Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Eli Manning rebound from last year’s letdown?
2. Is Saquon Barkley a first-round fantasy pick?
3. Is Odell Beckham, Jr. a first-round fantasy pick?
4. Will Sterling Shepard be a WR3+?
5. Is Evan Engram a near-elite TE?
The 2018 Giants endured their worst season since 1983. And it was worse than that, because their atrocious ’83 was due in large part to eventual franchise QB Phil Simms barely playing before suffering a season-ending injury. And their young nucleus of Lawrence Taylor and Joe Morris would eventually help lead them to a title. Last year’s Giants were an injury-riddled, talent-diminished mess. And they’re nearing the end of the Eli Manning Era, which for some can’t come soon enough. I’m a contrarian, though, and that’s why I find it hilarious that the fantasy universe thinks so little of Eli heading into 2018. His QB-23 ADP is a bit insane. Are people assuming rookie fourth-rounder Kyle Lauletta or second-year third-rounder Davis Webb will force Eli into early retirement? Or that Eli was mostly at fault for a forgettable 2017? I don't see it. As long as Eli has Odell Beckham, Jr., Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram at his disposal, he’ll be no worse than a top 18 QB. The 37-year-old averaged 16.3 fantasy points with a healthy receiving corps in weeks 1-5, and 10.6 fantasy points the rest of the way (with three of his top four wideouts sidelined for the season). This year he'll come much closer to 16.3.
Rookie Saquon Barkley is, on average, the sixth RB coming off the board in fantasy drafts, and for good reason. He's the complete package athletically and fundamentally: a powerful runner, a gifted pass-catcher, an exceptional blocker, and fast as hell. He’s what the Giants have been searching for. They haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher in six years. Eli will be better because the running game will be better. If Barkley becomes the workhorse as expected, he’ll get everything he can handle. Ignore recent signee Jonathan Stewart. He’s a post-prime, 31-year-old insurance policy on Barkley’s health. Nothing more.
Who wants to take a chance on OBJ? Beckham remains in a contract dispute that could spill over into the preseason and beyond. This other-worldly talent boasts a WR-3 ADP, which is ridiculously optimistic. Eli was the 10th best fantasy QB in two of OBJ's three dominant seasons. In addition to being a holdout threat, the 25-year-old must also contend with an improved running game that will rob him of some scores. 10 of his 38 career TDs have come inside the 6-yard line, and of the Giants' 33 RB rushing scores during his career, only seven have come beyond the 3. Only one of 70+ experts ranks him outside the top 5 (#8 by Razzball's Rudy Gamble). I've pegged him at #12 on my draft board. A more balanced offensive attack and an ascending Sterling Shepard will frustrate those who still view OBJ as elite.
The final Big Three member is Sterling Shepard, whose WR-43 ADP is misguided. He’ll be the #3 option in an underrated offense and is one of my favorite draftable WR bargains. He’s a top-35 wideout with WR2 potential if the Giants’ offense starts clicking. Bringing up the rear are Roger Lewis and Russell Shepard. The Giants didn’t need another Shepard, and Lewis is no better than a WR6. One of these two will be relevant only if OBJ (fairly possible) or Sterling Shepard (less possible) misses time.
Finally, Evan Engram was as good as advertised last year, though some of his best games occurred when the team’s receiving corps was decimated by injury. Most of the fantasy universe doesn't realize that playing alongside Barkley, OBJ, and Shepard and will hamper his usage and production. As a result, his TE-5 ADP is a bit too generous, though he's a near-lock for the top 10.