Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Andrew Luck be a QB1?
2. Who will win the RB battle?
3. Is T.Y. Hilton a WR1?
4. Who will be #2 fantasy scoring wideout?
5. Does Indy have a TE1?
Last year I started cautioning readers about Indy’s franchise QB in mid-July. The acquisition of Jacoby Brissett for some reason didn’t impact Andrew Luck's ADP, but my concerns increased: Why would the Colts trade for a raw NFL talent and immediately throw him onto the field if they believed Luck’s return would be imminent (as all reports back then stated)? To be blunt, by October this site was doing what essentially no other site would: urging readers to dump Luck. Even though he was reportedly “likely” to return in November, the writing was on the wall: This was not a playoff team, and there was no reason Indy would risk further injury to Luck in meaningless late-season games.
Today Luck’s QB ADP is 11, which assumes he’ll be pretty much 100% healthy to start the season. But as May turned to June, he still hadn’t resumed throwing. Then in front of reporters on June 12 he started throwing again. A miracle. Except later we learned he was throwing a high school ball. Didn't exactly inspire confidence, and nothing Luck or team representatives say should matter to anyone. Let me be clear: not only is Luck not in peak form, but he’s still no lock to regain peak form this season. He’s a quintessential boom-bust draft pick who could return anywhere from third-round to 20th-round value. We’ll know sometime in August where in this range he’s likely to fall. If he's anything less than 100%, QB2/3 Jacoby Brissett will be a popular two-QB-league draft pick. For now, Luck is 19th on my draft board.
The Colts have one of the hardest-to-pin-down backfields in the league. Last summer on this page I pushed the RB-55 ADP Marlon Mack as the best fantasy value among Indy RBs, and he showed flashes while accumulating 583 total yards and four TDs on 114 touches. With an RB ADP of 32, Mack has strong RB3 potential if he can manage 12+ touches a game, but that remains a huge question mark. Multi-team castoff Christine Michael has only a slim chance to play a meaningful role, and the suspended Robert Turbin’s chances are even lower. That leaves rookie fourth-rounder Nyheim Hines (RB-51 ADP) and rookie fifth-rounder Jordan Wilkins (RB-65) as Mack’s stiffest competition. As it stands, drafting Mack at his current value holds the biggest risk, while Hines is the best bargain. That said, I doubt anyone runs away with the job for much of the season.
If you look beyond T.Y. Hilton, Indy has one of the NFL’s worst receiving corps. Chester Rogers and Ryan Grant offer low-upside veteran presence, while rookies Deon Cain and Daurice Fountain offer “What do we have to lose?” potential, given how Rogers’ and Grant’s contracts expire at the end of the season. In other words, early on Indy might want to see what they have in Cain and Fountain, particularly if they’re staring at another lost season. As for Hilton, his WR-14 ADP assumes Luck is a full go Week 1. Draft him with a warranted lack of confidence until we know more in August. He's clinging to the 19th spot on my board.
Finally, last summer I never expected Jack Doyle to build on his impressive 2016 breakout. Kudos to those who continued to believe in the Western Kentucky product. He easily led the team in receptions with 80. Hilton was second with 57 and Frank Gore was third with 29. It’s beyond unusual for a tight end to be such an extreme offensive focus, and it won’t continue in 2018. Eric Ebron is now a Colt, netting over $12 million in guaranteed money this offseason to do more than sit on the sidelines. His presence makes Doyle (TE-11 ADP) ridiculously overrated, while Ebron (TE-18 ADP) is a slight buy if Luck proves healthy.