Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Andy Dalton a top 18 QB?
2. Will Joe Mixon take another step forward?
3. Is A.J. Green a top 10 WR?
4. Who will be the second-best fantasy wideout?
5. Is Tyler Eifert draftable?
Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are about to start their eighth season together. That’s quintessential old-school. If you factor in Gio Bernard and Tyler Eifert, that foursome is entering their sixth year together and will be expected to carry a decent amount of the offensive load for a team that’s missed the playoffs two straight seasons after reaching the postseason in each of the previous five.
It starts with Dalton, whose fantasy reputation is worse than his actual numbers. Last year he was the 17th highest scoring QB. He’s generally an upper-end QB2, having never finished worse than 18th and only once finishing better than 12th. Yet he owns a QB-26 ADP and an average expert ranking of 26th. 67 of 69 experts believe he's headed toward his worst fantasy season ever. This is a case where the fantasy universe assumes the worst. While I'm not going to assume the best, the end result will be somewhere in between: top 17-20 production, meaning he's a solid QB2.
I wanted more from Joe Mixon last season, and he wasn’t even on my team. Still, he earned 208 touches as a rookie and played best at year’s end: 256 yards on 51 carries (5.0 YPC) in his final four games. He's a slight "buy" at his RB-15 ADP on the assumption he hits 250 touches (entirely doable). The former second-rounder has weekly RB1 potential if Gio’s running-game role is reduced. That said, for now Bernard is a PPR bargain (RB-55 ADP) because of his passing-game usage. Rookie Mark Walton is a name to monitor in August if Gio -- and particularly if Mixon -- gets hurt.
A.J. Green is A.J. Green. If he replicates in the next seven years what he’s done in the past seven, he’ll be top 5 all-time in receptions, top 4 in receiving TDs, and top 3 in receiving yards. It’s a tall order given he’ll be 36 by then. But the point is that few receivers have been this statistically successful in their 20s. Green has been a top 10 fantasy WR in all four of his 16-game seasons, and he’ll maintain weekly WR1 appeal in 2018. The other wideouts will battle for #2 honors, with Brandon LaFell hoping to cling to relevance. By virtue of starting opposite Green last year, he put together a 52/548/3 campaign. John Ross, Tyler Boyd, and Josh Malone will try to make some noise. Last year’s #9 overall pick, Ross endured a forgettable rookie campaign, but is a great bet to comfortably beat his WR-83 ADP. Only two of 60+ experts list him in the top 60, which is where he belongs given his WR4+ upside if he wins the #2 job. Boyd and Malone have a higher hill to climb to achieve fantasy relevance, with Boyd having a leg up due to experience.
Last summer I couldn’t rationalize drafting Tyler Eifert at his TE-7 ADP: “He’s been healthy enough to play in 22 of the Bengals’ past 48 games and now must contend with a more potent run game in the red zone and a somewhat improved aerial attack. He’s also averaged under five targets per game for his NFL career.” His one good season (2015) was good only because he caught 13 TD passes. If he had caught only three, there wouldn’t have been all this ridiculous Eifert hype these past two injury-plagued years. His current TE-14 ADP assumes, what, he'll miss only two games? Once again, I’m urging readers to let an opponent draft him at or even near that price. Backup Tyler Kroft (TE-38) looked just as capable in 2017.