Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will be the starting QB for most of the season?
2. Will David Johnson dominate?
3. Is Larry Fitzgerald a WR2+?
4. Will any other wideout be fantasy relevant?
5. Is any TE draftable?
For the first time in six seasons, Arizona will have a new Week 1 QB. The 38-year-old Carson Palmer—12th in career NFL passing yards and passing TDs—has retired for the second and final time of his career. This offseason the team inked Sam Bradford to a $40 million contract, $15 million of which is guaranteed. That’s absolutely bizarre for a guy who’s missed 26 games in the past four years, and who—let’s face it—has fallen well short of former-#1-overall-pick expectations even when on the field. Putting excessive faith in Bradford in any fantasy draft is like putting faith in your dog to prepare a decent meal. Especially with the newly drafted Josh Rosen on the scene. The Cardinals parted with their 15th, 79th, and 152nd picks in April to move up five spots and nab Rosen, who appears to be as NFL-ready as any rookie QB this year. Even if the veteran earns the opening-day start, Rosen (QB-33 ADP), not Bradford (QB-31), is the Arizona QB to target in two-QB leagues.
Last year’s Week 1 injury to David Johnson was a fantasy earthquake. It’s tough enough to lose a top-flight player midseason. To lose one in the opener—especially a near-universal #1 overall fantasy pick—is devastating. The production drop-off between Johnson and any RB sitting on waivers was huge. But while luck is more impactful than skill in the short term, skill almost always wins out in the end, and fantasy managers who applied hardcore fantasy principles were somewhat able to overcome the loss of Johnson. No longer the #1 overall pick, Johnson will be a draft-day bargain as long as he stays healthy. His 2,000+ total offensive yards and 80 catches in 2016 were no fluke. He’s the real deal and will be the #1 option in this offense. And since we always need to be prepared for the worst, rookie Chase Edmonds (RB-79 expert ranking) offers deeper-league flyer appeal as a potential handcuff.
Retirement talk has surrounded living-legend Larry Fitzgerald for the past three years. And yet he caught more balls in each of those seasons than at any other time of his career and was the fourth-highest-scoring fantasy TE in 2017. The soon-to-be 35-year-old is now third all-time in career receptions and receiving yards and eighth in receiving touchdowns. Assuming a 16-game season, Fitz should comfortably move into second place in the first two (behind Jerry Rice) and into sixth in TDs. With no Cardinal receiver threatening his supremacy in the air, only Father Time (or Mother Injury) can keep him from WR2+ production this season. (And yes, that means he won't come close to matching last year's totals.)
As with last year and the year before that, the remaining wideouts will battle for #2 honors, and it’s quite possible none of them will win. That’ll be tough for fantasy managers needing reliable WR3/4 production. John and Jaron Brown are gone, meaning J.J. Nelson has a decent shot at building on his back-to-back 500+ yard seasons--considerably better than experts' average WR-109 ranking. Meanwhile, rookie Christian Kirk has appeal as a potential starter, and would certainly outperform WR6/7 expert expectations as a result. 2017 third rounder Chad Williams and speedy big-play journeyman Brice Butler could fill roles, though it remains too early to know. Whatever shakes out within this group in August, it could all change by October . . . and then back again in November.
Amazingly, Jermaine Gresham only just turned 30. He’s been a reliable TE2 the past five seasons, and that’s the best any manager can hope for this season. In reality, Ricky Seals-Jones could split time or take over the starting job as early as Week 1. Gresham is undraftable even if he fully recovers from a Week 17 Achilles’ tear. Seals-Jones is an acceptable late-round reach in deep leagues.