Five Biggest Questions
1. Will 2018 Alex Smith be similar to 2017 Alex Smith?
2. Can Derrius Guice claim a bellcow role?
3. Can Rob Kelley or Samaje Perine be relevant?
4. Is any wideout an every-week fantasy starter?
5. Is Jordan Reed a legit TE1?
This offseason the Redskins gave up a franchise QB for a (now) 34-year-old game manager coming off a career year. A couple years ago they offered Kirk Cousins $24 million in guaranteed money; had they budged on Cousins’ demands, the could have locked him up in his prime at a relative bargain price. Instead, they’ll roll with Alex Smith, whom they recently handed $71 million in guaranteed money. The shenanigans that lost them Cousins -- and their latest desperation trade for Smith -- will set back this franchise 3-4 years. Not to say this was a powerhouse team last year or the year before. But their defense has been the liability. This year they’ll be lucky to win seven games thanks to a weakened passing attack.
It starts with Smith, who blew up last year thanks in large part to having a top 4 RB, top 8 WR, and #1 TE. Rookie Washington RB Derrius Guice is no Kareem Hunt, Jamison Crowder is no Tyreek Hill, and the fragile Jordan Reed is no Travis Kelce even when 110% healthy. This is a classic case of an average NFL starting QB playing out of his mind for completely understandable reasons, moving to a new team with inferior talent, and then being expected to maintain out-of-his-mind production. Smith will be no better than a situational streaming option and won’t be a top 16 QB. In fact, he's 24th on my draft board. And by midseason, Washington ownership will be left wondering why it all went wrong.
Many eyes will be on Guice this preseason. Drafted 59th overall, the LSU product owns a reputation for lacking maturity, but there’s no doubt he’s the highest-upside option in this backfield. An injury-riddled 2017 stymied Rob Kelley’s development after a respectable 2016 season, and a poor offensive line didn't do him any favors. And the Skins are still hoping 2017 fourth rounder Samaje Perine can reach his potential. Meanwhile, Chris Thompson was superb in only 10 games last year, owns three consecutive impressive campaigns, and has the best passing-game chops of the bunch. Guice has to thread the needle to outperform his ambitious RB-21 ADP, while Kelley (outside the top 100 in RB ADP) or Perine (RB-57) could muddy up this entire backfield if Guice starts slow.
Which wideouts will step up? The departed Terrelle Pryor was a complete bust last year, and it took half a season for Jamison Crowder to get going. Josh Doctson caught only 35 balls on 78 targets and was unstartable unless he scored. And the newly acquired Paul Richardson finally was able to contribute in his final year in Seattle after three muted seasons. How will more than one of these guys be fantasy relevant? For now, Crowder and his WR-40 ADP should be your top Washington wideout target. He’s simply the safest option and arguably has the highest upside. I’m viewing Doctson as a WR4/5 and Richardson as a WR5/6. The key takeaway is none of these receivers will help you win a title -- particularly with Washington traveling to Jacksonville in Week 15 in what should be a fantasy nightmare.
Each year I’m increasingly convinced that Jordan Reed doesn’t belong on my fantasy team. Last summer I warned readers to let opponents draft him. The hype doesn’t match the production or the health. He’s missed 28 of 80 NFL games and was entirely ineffective last year outside of one blow-up game against Philly. So it’s baffling why his TE ADP is 9. If you’re in a small-bench, 10-team league, sure, you could take a chance on a return to top-5 production. And if he gets hurt, you’ll have several other TEs to choose from off waivers. But I’m not touching him, especially playing with a resurgent 34-year-old Vernon Davis. Davis clearly outperformed Reed when they split time last Week 4 and 6 and has proven to be more than a backup plan. Assuming Davis maintains the every-game role he’s enjoyed these past two years, Reed has almost no chance of posting top 10 TE numbers.