Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Philip Rivers a QB1?
2. Is Melvin Gordon a top 8 RB?
3. Can Austin Ekeler or Justin Jackson cut into Gordon’s production?
4. Is Keenan Allen an elite WR?
5. Who will be Rivers’ #2 receiving target?
New city, similar result: In their first season in Los Angeles, the Chargers finished 9-7 for the fourth time this decade. They should have been better with a defense that yielded the franchise’s fewest points in 25 years. But they were 1-4 in games decided by three points or less, and in each of their seven defeats they trailed by seven points or less at some point in the fourth quarter. In other words, every game was winnable. Most of the offense will return for another season. Is this the year they put it all together?
As with many teams, the offense still runs through its veteran QB. Now 36 years old and signed through next year, Philip Rivers is ninth all-time in NFL passing yards, 12th in attempts, seventh in completions, and sixth in passing TDs. He’s played every game of the past 12 seasons. For 10 straights years he’s tossed 26+ touchdowns, and in nine of those he’s cleared 4,000 passing yards. In those same nine of 10 seasons he’s scored between 255 and 287 fantasy points. That level of consistency is perhaps unprecedented. Perennially undervalued in July and August, Rivers is a great get at his QB-16 ADP.
Multiple times last year I warned that Melvin Gordon’s hype didn’t match his production: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/11/most-notable-fantasy-impacts-of-week-10.html. As a young, high-usage, former first rounder in a terrific offense, Gordon has enjoyed a perfect storm of latitude. In other words, the Chargers won't diminish his role as long as he’s racking up yards and touchdowns. Last year he was the fifth highest scoring fantasy RB on 1,581 total yards and 12 scores. What’s not to like? Well, L.A. has been at or near the bottom in team YPC since Gordon entered the league, primarily because the three-year pro has never topped 3.9 YPC. While running efficiency isn’t everything, it matters, particularly when a complementary back like Austin Ekeler posts 5.5 YPC . Keep a close eye on Ekeler (RB-64 ADP) and cheap rookie Justin Jackson (RB-80). Conventional wisdom says Gordon’s an RB1 lock; his RB ADP is 8 and only three of 70+ experts rank him outside the top 10 (and no one has him worse than 12th). Gordon's 13th on my board; his bell-cow leash is shorter than people realize.
Keenan Allen enjoyed his first 16-game season and reminded us what he’s capable of. Still in his pre-prime at 26 years old, last year’s #3 fantasy wideout will be Rivers’ primary target once again . He’s a safe top 8 WR. Mike Williams is the name to watch in this receiving corps; the #7 overall pick in 2017, Williams hurt his back last summer and sputtered through a lost rookie campaign. Assuming he lands a Week 1 starting role, he'll beat his WR-53 ADP. Early drafters in deep leagues absolutely should take a flyer on him after about 45 WRs are off the board. He or Tyrell Williams will be Rivers’ #2 wideout target -- a role that served Tyrell well in 2017 when he was the 45th highest scoring fantasy WR. Tyrell's current WR-73 ADP is harsh and presents a WR5 buying opportunity. Meanwhile, Travis Benjamin parlayed a few nice games into fantasy’s 50th most WR points. Barring injuries elsewhere, he won’t come close to replicating that.
Finally, Hunter Henry’s torn ACL means a significant TE downgrade for the Chargers. Denver castoff Virgil Green likely will take over. He’s simply undraftable. If you’re in a dynasty league and have an IR spot, grab Henry late and stash him. He’ll be a top-5 TE someday.