoppolo will lose some luster in 2018, especially without a big-name receiver upgrade. He's barely a QB2 on my draft board -- that's right, nowhere close to his ADP, and worse than every expert ranking.
I can’t wait to see a full season of Jerick McKinnon. Longtime FF4W readers might remember I’ve been pushing him consistently since he was Adrian Peterson’s backup. His RB-14 ADP ignores his bell-cow status. His backup, Matt Breida, was solid last year in part-time action, but he's no threat to cut into Jerick's workhorse role. McKinnon is the complete package, with a combined 94 receptions the past two seasons that were essentially two half-seasons. Don't be surprised if he earns 300-350 touches and finishes in the top 6. For now he's #9 on my board.
Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin once again will anchor the Niners’ aerial attack. Garcon missed a chunk of last season with a neck injury and will turn 32 in August. “Great” Garcon -- circa 2013 -- is way back in the rear-view mirror. He's priced right at a WR-34 ADP. Goodwin’s WR-41 ADP is a bit more appealing. I pushed him on this page about a half-dozen times last year, and I like him outperforming Garcon in 2018. Elsewhere, Trent Taylor and 2018 second-rounder Dante Pettis probably will compete for the #3 job, with Pettis being the name to track given his higher upside. Still, this offense will need to kick into another gear for a #3 wideout to earn even semi-consistent fantasy love. And neither starter will be an every-week contributor on fantasy teams.
I want to believe George Kittle will take another step forward. Last year’s #19 fantasy TE finished strong with 36 points in his final three games. Assuming Garrett Celek continues to get some run -- and some red-zone love, with three of his four 2017 scores coming inside the six-yard line -- Kittle has a top 8-14 window. I like him in the 8-10 range, compared to a TE-12 ADP.