Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Jameis Winston be a QB1?
2. Will Ronald Jones take over the backfield?
3. Will DeSean Jackson rebound?
4. Can Chris Godwin be fantasy relevant?
5. Which TE will rise to the top?
Former #1 overall pick Jameis Winston is a tough player to figure out. He was drafted as an immediate Week 1 starter and was widely viewed as one of the league’s most promising young QBs. Now entering his fourth season, Winston is merely a lukewarm fantasy target on draft day. A shoulder injury cost him three games last year—a season when he produced career-highs in yards per attempt (7.9, good for fourth in the NFL) and completion percentage (63.8%, which placed him 12th). He was also on pace for the most passing yards of his young career, 4,313, which would have put him fifth league-wide.
But despite that, he collected only 20 touchdowns in 13 games and has averaged only 1.5 TD passes per game for his career. Guys like Blake Bortles and Andy Dalton can stake the same claim. What’s worse, Tampa Bay was third in passing attempts last year, 26th in rushing attempts, and 27th in rushing yards. In other words, despite being expected to carry this offense, Winston didn’t take another next step forward in his development. I’d bet against it again this year, when the running game will be featured more prominently. 59 of 63 experts rank him in the top 18, with 22 placing him in the top 12. Whether or not a potentially looming suspension materializes, he won’t be in my top 18.
In the backfield, Tampa Bay jettisoned Doug Martin, who has had only one good/healthy season in his past five. The middling Peyton Barber and even more middling Jacquizz Rodgers remain. Of course, the Bucs needed more, so they drafted Ronald Jones in the second round—the fifth back taken in this year’s draft. On the plus side, Jones is a fantastic athlete and an elusive runner. On the down side, he exhibited little-to-no pass-catching chops in college and is raw on some of the game’s fundamentals. Then again, many running backs arrive in the NFL possessing those deficits, and some are able to solve them (see Todd Gurley). While we don’t yet know where Jones will fall, he clearly has the most upside in this group and right now is slightly better than experts' average RB ranking of 29.
Between the other two backs, Barber is better positioned to share some of the load with Jones. That said, I believe the upside-capped Barber will be largely worthless unless Jones gets hurt. Beyond that, Charles Sims has a glimmer of hope as the team’s receiving-back specialist. He’s averaged 2.7 catches per game for his career. If Barber or Jones falters, Sims could become the same streaming PPR option he was in 2015. A longshot, but worth mentioning, particularly since Sims' average expert RB ranking is 79th and no one has him better than 63rd.
Mike Evans’ hands improved last year, as he dropped only two passes en route to another 1,000+ yard season. But for someone who was drafted in the first or second round of nearly every league, it was a disappointing campaign. He enjoyed only one 100+ yard performance and found the end zone only five times despite finishing 11th in targets (135). The good news is, Evans is a mere 24 years old, is Tampa’s clear-cut #1 offensive weapon, and has missed only three games in four years. Those with short memories will view him as a low-end WR1 at best. I like him as a low-end WR1 at worst.
Elsewhere, DeSean Jackson is a trendy rebound candidate after enduring a (as expected) career-worst campaign. Having never been a target monster, DJax nonetheless has enjoyed huge games over the years as a #1 receiver. Not in Tampa Bay, where he plays second fiddle to Evans and is no longer in his prime. Add in an ascending Chris Godwin, and you have to wonder if DJax will fade into fantasy obscurity by Week 12. That’s my view of things—that Godwin, with his significantly lower ADP, is the bargain to target late in drafts. With DJax sidelined in last year's final two games, Godwin picked up 209 yards and a score on 10 catches. He should win the slot starting job over Adam Humphries this summer. Experts inconceivably list DJax as the 49th best WR, while Godwin is buried at 68th. They're wrong: Godwin (inconceivably owning a WR-84 ADP) likely will outperform DJax. Meanwhile, rookie Justin Watson is a name to watch if a starter gets hurt.
Somehow the Bucs fielded two fantasy-relevant TEs in 2017: Cameron Brate was a low-end TE1 and led the team in touchdowns. Rookie O.J. Howard posted respectable fantasy numbers six times despite limited usage. In March Tampa handed Brate a six-year, $41 million contract, meaning he’s not going anywhere. Unfortunately for Brate and fantasy managers, neither is Howard. Expect a 2018 regression for the TD-dependent Brate thanks to red-zone rebounds for Evans and an improved running game, as well as a modestly ascending Howard. That makes Brate and Howard undraftable in 12-team leagues.