Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Matthew Stafford a top 10 fantasy QB?
2. Will Kerryon Johnson dominate the running game?
3. Who will be more productive: Golden Tate or Marvin Jones?
4. Is Kenny Golladay a must-draft WR in deeper leagues?
5. Is Luke Wilson or Michael Roberts a draftable TE?
Matthew Stafford is undervalued just about every summer. Last year’s #7 fantasy scoring QB hasn’t missed a game since 2010 and has never fallen below 4,200 passing yards during the same stretch. The past 3-4 years have seen markedly higher completion percentages and fewer interceptions. And despite a downward trend in pass attempts since 2012, he remains one of the NFL’s highest-volume passers. Oh, and he’s posted QB1 numbers in six of the past seven seasons. Facing only a potentially modest TE downgrade since last year, the uber-reliable Stafford (QB-10 ADP) offers back-end QB1 value at worst. Why Jimmy Garoppolo (QB-9) is getting picked before him in average drafts is beyond comprehension.
Once-promising second rounder Ameer Abdullah led a running game in 2017 that was last in the league in yards and yards-per-carry. In fairness, they were also second-to-last in carries, but the reason they didn’t earn more should be obvious. Abdullah produced his worst numbers at the worst possible time for the third-year pro, netting 3.4 YPC and getting phased out down the stretch. The lesser-hyped Dwayne Washington has had two years to give the Lions something -- anything -- and has consistently fallen short. So let’s focus first on the one returning running back. We all know Theo Riddick is one of the game’s best-catching backs, with 186 receptions in the last three years. An inferior runner on the ground (career 3.4 YPC on 248 rushes), he was asked to do too much in 2016 (92 carries) and 2017 (84 carries). I’d be shocked if he earned more than 25 totes this year. Based on 2017 YPC and receiving numbers, such a diminished running role would reduce his fantasy stats by nearly 12%, which last year would have knocked him down from the 26th to the 36th best PPR RB. So I’d caution you to lower expectations for a guy many people will reach too high for.
I’m speculating on Riddick’s reduced production because of the arrival of Kerryon Johnson, Detroit's 2018 second-round draft pick and a potential Lions backfield mainstay. I love his RB-35 ADP and don't understand why 60+ experts' average RB ranking for the rookie is 39th. Assuming he comfortably wins the starting job in August, he’ll be the team’s first 225-carry back since Kevin Smith in 2008. His stiffest competition is another recent addition, the 31-year-old LeGarrette Blount. The Eagles were wise last year to give Blount a limited role after his 299-carry outburst for the Patriots in 2016. He ran well for most of the season before fading a bit down the stretch. Signed to a one-year contract, the overrated Blount (RB-50 ADP, RB-48 average expert ranking) at best will split time with Johnson, and at worst will be a little-used mentor for the 20-year-old.
The Lions’ top four wideouts from 2017 are back, and at first glance appear poised to reprise their roles. Last year Marvin Jones and Golden Tate were the 11th and 12th highest PPR fantasy scoring WRs, respectively, and both guys are bargains at their current WR-24 (Tate) and WR-25 (Jones) ADPs. Tate will be more heavily targeted and now has four straight 90-reception seasons. Jones benefited from racking up nine touchdowns, with one coming beyond the 40-yard line and three coming inside the 10. By comparison, three of Tate’s four scores came beyond the 40, and none occurred from inside the 10. That an interesting thing about Tate, that only one of his last eight TDs have come inside the 10 -- but eight of his 10 scores before that (all with the Lions) were inside the 10.
What could have caused this fairly dramatic shift between the 2014-2015 seasons and the 2016-2017 seasons? Well, Calvin Johnson was Stafford’s #1 target in 2014 and 2015. In fact, Tate’s only two deep scores while playing alongside Johnson occurred in October 2014 -- when Johnson was sidelined. Starting in 2016, Tate assumed the #1 role, drawing opposing teams’ top cornerbacks, while the newly acquired Jones -- on par talent-wise with Tate -- could seize on situational mismatches. As long as Tate continues to draw defenses’ top talents, he’ll be a high-volume, low-scoring WR2 in 2018. He’s safer in PPR, but in Standard leagues I’d rather have Jones. But both are bargains at their current prices, unless . . .
The one player who could throw a wrench is all this is second-year pro Kenny Golladay. I loved Golladay last year as a late-round flyer in most drafts, as he offered WR3 potential if Tate or Jones got hurt. He will almost certainly build on last year’s 477/3 line. How much he develops will impact Stafford’s stat line positively and could impact Tate’s and Jones’s negatively. His WR-59 ADP makes him a slight bargain at worst and a solid bargain (WR4) at best. Given his value, I'd target him late in every deep league. Finally, T.J. Jones is worth monitoring if any of these three guys is sidelined. As a starter he’d likely be a useful streamer in deeper leagues.
Finally, Detroit inked former Seahawk Luke Wilson to a nothing-to-lose, one-year deal after letting Eric Ebron and Darren Fells walk. Wilson’s five-year sample size in Seattle is relatively small, so his production range is vast. He's 29th on my draft board because of a camp competition with 2017 fourth rounder Michael Roberts. No one thinks anything of Roberts, which is a mistake. 60+ experts place him 50th on average, and his best ranking is 36th. But Roberts is #33 with an up arrow on my board. This is a camp battle deep leaguers should follow in case one of these guys wins the starting job outright.