Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Matt Ryan rebound?
2. Is Tevin Coleman an RB2/3?
3. Will Ito Smith make an impact?
4. Is Calvin Ridley a must-draft WR?
5. Is Austin Hooper draftable?
Matt Ryan’s 2016 outburst was an NFL rarity: a 30+ year old enjoying a career year that blew every other year out of the water. We saw it with Peyton Manning in 2013 and, to a lesser extent, Alex Smith last year. Previously, Ryan oscillated between the seventh and 19th best fantasy QB in a solid eight-year career in which he’d missed only two games. Then in 2016 he finished #2 with 347 points—14% above his previous high and 40% above his per-season average. So of course, virtually the entire fantasy universe (including me) assumed he'd at least come close to replicating this success in 2017. All major and minor offensive weapons were returning: Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Mohammed Sanu, Austin Hooper, and so on. His QB ADP was 4, and he was fourth on my draft board. Yet he crashed back to Earth, finishing 15th among fantasy QBs and falling 8% below his more modest 2008-2015 average fantasy production.
What happened? Well for starters, the Falcons were sub-par in red zone TD execution, finding the end zone only 49% of the time (23rd best in the league), way down from 65% (eighth overall) in 2016. And they suffered 30 drops last year (most in the league), way up from 11 (third best) in 2016. Other metrics are similarly correctable, and they make Ryan a realistic bounce-back candidate. While elite or even near-elite production seems far-fetched, top 10-15 numbers are realistic. Half of the 82 experts highlighted by Fantasy Pros rank him 16th-23rd. He's 13th on my board and should be drafted in pretty much every league.
In the first four and final four games of 2017, Devonta Freeman was his usual dominant self. The middle eight contests were more of a struggle when he was on the field, and he was sidelined with a concussion for almost three full games. He’ll remain an RB1 this season as long as he’s healthy, which is something to track after recovering from MCL and PCL sprains this offseason. And for the fourth straight year, Tevin Coleman should reprise his role as the 1B to Freeman’s 1A. Experiencing declining efficiency (only 4.0 YPC last year) on increased usage, Coleman is a good value pick at his RB-28 ADP, especially knowing he’s one Freeman injury away from elite status—that is, unless rookie Ito Smith (RB-94) makes a move. We should know by late August whether Smith is NFL ready; if he is, Coleman’s upside takes the biggest hit.
Assuming his holdout is resolved, Julio Jones will once again be a dominant WR1. Toss last year’s letdown out the window. He averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in any of his other six seasons, and he scored only three times. On the flip side, Mohammed Sanu performed about as well as he could have, finishing 29th among fantasy WRs and catching a career-high 67 balls. He’ll be virtually undraftable this year thanks to the arrival of first rounder Calvin Ridley. Ridley should quickly ascend to the #2 role, giving Atlanta its best 1-2 aerial punch since Roddy White and Julio in 2012. I'd steer clear of Sanu at his WR-63 ADP and would definitely grab Ridley at his WR-49 ADP.
Finally, I was bullish about the below-radar Austin Hooper last summer and am even more bullish about him this summer. At 22-23 years old, Hooper was the 17th highest scoring fantasy TE in an underperforming offense. His current TE-24 ADP is laughably shortsighted. He’ll be in the top 16 and is a decent bet to reach the top 12. An exceptional blocker, the third-year pro will be on the field a lot, which is what you want in a talented tight end in a high-powered (yes, the Falcons once again will be high-powered) offense.