Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Marcus Mariota rebound sharply?
2. Who will be the highest fantasy scoring RB?
3. Is Corey Davis a weekly fantasy starter?
4. Will Rishard Matthews remain relevant?
5. Can Delanie Walker continue to dominate?
Last summer I kept returning to the same question: “Why am I down on Marcus Mariota”? Coming off a 26/9 season, the former #2 overall pick enjoyed plenty of breakout appeal while owning a universal QB-9 ADP. Yet he was 17th on my draft board. Why? I laid out my reasoning in an August column: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/08/thoughts-on-marcus-mariota.html. As it turned out, Mariota was a bust, finishing 18th behind Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor.
Today Mariota’s QB ADP sits at 19. His average expert ranking is 18th. So reactionary, and so wrong. Mariota has a new offensive coordinator and new scheme. DeMarco Murray and Eric Decker are gone: addition by subtraction. The remaining options—plus solid pass-catcher and free-agent signee Dion Lewis—make Mariota a terrific QB bargain. Ever the contrarian (when contrarianism makes sense), I believe this highly talented, highly underutilized franchise QB will finish the season in QB1 territory.
For two seasons Derrick Henry has bided his time behind Murray while clearly outplaying him last year. Yet five days after releasing the on-his-way-to-retirement Murray, the Titans locked in Lewis on a four-year deal. Lewis was sputtering in Philadelphia for two years before Bill Belichick & co. helped him become a star. Now we’ll see if he’s more of a system back, or if his skills are transferable. This is one of those cases where if you draft Henry earlier, reaching a bit for Lewis might seem like a hedge, but it’ll help you sleep easier. That said, Lewis's RB-21 average expert ranking and RB-27 ADP are too generous, so don't over-reach.
If you agree with me on Mariota, then you’ll probably agree with me on Corey Davis. A lingering hamstring injury sidelined last year’s #5 overall pick for five games . It’s been five years since a Tennessee wideout has reached 1,000+ yards. Davis will get there this season. He is clear-and-away the most talented receiver on this squad and simply needs to stay on the field to prove it. Elsewhere, Richard Matthews should be a dependable WR4—a favorable designation compared to his WR-58 ADP. Meanwhile, 2016 upstart Tajae Sharpe missed all of last season with a foot injury and should be monitored in case lightning strikes twice. Barring that, Taywan Taylor and former Raven Michael Campanaro will compete for scraps when everyone’s healthy.
I thought Delanie Walker would regress last year. True, his yards per game and yards per catch fell to four-year lows. But the 33-year-old proved me wrong by once again serving as Mariota’s favorite target. He’s averaged 7.5 looks per game during Mariota’s three-year tenure. No tight end has been targeted more during that span. It’s an incredible feat for someone whose first seven seasons were mired in sub-mediocrity in San Francisco. Barring serious injury, he’s a bankable mid-range TE1.