Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Cam Newton an elite QB?
2. Will C.J. Anderson be a top 25 RB?
3. Is Devin Funchess a WR2+?
4. Is D.J. Moore draftable?
5. Will Greg Olsen return to his normal reliable production?
Last year Cam Newton put together his fifth top-4 fantasy QB performance in seven NFL seasons. He achieved this despite averaging a career-low 206 passing yards per game, a career-low 6.7 yards per attempt, and a near-career-high 16 interceptions. He achieved this also despite #1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin getting traded midseason and near-elite TE Greg Olsen missing nine games due to injury and performing abysmally in the other six. The second-highest receiving yardage total among all active Carolina wideouts by season’s end was 202 (Russell Shepard). Brenton Bersin was third with 128 yards.
The Panthers' franchise QB is far from perfect; for example, he continues to struggle with accuracy. Yet these past seven years he’s been a more reliable elite option than Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady (only four top-4 fantasy QB performances apiece), while the 29-year-old’s superior running game (league-high and career-high 754 rushing yards in 2017) helps buffer some of his otherwise pedestrian passing games. Leading an 11-5 team that would have been 5-11 or worse without him, Cam was, in my worthless opinion, far more worthy of the MVP award than Brady, who received 40 of 50 votes (Cam inexplicably received none). But that’s another story.
The key takeaway is that Cam is a dominant fantasy force with plenty of room for improvement—and for an improved/healthy support cast. His QB-5 ADP is too low. Expect the uber-franchise quarterback to “rebound” statistically in 2018 and be a fantasy steal in just about every draft. Only two of 70+ experts rank him as high as 2 (most place him fifth to ninth). He's #2 on my board with a shot at moving to #1 by August.
Christian McCaffrey was as good as advertised last season, as the rookie caught 80 balls and finished 10th in RB PPR scoring (15th Standard). He was particularly valuable with the 30-year-old Jonathan Stewart sputtering for most of the year. Yes, Stewart collected seven TDs, but his career-low 3.4 YPC was a drive killer. That said, C.J. Anderson's arrival and an improved WR corps should impede a McCaffrey bump, making him overvalued at his RB-11 ADP. Keep in mind he averaged 16 fantasy points per game (PPR) with Olsen sidelined vs. 12 with Olsen on the field. Meanwhile, if the 27-year-old Anderson roughly matches Stewart’s 2017 line -- about 700 total yards and seven scores -- he’ll exceed his RB-41 ADP. That's entirely doable, and I'd gladly target him with 32-35 RBs off the board.
Devin Funchess did most of his damage last year after Kelvin Benjamin departed. But interestingly, his per-game receptions dropped: 4.4 with Benjamin on the field, 3.6 without. Was he struggling to gain separation against opposing teams’ #1 cornerbacks? Did a late-season shoulder injury constrain him? I see him as a half-glass-full option: young, talented, and productive despite limited usage. Give him another target per game, and you’re looking at a solid WR2 -- better than his WR-30 ADP. Only one of 70+ experts ranks him better than 22nd, and 33 place him in the 30s-40s. He's #21 on my draft board. Meanwhile, rookie D.J. Moore appears to be NFL-ready and objectively is the team’s highest-upside wideout next to Funchess. If Moore shows well in camp, you’re looking at a solid off-the-grid (from an ADP perspective) late-round flyer. Elsewhere, the Panthers acquired Torrey Smith and Jarius Wright, two guys who might give you streaming help in an ideal world, but who are merely boom-bust #5 or #6 offensive options even if they earn a starting role. Then there’s Curtis Samuel, who fell flat in an injury-riddled rookie campaign. Realistically he’ll join Smith and Wright in the hunt for sporadic production.
After nine straight 16-game seasons, Greg Olsen showed he was human in an entirely forgettable 2017 campaign. But Carolina knows what it has in this perennial near-elite TE and handed him a two-year, $17.1 million extension in April. Now he’s back on the preseason top-5 ADP perch where he’s sat for years. There’s no reason to expect anything less.