Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Derek Carr return to fantasy relevance?
2. Is Marshawn Lynch a trustworthy RB2?
3. Is Amari Cooper a weekly fantasy starter?
4. Can Jordy Nelson rebound sharply?
5. Is Martavis Bryant draftable?
What should have, could have, might have been a second consecutive playoff-bound season instead turned into a lost year. Derek Carr took a small step backward in his development, the “prized” offseason signing of recently the retired 31-year-old Marshawn Lynch turned out adequate at best, Amari Cooper was largely invisible for most of the season, and Michael Crabtree wasn’t much better. This year’s squad has been retooled, though we’ll see if it was for the better, particularly with the enigmatic John Gruden now at the helm.
Carr started 2017 with five TDs and zero turnovers as Oakland cruised to 2-0. Then he broke three bones in his back—something he now says impacted his play. Assuming that was the primary cause, Carr is one of my favorite bargain QBs. Keep in mind his receivers dropped 28 passes last year—fourth highest in the NFL. And he had less time to throw (2.49 seconds) per pass attempt than 37 other quarterbacks. The team was also third-to-last in turnover differential, intercepting a league-low five balls, leading to a near-league-low weekly time of possession. Experts on average rank him 21st, with 65 of 69 placing him 18th or worst. Big mistake. Carr is entirely capable of hitting 4,000 and 30 and will shock most people this season. He's a two-QB-league steal and a fantastic get in 16+ team, one-QB leagues.
Admittedly, I didn’t think Lynch would do as well as he did, though I wasn’t expecting much. His numbers put him on the RB2/3 bubble. If you think he’ll remain on that bubble or even rise above it, consider all the warnings I laid out last year, and more. He’s 32 and has been a relatively inefficient runner in eight of 10 seasons—not what you want out of a split-time back. And that’s what Lynch will be at best this year if his body doesn’t break down. Former Buccaneer Doug Martin has more juice in the tank than most folks realize, while dynamic backup duo Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington will continue to fill in. Of those three, Richard deserves more weekly touches given how effectively he’s run in two NFL seasons. His RB-85 ADP (worst among this foursome) makes him the biggest bargain in the group and worth snagging in very deep leagues or if Lynch or Martin are sidelined for the long term this summer.
People love to knock Amari Cooper. Maybe it’s because he plays for the Raiders. Maybe it’s because he was a draft-day reach at #4 overall in 2015. Maybe it’s because he has 18 drops in three NFL seasons. But putting aside last year’s debacle, he was a low-end WR1 in 2016 and a low-end WR2 in 2015. If you agree with me that 2017 is firmly in the rearview mirror and that 2018 will be a return to offensive normalcy—at least for Carr and Cooper—then bank on top 20 WR production with a shot at WR1 numbers if Jordy Nelson falters.
Speaking of Jordy, what a dramatically quick fall for a perennial fantasy beast. Not counting his injury-plagued 2012 campaign and lost 2015 season, Jordy had four monster seasons from 2011 to 2016. After a miserable 2017 , he was unceremoniously jettisoned by the Packers. Yes, Green Bay saw the 33-year-old as a step slower and an unnecessary financial drain. But to be clear, in his four contests with Aaron Rodgers to start the year, Jordy has six scores and enough yards to put him over 1,000 in a 16-game season. Then Rodgers got hurt, and the entire offense wilted with Brett Hundley under center. Jordy’s WR-38 expert ranking makes little sense, even if Cooper dominates. Jordy is a solid candidate for top 25 production and is absolutely worth grabbing a round or two early. Elsewhere, Martavis Bryant will vie for tertiary looks--if he even plays. One of the league's most top-heavy receiving corps, Oakland will not have a fantasy-viable #3 if reports of potentially another Bryant suspension are true. Seth Roberts, Dwayne Harris, or Johnny Holton would become a WR7/8 (for the three of you in need of a WR7/8).
The Raiders' only surprisingly impressive offensive force last year was journeyman TE Jared Cook. He enjoyed a career-high 54 catches and a near-career-high 688 yards, pushing him into the low-end TE1 realm for the first time in a few years. That said, he needs an uptick in TDs to be useful most weeks. It’s something many fantasy managers have been waiting for his entire career, and I don’t see that changing in 2018.