Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Tyrod Taylor outperform Baker Mayfield?
2. Which RB will be the biggest fantasy producer?
3. Will Josh Gordon outperform Jarvis Landry?
4. Can any other WR be a regular fantasy contributor?
5. Is David Njoku a TE1?
Few major North American sports teams have ever endured futility as prolonged as the Browns. Since their 1999 NFL return, Cleveland is 88-216 with only one postseason berth (a first-round loss). In fact, they haven’t won two playoff games in a row in more than 60 years. And they haven’t had a winning record these past 10 seasons, during which they're 38-122. But several offseason investments and two seemingly smart early draft picks make the Browns a team on the rise, with six players offering short-term and/or season-long fantasy usefulness.
In Baker Mayfield, Cleveland has a potential franchise QB for decade or more. The big question is whether he’ll start early enough in the season to be a viable fantasy draft pick in deep leagues. He has top 14-18 potential if everything breaks right, and is more likely a top 22-26 QB if/when he takes the field in 2018. The perennially underrated Tyrod Taylor stands in his way. Taylor’s receiving weapons are far and away better than anything he had in Buffalo, including two potential top-20 WRs and a dangerous, high-volume, pass-catching RB. While many people will be pulling for the Mayfield Era to begin, the Browns realistically could start off 3-3, giving Taylor a long enough of a leash to do some damage. On the flip side, due to a tough midseason schedule, Cleveland easily could lose five of their following six, motivating management to insert Mayfield. If I knew for certain Taylor would start all 16 games, he'd be a low-end QB1 on my draft board; remember, he’s been a top 16 fantasy producer in each of his past three seasons with less talent around him. He will absolutely help some fantasy managers early in the year. But rest-of-season uncertainty keeps him outside my top 20.
Who will lead the backfield? The fantasy universe suggests it's a virtual dead heat between Carlos Hyde (RB-33 ADP), Duke Johnson (RB-36), and rookie Nick Chubb (RB-41). Given Tyrod Taylor’s running chops and Duke’s passing-game usage, as well as Hyde’s likely involvement -- at least early on -- Chubb's value could be realized later this season if the less nimble Mayfield takes over and Hyde gets squeezed out. In other words, even if Hyde starts Week 1 atop the depth chart, Chubb is the team’s best fantasy RB bargain if you have the bench space to stash him. Meanwhile, Duke should be a consistent RB4 with upside depending on how he’s utilized. And steer clear of Hyde at his price point, as everything has to break his way to earn more than one or two RB2+ contests. In reality, he’s a timeshare waiting to happen (at best) and more realistically will be a lesser-used complementary back by midseason.
In April Jarvis Landry netted a $75.5 million contract with $47 million guaranteed. In the past three years he’s been the ninth, 13th, and fifth highest scoring PPR WR. And that’s without a QB1 talent throwing to him (primarily Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler, and Matt Moore). Whether he’s the #1 or #2 receiver on this team, Landry should be able to cover his WR-22 ADP. Josh Gordon is the bigger enigma. His WR-15 ADP assumes a return to early-career glory. Three obstacles stand in his way: He’s never had to play with a receiver as talented as Landry, he’s looked good -- but not great -- in limited action since 2014, and he’s a constant off-field-disruption risk. This is a guy who’s been suspended three times by the NFL -- once for over two seasons -- and hasn’t played more than five games in a season since 2013. Perfect world, Gordon offers high-end WR2 production. Realistically, he’s a WR3/4 with weekly red flags, making him overrated at his price. Only two out of 77 experts rank him outside the top 30, with 84% calling him a WR1 or WR2. Clearly I'm in the minority: he's 38th on my board.
The remaining WR scraps will go to 2016 first-round bust Corey Coleman, the talent-capped Rashard Higgins, and/or rookie Antonio Callaway. Some believe Jeff Janis could get some run in this offense, but a lot has to happen for him to be relevant. As long as Landry and Gordon are on the field, it’s tough to envision any other wideout offering value in anyone’s fantasy lineup.
Finally, David Njoku easily met expectations after getting drafted in the first round last year. On average he’s getting snagged 13th among TEs this summer, making him a tangible bargain (he's #8 on my board). After averaging only two catches per game in 2017, he’s poised for another leap forward with 3+ receptions per game.