Five Biggest Questions
1. Which QB will rise to the top?
2. Is LeSean McCoy a reliable RB1?
3. Will Chris Ivory make any meaningful fantasy impact?
4. Will Kelvin Benjamin regain his former WR2 status?
5. Is Zay Jones draftable?
It’s been 19 years since Buffalo won 10+ games. They might have gotten there last year if Head Coach Sean McDermott hadn’t benched Tyrod Taylor midseason for wholly unprepared rookie Nathan Peterman. This year will be worse for a host of reasons, starting with a difficult schedule that probably will leave them no better than 2-6 at the halfway point.
From a fantasy perspective, this will impact the QB battle between Peterman, "prized" free-agent signee A.J. McCarron, and prized #7 overall pick Josh Allen. Whoever starts Week 1—particularly if it’s Peterman or McCarron—could find himself benched by midseason. In most one-QB leagues and even some two-QB leagues, this is a situation to avoid. McCarron was paid backup money this offseason and is a longshot to achieve weekly QB2 production in this offense. Allen might not be any better, at least this year. And despite some camp rumblings suggesting otherwise, I'd be shocked if Peterman wins and keeps the job.
LeSean McCoy turns 30 next month and is coming off his worst per-game season since his 2009 rookie campaign. I’m always concerned when aging RBs with a lot of mileage are expected to carry a team’s offense. The veteran is fourth among all active RBs in career carries and is the only one still expected to sustain heavy usage. The QB downgrade and fairly big mess at receiver mean Buffalo once again will seek salvation from its backfield workhorse. But don’t let McCoy’s impressive fantasy totals fool you. He’s averaged 4.0, 4.2, and 4.4 YPC in three of his past four seasons. His upside is top 10-14. His downside is top 18-22--where no experts place him (his worst expert ranking is 17th). His production hinges somewhat on recent acquisition Chris Ivory earning a consistent change-of-pace role. Added this offseason, Ivory has never run behind a line as good as Buffalo’s and is capable on handoffs and as a pass-catching back. In other words, if Ivory gives the Bills a reason not to overwork McCoy, and given how much this offense will struggle to reach the red zone, McCoy is headed toward his worst per-game season since 2009.
I whiffed on Kelvin Benjamin last season, believing he’d continue to be a reliable WR2. The midseason trade to the Bills didn’t help. While in Carolina in 2017, Benjamin averaged four catches for 59 years. In Buffalo he averaged 2.7 for 36. He’ll enter 2018 with the promise of someone who’s the clear-cut #1 receiver, and with the risk of someone whose rookie year remains his best year. Zay Jones, Andre Holmes, and Jeremy Kerley round out one of the league’s weakest receiving corps. A second-round pick last year, Jones fell well short of his preseason hype and will now struggle to find consistent targets in a sub-par aerial attack. That said, no expert ranks him inside the top 60 in PPR, which is a little nutty given how easy it is for a #2 receiver to reach the top 60. I'd take the chance in very deep leagues where WR4/5's are scarce commodities. Meanwhile, unless Holmes or Kerley wins the #2 job, both are fantasy irrelevant heading into Week 1.
There aren’t many consistently middling fantasy producers like Charles Clay, who was last year’s 18th highest scoring TE. He might have cracked the top 12 if he’d remained healthy, but that’s what you get with Clay, who’s missed time in six of his seven NFL seasons and who’s often dealing with some nagging injury even when on the field. He’ll enter this season once again as a top 12-18 TE—a decent bye-week streamer in the right matchup, and a capable placeholder in deep leagues. Ignore his ridiculously low TE-28 ADP.