Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Joe Flacco or Lamar Jackson be more productive?
2. Is Alex Collins a locked-in RB2+?
3. Does Kenneth Dixon have a realistic shot at carving out a role?
4. Will Michael Crabtree rebound?
5. Can Willie Snead or John Brown be fantasy relevant?
Among all QBs who played in all 16 games, Joe Flacco scored the fewest fantasy points (185), 31 points behind Jacoby Brissett. That’s how bad Baltimore’s “franchise” QB was. Of course, his three best receivers were Mike Wallace, Jeremy Maclin, and Ben Watson, so we can cut him a little slack (but only a little) for being second-worst among all 2017 starter and fill-in QBs in (1) average distance (past the line of scrimmage) of his throws on completed passes and (2) average distance (past the line of scrimmage) on all attempts. In other words, he rarely threw it downfield. And when he did, the results were not good: 12 of 39 on passes beyond 20 yards with three TDs and four interceptions. Oh, and Flacco’s signed for another four seasons.
First-round pick Lamar Jackson gives Baltimore fans some hope. He might not be better this year, and he might not start more games. But if Flacco stumbles out of the gate, Jackson could take over for good. It’s a precarious situation from a fantasy perspective, as much of the receiving corps is new to the team, and collectively are not that much of an improvement over last year’s group. So whoever’s starting at QB will face hurdles. That said, Flacco’s QB-31 ADP makes him a relative two-QB-league bargain if he indeed wins the starting job, while Jackson's QB-30 ADP makes sense if he starts the year as the backup.
Confusion also reigns in the backfield, though for all the right reasons. Alex Collins exceeded my 2017 expectations big-time; congrats to those of you who saw his breakout coming. If he continues to rake in 16-18 touches a game, he should cover his RB-19 ADP. Javorius “Buck” Allen was competent in a complementary role and looked good in the passing game. He’ll crush his RB-67 ADP if that role continues. The wild card in all this is 2016 fourth rounder Kenneth Dixon, who showed promise his rookie year after missing the first four contests with a torn MCL. Then he missed all of last year with a meniscus tear, during which he served four- and two-game suspensions for PEDs and substance abuse, respectively. If you’re a gambler, there are worse gambles than the largely forgotten Dixon. But understand that everything has to break right for him to be draftable, and the only thing that’s broken right so far is that no suspensions await.
If Michael Crabtree is a target monster—and nothing suggests he won’t be—he’ll be a mainstay contributor in an otherwise uneven wideout corps. Last year was a fluke for the soon-to-be 31-year-old. His TDs could suffer on this run-friendly and defense-friendly team. But he should be a regular WR2/3 with occasional hiccups. Fellow newcomer Willie Snead (WR-75 ADP) nosedived in New Orleans last year after two successful campaigns. Still, those nice stats from 2015 and 2016 came off the arm of one of the greatest QBs of all time. He's a WR5/6 for now. Another new face, John Brown (an insanely low WR-99 ADP), battled a sickle-cell condition last year and has never been a high-volume receiver. I don’t envision both Snead and Brown being draftable, leaving one of them as the answer to the question, “Which one is worth grabbing very late in my draft?” We’ll see how it shakes out in camp.
Finally, Baltimore burned a first-round pick on former Pittsburgh Pirate minor leaguer Hayden Hurst. Okay, "burned" isn't exactly fair. Hurst excelled at TE in college and could step into the starting role on Week 1. But rookie TEs rarely make big impacts, and this offense is not talented enough to bring out the best at that position.