Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Dak Prescott a QB1?
2. Will Ezekiel Elliott be a top-3 RB?
3. Who will back up Zeke?
4. Is any WR a must-draft receiver?
5. Who will win the TE competition?
Dak Prescott was the #6 fantasy scoring QB in a 2016 rookie campaign that seemed too good to be true. When a preseason back injury sidelined Tony Romo, Prescott didn’t just take over the starting job; he ran away with it, producing the league’s third highest QB rating on an incredible 23/4 TD/INT ratio, all while throwing to a hampered Dez Bryant and a sub-subpar receiving corps (Cole Beasley was his #1 target). Oh, and he ran for six scores.
Last year was a different story -- or at least that’s the storyline fantasy aficionados want you to believe. Dak was not his “normal” Dak. He was less efficient with his throws, accrued fewer yards per pass, tossed more interceptions, and engineered zero fourth-quarter comebacks (he had five in 2016). So it’s easy to say that his rookie year was a fluke. More than half of the 79 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros rank him between 19th and 24th. But let's put this in perspective: Last year Dez’s career went off the rails, and once again Dak was forced to lean too much on him and pedestrian receivers like Beasley and Terrance Williams. Jason Witten was a shadow of his former Hall-of-Fame-caliber self. Ezekiel Elliott played only 10 games. And get this: Dak still managed to post the 10th most fantasy points among all QBs. Don’t believe the naysayers. Sure, Dak needs more talent around him to return to his rookie-year dominance. But he’s a locked-in top 16 option with realistic top 12-14 upside, making him a bargain at his current universal value.
The circus-like issues surrounding Zeke Elliott’s 2017 appeals -- and eventual six-game suspension --are well documented. Drafting him means drafting a top-3 RB with an above-average risk of off-the-field headaches. Is he worth it? Absolutely. But we all have to understand this going into any draft. Unlike last year with Alfred Morris, there’s no obvious handcuff if Zeke misses time. Rod Smith, who looked good in limited action last year, will battle Bo Scarbrough and Trey Williams. If there’s a clear winner by August, that guy should instantly become a top-45 RB target. There’s talk that newly acquired WR Tavon Austin will be involved more in the backfield. But it’s honestly hard to see how the former first-round bust secures any stand-alone value, even if Zeke is out.
Cole Beasley (WR-98 ADP) and Terrance Williams (WR-102 ADP) are still around, although neither is assured a top-2 midseason role. Given their incredibly low ADPs, at least one of them will be a WR6+ bargain with top 30-40 upside. Of course, Williams’ fate is still unclear after he was charged in May with public intoxication and leaving the scene of an accident. Any significant league-imposed absence could be an addition by subtraction, giving more run to Allen Hurns (WR-46), who will play alongside a far better QB than what he was accustomed to in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, rookie Michael Gallup is the most intriguing Cowboy receiver. The 2018 third rounder could end this season anywhere between the #4 receiver and the #1; it all depends on his development. Owning a WR-59 ADP, he’s an obvious dynasty grab and a worthwhile investment in deep re-draft leagues. The key takeaway here is that collectively these receivers' ADPs are unrealistically low. Aside from Dallas and Jacksonville, every NFL team has one or two top-45 ADP WRs. One or two Cowboy receivers will finish the year in the top 50. Guess right, and you'll earn at least one bargain, and a potentially huge one at that.
Dallas has one of the league’s most interesting TE battles. Rico Gathers, Blake Jarwin, Geoff Swaim, and Dalton Schultz will compete to replace Jason Witten. This could turn into a time-share between two of them. But if one cracks the ceiling, he’ll become an instant top 16 TE. That makes it a battle deep leaguers should watch closely.