Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Kirk Cousins a near-elite fantasy QB?
2. Will Dalvin Cook be a near-elite fantasy RB?
3. Is Latavius Murray worth drafting?
4. Can Kendall Wright be relevant?
5. Is Kyle Rudolph a locked-in TE1?
Appreciate for a moment what Kirk Cousins has been able to do since getting drafted in 2012 as the backup to former almost-legend Robert Griffin III. RGIII’s injuries and shocking all-around collapse handed Cousins the starting job, which he proceeded to relinquish to Colt McCoy in 2014. Cousins then regained the starting role the following summer, in the final year of his rookie contract. Six games into the 2015 season, Cousins had only 1,420 passing yards and a 7/8 TD/INT ratio, and a floundering Washington franchise (only three winning seasons since 2000) was sitting at 2-4.
But then everything changed. Cousins and the entire offense closed out the season 7-3 to reach the postseason. He was the eighth highest scoring fantasy QB by year's end. Recently on the brink of getting benched, Cousins surely should have jumped at the chance at a nice payday. But the Redskins’ $16-million-per-year offer wasn’t enough. He made a decision that few largely unproven talents dare make: taking a one-year contract and betting on a bigger long-term payday the following offseason. That next year he was the fifth highest scoring QB. The Redskins once again didn’t offer him what he wanted. So he gambled again on a one-year contract and finished 2017 as the sixth highest scoring QB. That led to this offseason’s signing with Minnesota: an historic fully-guaranteed, $84 million contract, making him the highest-paid player in NFL history.
I write all this because it demonstrates what Cousins has gone through to get to this point. For years he’s been betting on himself and winning, and that won’t change despite this cushy three-year deal. He’s in an ideal spot because of talented teammates—this is a Super Bowl-caliber team—and he’ll enter 2018 as a "buy" at his QB-8 ADP.
Dalvin Cook’s incredible start to his career ended suddenly with a Week 4 knee injury that cost him the rest of the season. He was on pace for about 1,900 total yards and eight scores on 20+ touches per contest. That would have placed him fifth among all fantasy RBs. So with his return to health, combined with Jerick McKinnon’s departure, you have to wonder why his RB ADP is stuck at 10. His only semi-serious competition is Latavius Murray, whose fantasy success the past three seasons has been driven by volume and touchdowns, not by efficiency (he hasn’t exceeded 4.0 YPC since 2014). Expect Cook to dominate touches (I'm targeting 300+), just like he did last year before going down. Simply put, he's a bargain. As for Murray, he’s a top-8 RB handcuff given there’s no one of value running behind him, so he’s certainly worth snagging in deep leagues ahead of his RB-49 ADP.
Minnesota has a stacked receiving corps. Adam Thielen is coming off a WR1 season, while Stefon Diggs was a WR2 despite missing two games. Diggs was actually on pace for 73/970/9 production, which would have placed him just inside the WR1 club. Then they went out and signed Kendall Wright, giving them one of the highest-upside #3 receivers in the league, while Laquon Treadwell bides his time as a promising third-year development project (remember, he’s still only 22 years old). Thielen and Diggs are priced right at their respective WR-12 / WR-15 ADPs. Wright (an absurd WR-105 ADP) would be an instant deeper-league bargain assuming he wins a starting job; he has WR4/5 appeal and would jump into the WR3 conversation if Thielen or Diggs gets hurt.
Finally, Kyle Rudolph keeps gettin’ it done. Another TE1 campaign and a third straight 16-game season. The only concern is Dalvin Cook’s impact: In Cook’s four games last year, Rudolph averaged 2.5 catches and 27 yards per game while finding the end zone only once. In the 12 games after Cook went down, Rudolph averaged 3.9 and 35 while scoring seven times. Understandably, a small sample size. But Cook’s backfield usage combined with Thielen’s ascension have made Rudolph the fourth option on offense -- and possibly the fifth if Wright steps up. Aside from the 2016 season, Rudolph has been a largely TD-dependent TE throughout his career, and that won’t change in 2018. He's 14th on my draft board -- lower than every expert ranking, and despite a TE-8 ADP. Let an opponent snag him at his current inflated price.